Big 10 Review: Week 5

This was a crazy week in the Big 10. Illinois loses at Indiana. Michigan State loses at home to Michigan. Penn State beats Wisconsin. John Shurna-less Northwestern takes Ohio State to the wire. With that being said, for most schools we have reached the halfway point in the Big 10 season. We're going to do the Review a bit differently this week; as you can see, the Power Rankings are broken up into tiers. Who is in the Big 10 race still, who should feel comfortable about their tournament hopes, and who is on the bubble.

Power Rankings

The Favorite

1) Ohio State (22-0, 9-0). Ohio State put up a statement win at home against Purdue, winning 87-64 and giving themselves a 2 game cushion at the top of the Big 10. Saturday, the Buckeyes went down to the wire, at Northwestern, with Northwestern missing John Shurna, and held on for a 58-57 win. Ohio State has a bad habit of letting inferior teams hang around, but their experience in close games is invaluable. Case in point, at the end of the Northwestern game, Ohio State's last possession was a thing of beauty. Thad Matta had enough confidence in his team to not use a timeout, Jon Diebler popped out to the wing behind a Sullinger screen and then fed the post. Sullinger was fouled, made 1 of 2 at the line, and the game was over. Ohio State will not panic in close games and that will serve them quite well in March. Ohio State hosts Michigan Thursday and then begins a key stretch of two games, at Minnesota Sunday, and then at Wisconsin February 12. Ohio State has only played four Big 10 road games thus far, at Iowa, at Indiana, at Michigan, and at Illinois. Only the win at Illinois counts as a quality win. The moral of the story, Ohio State still has work to do to win the Big 10.

The Contender

2) Purdue (18-4, 7-2). The Boilers suffered a humiliating defeat at Ohio State that dropped them two games back in the Big 10 race, but they rebounded with a comfortable 73-61 home win against Minnesota. We have mentioned this before in the Big 10 Review, but it bears repeating. E'Twaun Moore continues to struggle (7-26 from the floor this week) and when Moore struggles, Purdue will need consistent offense from someone other than JuJuan Johnson (22 against Ohio State, 24 against Minnesota) to win tough games. Against Ohio State, no one stepped up. Against Minnesota, Purdue got 15 points from Ryne Smith and 13 points from Lewis Jackson. Purdue, like Ohio State, has benefited from a soft early Big 10 road schedule (wins at Penn State and Michigan, losses at Minnesota and Ohio State) and will be tested this week with their only game a trip to Kohl and Wisconsin Tuesday. A win at Kohl would make Purdue's title hopes much brighter.

Safely in the Tournament

3) Wisconsin (15-5, 5-3). Wisconsin's contender status took a hit with the loss at Penn State. Wisconsin shot 32% in the second half, letting a 13 point lead slip. Jordan Taylor, Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil combined to score 45 of Wisconsin's points. The rest of the roster attempted a total of 13 shots. Now, Wisconsin has not suffered a bad loss all season so as things stand (at Illinois, at Michigan State, at Penn State), they are safely in the tournament, but they will need a few good road wins the rest of the way to pull themselves back into the Big 10 race. Wisconsin has a huge week ahead, hosting Purdue Tuesday and hosting reeling Michigan State Sunday. Wisconsin needs a 2-0 week to keep their dimming Big 10 title hopes alive.

4) Minnesota (16-5, 5-4). Minnesota moves ahead of #6 in the Power Rankings for the first time this season (largely due to the failures of the teams below them). Minnesota began life without Al Nolen with an 81-70 home win over Northwestern and then lost 73-61 at Purdue. Austin Hollins has taken Nolen's minutes and played well against Northwestern (though he struggled at Purdue). Trevor Mbakwe (17 points 12 rebounds at Purdue, 18 points 14 rebounds against Northwestern) and Blake Hoffarber (34 points total for the week) are the constants on Minnesota's roster. While Minnesota is essentially out of the Big 10 race, they have not suffered a bad loss in conference (they did lose at home to a poor Virginia team out of conference; in the Big 10, they lost at Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Ohio State and at Purdue). This week, Minnesota travels to Indiana Wednesday and hosts Ohio State Sunday. Minnesota needs to continue to take care of business to remain comfortably in the tournament.

On the Bubble

5) Penn State (12-8, 5-4). Penn State is much less talented than Michigan State and Illinois, but Penn State is clearly no fluke, with home wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin. Taylor Battle outplayed Jordan Taylor against Wisconsin and exploded for 20 second half points in the win. Now, I have Penn State ahead of Illinois and Michigan State as a result of (1) head to head wins over both; and (2) their worst loss (at Michigan) is better than Illinois (at Indiana) or Michigan State (home against Michigan). With that being said, Penn State has a long road to climb to make the tournament. To begin with, the unbalanced schedule kills them. They do not play Iowa or Indiana again. They play Northwestern twice and host Michigan, but their other 6 games are against the top half of the Big 10. They also have to explain losses at Mississippi (1-5 in the SEC) and home against Maine (though Maine is 8-1 in the American East). Penn State travels to Champaign Tuesday and hosts Michigan Sunday as they look to continue their dream season.

6) Illinois (14-7, 4-4). Ugh. That is all I can say after the 52-49 loss at Indiana. Demetri McCamey has been awful the past few games (2-11 against the Hoosiers) but in the past, McCamey has managed to create offense for his teammates when his shot has not been there. Well, he was limited to 3 assists against Indiana and did not seem the slightest bit interested in attacking the basket. For a team that has a limited number of creators, the Illini need McCamey to win games. They need McCamey creating offense for himself and his teammates and that has been missing. Last year, the Illini were one of the last teams left out of the NCAAs, in spite of 10 wins in the Big 10 (including a win at Wisconsin). Why did they end up on the wrong side of the bubble? Early season losses to Utah and Bradley (in addition to a home loss to Minnesota which probably put the Gophers in ahead of the Illini). Well, this year, the Illini are going to have to explain away losses to UIC (6-16 overall) and Indiana. To that end, the Illini have a critical 5 game stretch coming up. This week they host Penn State Tuesday and travel to Northwestern Saturday. They travel to Minnesota, and then host Purdue and Michigan in the following three games. The Illini must win at least 4 of those 5 games to feel comfortable again as they still have to play at Purdue, at Michigan State and at Ohio State down the stretch.

7) Michigan State (13-8, 5-4). Wow. Michigan State is living on the edge right now. After an ugly home loss to Michigan, the Spartans were extremely fortunate to escape East Lansing with an overtime win over Indiana, holding on 84-83. The Spartans were saved by some missed free throws by Jerimiah Rivers down the stretch, and a pair of made free throws by Draymond Green. Michigan State now has three overtime wins in the Big 10 (at Northwestern, home against Wisconsin and Indiana) and in two of them (Wisconsin and Indiana) they absolutely should have lost. The Spartans also lost their top scorer off the bench, Korie Lucious, to a season ending suspension. Michigan State travels to Iowa Wednesday and to Wisconsin Sunday as they try to keep their NCAA hopes alive.

NIT bound

8) Northwestern (13-8, 3-7). Northwestern had a rough week, losing at Minnesota and then dropping a heartbreaker at home against Ohio State (without John Shurna). We have written here before, and it bears repeating, Northwestern cannot afford moral victories. They will point to the Ohio State loss and the two losses to Michigan State (65-62 at home, 71-67 in overtime on the road) as the reason they are not on the bubble. Northwestern does have a slim NCAA chance still. They host Illinois Saturday (an absolute must win) and then have 5 straight games against Michigan, Indiana, Iowa and Penn State (twice). Northwestern probably needs all 6 of those games to have a chance at making the tournament.

9) Michigan (13-9, 3-6). Michigan had a huge week. They made their season, winning in East Lansing and then beat Iowa 87-73 on their home floor Sunday (in a game where they led Iowa by 21 midway through the second half before needing to withstand a late Iowa run - Iowa cut it to 8 late). Clearly the best week Michigan had all year. Michigan was 10-21 from three against the Spartans and 14-28 against Iowa. Darius Morris continues to do a little bit of everything (17 points 8 assists and 4 rebounds against Michigan State and 12 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds against Iowa). We said it last week, and will repeat it here. If Michigan holds teams to around 60 points, they will play some good teams very close. Michigan needs to get to 6 wins in the Big 10 to make the NIT (they would be 16-15 heading into the Big 10 tournament). They will have to work to get one of those wins in the coming week, traveling to Ohio State Tuesday and Penn State Sunday.

Looking for bright spots

10) Indiana (11-11, 2-7). The Hoosiers made their season this week with a 52-49 win over Illinois. That was Tom Crean's first win over a top 25 team since arriving in Bloomington. And credit Indiana. They out hustled Illinois and came up with every big rebound in the second half. Then, Indiana went out and forced Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing. A huge week for Indiana. Now, the question IU fans are asking is whether the Verdell Jones injury was addition by subtraction this week. Jones averages just under 13 points per game and leads the team with 3.6 assists per game. But he also averages 3.6 turnovers. Indiana will look to ride their momentum with two home games this week, hosting Minnesota on Wednesday and Iowa Saturday.

11) Iowa (8-13, 1-8). Back to the bottom. Iowa lost 65-51 at Penn State and 87-73 in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes have shown character all year, battling back in games against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan. Iowa's bright spot this season has been the occasionally brilliant (though often inconsistent) play of freshman Melsahn Basabe. Basabe struggled against Penn State (4 points and 2 rebounds) but he barely missed his 4th 20 point, 10 rebound performance of the Big 10 season, going for 25 points and 8 rebounds in the loss to Michigan. Basabe gives Iowa something to be optimistic about going forward. Iowa has an interesting week ahead. They host Michigan State Wednesday and travel to Bloomington to face Indiana Saturday, with a chance to net their second conference win.