Three teams from what the Midwest make their playoff openers this weekend: the Colts, the Packers (boooo) and the Chiefs. And, believe it or not, I have opinions on all those teams: their games, their opponents, and, as it relates to the Packers, what the game means to the beloved Chicago Bears. Without further adieu, the Hobbserver tackles the Wild Card round.
Jets vs. Colts (8 p.m Saturday)
Will it be any surprise if this game ends up overhyped? Two under achieving teams that were trendy preseason Super Bowl picks. The Jets were featured in the preseason on Hard Knocks (where we learned that Rex Ryan swears a lot and were first introduced to Danny Woodhead, now starring for the Patriots). The Colts were coming off a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss.
The key matchups in this game are going to be (1) Peyton Manning vs. the Jets pass rush; and (2) Mark Sanchez vs. his overratedness.
If the Jets can get consistent pressure on Manning, he will struggle, and the Jets will win the game. In the past, Manning has had three or four options he has been able to rely on. Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Marvin Harrison. These are receivers Manning has clearly been on the same page with. This year, he has Reggie Wayne. And Reggie Wayne who has a one-way ticket to Revis Island this weekend. Darrell Revis will be isolated in single coverage with Wayne all game. And while Revis has not been as good this year as he was last year, he will be physical, and Wayne will have a very difficult time getting separation.
That leaves Pierre Garcon, Jacob Tamme, and Blair White. Garcon is the most experienced of the group and he torched the Jets in the playoffs last year (11 catches 151 yards and a touchdown), but he has not had the connection with Manning he had last year (everytime Garcon drops the ball, Manning gets what the Fiancé would refer to as his Murder Face - the Murder Face comes out frequently with Garcon). Tamme has been effective. And Blair White has shown flashes (two touchdowns against the Patriots in Week 11), but has not always been a consistent route runner (Murder Face!). The point here is that, when Manning faces pressure, he will need his receivers to be making the same read he is and, other than Wayne, that could be an issue.
The Colts running game could help pick up the slack, and it is somewhat improved (amazingly enough Dominic Rhodes has been effective since being plucked off the United Football League's roster and Joseph Addai is healthy), but even with Addai and Rhodes, the Colts run game is very, very weak.
So why do I think the Colts will win? Because Mark Sanchez is young (code word for not very good). "But... but," talking heads stammer, "he led game winning drives in three straight weeks AND he went to USC AND he plays in New York (and therefore must be really good)." Yes, Sanchez led game winning drives against the mighty Lions, Browns and Texans (weeks 9 through 11). He also threw all of 1 touchdown pass in the last 5 weeks of the season. The Jets will be able to run the ball. But if they fall behind, Sanchez is not the guy to lead them back. Especially not in Indianapolis. The Colts win this one.
Ravens vs. Chiefs (1 P.M. Sunday)
The Chiefs last won a playoff game in 1993. They last hosted a playoff game in 2003. So there is no doubt that Arrowhead is going to be loud Sunday. The Chiefs get things done by running the ball (a league best 164 yards per game) and they have a game breaking young receiver in Dwayne Bowe (1162 yards and 15 touchdowns). The Chiefs also feature an average defense.
The Ravens are very tough on the run (5th best in the NFL), spearheaded by Haloti Ngata in the middle who is an absolute destroyer. This is not, however, the Ravens defense of years past. They can be thrown on, they can be scored on. This game will serve as an interesting contrast in styles. The Chiefs run the ball well and the Ravens stop the run very well.
Offensively, the Ravens are frustrating to watch because they struggle to utilize their best players. Anquan Boldin is one of the better receivers in the game, and got off to an unbelievable start to the year. Since Week 14, 8 catches for 67 yards. Yuck. Ray Rice is their running back and he is a good multi purpose back amassing close to 1,800 total yards this year. But he only had 100 rushing yards in two games this year and the Ravens, at times, seemed to abandon the run altogether.
The Ravens will win this game for one simple reason. The Chiefs somehow managed to play only two playoff teams this year (and one was Seattle which hardly counts) and still managed to go only 10-6. The soft schedule helped them, they will have a hard time running the ball, and will lose to the Ravens Sunday.
Packers (boooo) vs. Eagles (4:30 P.M. Sunday)
If the Eagles win, the Bears play the Eagles. If the Packers win, the Bears play the Saints-Seahawks winner. As a Bears fan, I would rather play the Eagles than the Saints (assuming the 7-9 Seahawks do not beat the defending Super Bowl Champions Saturday - a good bet considering that the Seahawks finest attribute is "excellent crowd" - but if the Seahawks win, then, it hurts me to say, but Go Packers).
My favorite ESPN Insider writer, KC Joyner, wrote another inane article this week where he said that Michael Vick has been overrated this year. While that might be somewhat true (how could Vick have been an MVP candidate when he essentially missed 5 games), Vick amassed some astonishing numbers this year, rushing for almost 700 yards, throwing for over 3,000 and just 6 interceptions. But Vick is not a bad matchup for the Bears. He will get his numbers, but the Eagles do not have anyone to block Julius Peppers and he has the speed to give Vick fits. So, if you needed another reason to root against the Packers (and you shouldn't), there it is.
All kidding aside, this should be a great football game. Both teams score points in droves (though the Eagles can run the ball giving them a much more balanced attack) and both have attacking defenses that come up with turnovers. The Packers have not, however, been able to find a replacement in the running game for Ryan Grant (season ending injury in week 1) and have relied on one of the more potent passing attacks in the NFL to score points. There is no hotter wide receiver in the game than Greg Jennings (since Week 6, when Rodgers plays a full game, Jennings has had no fewer than 74 receiving yards in a game and amassed exactly 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns).
The deciding factor in this game will be whether the Packers can force Vick into turnovers. The Packers give up only 194 yards per game in the air and, since Week 8, have allowed no more than 20 points to any team (other than the Patriots). If Vick turns the ball over 2 or more times, the Packers will win this game. I say he doesn't. Go Eagles.
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