KC Joyner from ESPN Insider wrote an article this week wherein he implied that the Bears' success this season was the result of luck. Now, while that may be true to a certain extent, KC Joyner relied on one horrible stat to back up his claim: that Jay Cutler has thrown fewer interceptions after having his pass tipped and that the Bears defense intercepted more passes this year as a result of tipped passes. Now, I could waste the next few paragraphs, and precious seconds of you, the reader's, life refuting this absurd contention. Instead, there are three easy explanations as to why the Bears' marked improvement is not the result of mere luck.
1) Jay Cutler. Last year, Jay Cutler threw a mind boggling 26 interceptions. He threw drive killing interceptions in the red zone, he threw interceptions by trying to thread a pass into triple coverage (leading to roughly 90000000 comparisons to Brett Favre's "gun slinger mentality" - a made up phrase designed to put a positive spin on the terrible interceptions that marred Favre's career), and he somehow made fans yearn for the days of Kyle Orton.
This year, however, Cutler has cut down on the awful throws. He has made smart decisions and avoided making the critical mistake. Cutler has thrown 14 picks this year (still too high for anyone's liking) and he holds onto the ball too long and takes too many sacks (a common problem among young quarterbacks - see Rodgers, Aaron for another quarterback with that same flaw). But Cutler has a cannon. He is the first Bears quarterback for whom 3rd and 7 or longer does not seem like a more arduous task than climbing Mount Everest. Cutler has also shown improving chemistry with his receivers, Earl Bennett in particular, thereby allowing Cutler to trust his receivers and make the right read against the blitz.
The improved Jay Cutler, the Cutler that was advertised when the Bears traded their 2010 draft to obtain him from Denver, is reason number one that the Bears earned a first round bye.
2) Julius Peppers. KC Joyner can claim until he is blue in the face that tipped passes are the result of luck, but Julius Peppers has turned tipping passes into an art form. Add to that the fact that Peppers is an absolute nightmare for any left tackle, and he makes the defensive line roughly 10x better than they were last year. Peppers sacks are actually down this year (8 is the third lowest total of his career) but his impact on the Bears defense simply cannot be quantified. The Bears may have traded their 2010 draft for Jay Cutler, but in free agency, Julius Peppers made the biggest impact of any acquisition in the NFL this year.
3) Brian Urlacher. Urlacher may be overrated, and he may not even be the Bears' best linebacker (Lance Briggs says hello), but there is no denying the fact that the Bears defense struggled mightily in 2009 after Urlacher suffered a season ending injury in their opening loss to the Packers. In the Bears' cover 2, Urlacher has the responsibility of handling the entire short middle of the field in pass coverage (a role that Hunter Hillenmeyer could not handle in '09). Urlacher has the speed and instincts in pass coverage to handle that role. Urlacher is pretty close to the ideal middle linebacker for the Bears base Cover 2, and his mere presence makes the Bears defense better.
To sum up, the Bears defense essentially added two impact players on the defensive side of the ball, and one on offense. That is the main reason the Bears are 11-4 and have nothing to play for in Week 17. Are the Bears the team to beat in the NFC? No, Atlanta and New Orleans are probably better on paper. But the Bears are a good team and are deserving of their bye.
16...16 interceptions.
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