Deconstructing Jay Cutler

"Who am I...?"

When the bears traded for Jay Cutler following 2008 season, Bears fans rejoiced.  Overlooking his haircut, the Chicago faithful dreamed of a finally complete team.  When the traditionally effective ground game broke down, perhaps the passing game could be called on instead of the defense.  The city spoke of the "best quarterback since McMahon," who was, of course, merely a serviceable quarterback by the historical standards of NFL teams outside Chicago. Above all, Cutler was a guy with real name recognition, a Pro-Bowler for crying out loud!

But, a funny thing happened on the way to the Superbowl.  Jay Cutler got terrible.  Not "made young player mistakes," not "displayed flashes of brilliance with a few tweaks," but was actively bad.  He cranked up his interceptions by almost 50%.  He showed almost no ability to evade tacklers in the backfield, and little more to just get rid of the ball.  Pressure was a four-letter word, and the concept didn't make him rise to greatness, but to yell at his offensive line and make disgusted faces.  The Vanderbilt standout displayed no Southern charm, instead regularly diving right under the skin of reporters (and, inevitably, their readers).

And then another funny thing happened, this time on the way to a decent pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.  Jay Cutler held the reins of a pretty good offense on the team that was the class of the NFC North.  Granted, he didn't exactly hold those reins in his mouth, but it was a comfortable ride.  Cutler "cut down" his interceptions to one a game on average ( I know, but it felt pretty good).  His total yards were way down, but he seemed to be transitioning into Mike Martz's offense.  The Bears' once golden signal calling prospect looked to be turning into a golden actuality.  Sure, Cutler still had his detractors, but the Bears were winning, and kept winning, even in the playoffs.

Until they lost.  And lost badly.  The 21-14 score in the NFC title game was not reflective of how much worse the Bears played than their opponents.  Oh, and the opponents were the Packers.  Oh, oh, and Cutler sat practically the entire second half.  Welcome back, haters.  Sports radio was brimming with discussion of Cutler's (lack of) toughness and (lack of) leadership.  There were conflicting stories of whether Cutler deemed himself unfit to play, or whether it was Lovie Smith (the team stepped up and defended their quarterback, saying he wanted to get back in the game; and it finally came out that Smith was the culprit and Cutler had a sprained MCL).  All this, and third-stringer Caleb Hanie was on the field for both touchdowns.  Was it a case of incredibly poor luck?  Was the regular season a mirage?

The answer to both questions is no.  The Packers are an excellent team (who will be the favorites against a dominant Pittsburgh team in the Super Bowl).  The Bears were not the benefactors of fortune in the regular season, and they weren't on the short end, luckwise, in the championship game.  Chicago's got a good football team that needs some work in the off-season.  And, in a perfect world, some of that work would go towards the quarterback.

Everybody is in a huff about toughness, but Cutler is plenty tough.  He was sacked an astounding 52 times this season (that's 12 more than 2nd place Joe Flacco), and still managed to start all but one game.  He had a real nice stiff arm on a run in yesterday's game.  And I've never see him halfheartedly run after a defender that just intercepted the ball, Cutler sprints to tackle.  I'm sure you all see where this is going.

The fact is, Cutler's just not that good.  Don't get me wrong, he's a fine quarterback, but he's no franchise-maker.  In case you missed it, his toughness examples are due to his own mistakes.  No doubt, the offensive line has been atrocious at times, but nobody's ever accused Cutler of throwing the ball away too soon.  He's got an arm that makes it possible to throw off balance or across his body, but you never know what you'll get when he rolls out of the pocket; might be a nice stiff arm, might get lit up for a fumble.  And did I mention that he averaged just over an interception a game?

Kyle Orton on the bench

When Kyle Orton started amassing yards with the Broncos at a 300+ yards per game average, Chicago fans said, "Why didn't they keep Orton?"  Don't you remember what happened when he was in Chicago?  There was never a reason to believe that Orton had learned a new trick in Denver, just that they had a very friendly quarterback-yard-collecting (note: not touchdown producing) offense.  And yet, no one was calling to mind the similarities between Cutler and Orton's numbers with each team (compare Cutler's 2008 to Orton's 2009 and you'll see the only difference is the absence of Brandon Marshall).  The point is, people were asking for Orton back.  Pick an elite quarterback.  Manning?  Brady?  Rodgers?  Brees?  On any of their worst days, would you pine for Kyle Orton?  On any of their worst days, do you look back on Caleb Hanie and think, "Maybe we should give that guy a few more starts"?

Of course you wouldn't.  And you shouldn't heap too much on Jay Cutler either.  He's got some reasonable upside, but one stat the box score doesn't show is how many yards and touchdowns come on plays where Cutler puts some air under it and lets his receiver make a play.  This is one of the big reasons Cutler appeared so much more impressive once the offense started to feature Greg Olsen and Earl Bennett.  Although Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are exciting, their size makes them near useless on jump balls.  Hester is fantastic when his legs are already moving, meaning he could benefit greatly from a quarterback who could rifle a short pass right into his hip pocket and allow him to keep stride.  This will not happen under Cutler.  He's just not great on the short shots on the button, which is also partly why he can't get rid of the ball: he waits on someone getting open downfield.

So, what should we expect?  Realistically, more than a few bad decisions and some great looking touch passes deep that won't ever be regular.  Certainly a physical freak like Calvin or Andre Johnson could open up Cutler's most impressive attribute.  But, until that receiver comes along, let's all stop pretending like Jay Cutler is a soft underachiever, and recognize that he's an above average quarterback...for the Bears.