Murphy's Pub: Evaluating Bruce Weber

Illinois lost to Northwestern today, at Northwestern 71-70, dropping Illinois to 5-5 in the Big 10, including losses to Indiana and Penn State and sending the Illini hurtling toward the bubble. But I am not here to talk about today's game. I am here to write about the past and the future. This is Bruce Weber's 8th season in Champaign, and I am going to take a completely unbiased look at Weber's tenure in Champaign.

Season 1 - 2003-2004 - (26-7, 13-3 in Big 10, Big 10 Champs, loss to Duke in the Sweet Sixteen). Weber's first season at Illinois was a success. Weber had trouble getting his team to buy in. But when they did, Deron Williams became the most improved player in the Big 10. A good start to the Weber regime.

Season 2 - 2004-2005 - (37-2, 15-1 in Big 10, Big 10 Champs, National runner up). Without a doubt the most successful season in Illinois history. Anyone that follow Illinois basketball knows everything about this team. Deron Williams, Luther Head, Dee Brown, James Augustine, and Roger Powell. The most talented team in Illinois history (arguably) and a starting five that was well suited to Weber's coaching. Bruce Weber earned a lot of goodwill out of this team. He did a phenomenal job with a great deal of talent.

Season 3 - 2005-2006 - (26-7, 11-5, 2nd in the Big 10, lost to Washington in the second round of the tournament). The last time Illinois won an NCAA tournament game with a 78-69 win over Air Force. Dee and Augustine were the holdovers from the '05 team and carried the Illini all year. Illinois blew a lead late against Washington, starting what would become a disturbing trend of letting late leads slip.

Season 4 - 2006-2007 - (23-12, 9-7, 4th in Big 10, lost to Virginia Tech in the first round of the tournament). Warren Carter and Richard McBride were the Seniors for the Illini, and the team leaders. As fans, we talked ourselves through an uninspiring season by saying, next year will be better. McBride and Carter are the problem. Young Jamar Smith, Brian Randle and Shaun Pruitt will make things better next year. Recruiting usually picks up two or three seasons after an amazing team. Poor excuses, all of them. Weber did alright with a not very talented team.

Season 5 - 2007-2008 - (16-19, 5-13, 9th in Big 10, no postseason). Pruitt and Randle were the Seniors and, again, we convinced ourselves that the seniors were the problem. That the recruiting was going to pick back up. This season was on the seniors, not on the coaching. This was a tough year to support Bruce Weber. Eric Gordon, Evan Turner and Derrick Rose were the high profile recruiting misses that year. And it was the freshman year for Weber's most important recruiting class: Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Bill Cole.

Season 6 - 2008-2009 - (24-10, 11-7, 2nd in the Big 10, loss to Western Kentucky in the first round of the tournament). Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem paired with Davis, Tisdale and McCamey in the starting lineup. Honestly, this was one of Weber's better coaching jobs. We Weber apologists had our ammunition. The Illini were losing Frazier (a warrior, but an extreme liability on the offensive end) but were returning 3 Sophomore starters. The last few years were the exception, not the rule. The glory days were returning. Weber had his best recruiting class ever coming in. DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, Joseph Bertrand, and Tyler Griffey. Bruce had figured out this recruiting thing, he was coaching at a high level, and the future looked bright.

Season 7 - 2009-2010 - (21-15, 10-8, 5th in Big 10, NIT quarterfinals). The Illini regressed. Tisdale and Davis did not make the strides we hoped for. Brandon Paul had an inconsistent freshman year; so did Tyler Griffey, but both gave us plenty of reason for optimisim. DJ Richardson was Big 10 Freshman of the Year. The Illini missed Chester Frazier, though. The recruiting was strong again. The Illini were going to be very good next year. Always next year.

Season 8 - 2010-2011 - (15-8, 5-5). Under achieving again, the Illini have lost games to UIC, Indiana, Penn State, and Northwestern. And, more than anything else, we are falling to blaming the seniors again. We blamed Warren Carter and McBride. We blamed Pruitt and Randle (who probably deserved the blame). We blamed Chester Frazier. And now we are blaming Tisdale, Davis and McCamey for the Illini under achieving.

So what's the score on Weber.

Positive Seasons

We can count Weber's first two seasons as wins. The third season, they met expectations. Since Dee Brown and James Augustine graduated, Weber's teams have under achieved every single year (with the sole exception of Chester Frazier's Senior year). Not a good score for Bruce.

Recruiting

Recruiting has more or less fixed itself. Weber has landed the Mr. Basketball in Illinois in back to back years (Paul and Richmond). He has his third straight top 25 class coming in next year.

Coaching Strategy

Bruce is steadfast in his strategies. Illinois runs a motion offense and they play man to man defense. The motion is designed to free up open shots for the guards and to get easy looks for the big men. But the motion is complicated and we always hear that the Freshman don't get it. The motion also does not provide a lot of offensive freedom to the guards to beat guys off the dribble. But the worst thing, to me, about Bruce as a coach is that I just don't think he would be fun to play for. He spends entire games on the sidelines yelling at his players about where they should be. You yell in practice to prepare your players for the game. During the game, you absolutely do not want your players looking over their shoulders trying to figure out what the coach is yelling about. Weber is not the only guy to coach like that, I just do not think it is effective coaching.

Player Development

Here is the ultimate black mark on Bruce Weber's record. Other than Deron Williams and Luther Head, name me a player that improved under Weber at Illinois. Carter and McBride were mediocre. Pruitt and Randle were the same. McCamey improved offensively, but never showcased any desire to play defense. Tisdale and Davis are essentially the same players they were as Sophomores. Even on this year's team, DJ Richardson and Tyler Griffey have regressed. And throughout all this, we have blamed the Seniors. Why? Because that's who Bruce told us to blame. Pruitt and Randle were highly regarded recruits. Weber could not get through to them. Tisdale, Davis and McCamey were starters on an overachieving Illini team as Sophomores. Dan Dakich said it best: Davis, Tisdale and McCamey never matured. They are still losing almost every single close game. Eventually, this has to fall on the coaching.

Bottom Line

At the end of the day, Bruce Weber is a very nice guy. He runs a clean program. He coached the most successful team in Illinois history. I really, really want to like him. But, what I can take away from the above, is that Weber needs a Deron Williams, a uniquely talented and driven basketball player, to win games at Illinois. Here is the bottom line: if Illinois does not make the tournament this year, or if they back their way in again, Weber needs to go. I can understand giving him another year to see what his vaunted '09 recruiting class can do as Juniors, without McCamey, Tisdale and Davis, but I cannot fathom Weber getting another year if the Illini continue to under achieve.

Illinois is not Duke, not North Carolina, not Kansas. They are not basketball royalty. But they do have a fertile base to recruit talent out of (Chicago) and they have a rabid fan base. It is not too much to ask for to have the Illini contend for the Big 10 title year in and year out. And it is not too much to ask for the Illini to contend for a National Title once or twice a decade. Going five years without winning an NCAA tournament game is inexcusable. Bruce may do enough to keep his job this year, but continuing mediocrity is not acceptable. Down at Murphy's Pub, we're drinking away the sting of another bad road loss tonight, something we have been doing way too often of late. Go Illini.