Heading into the final week of the Big 10 season, Purdue refuses to concede the title to Ohio State. Minnesota falls out of the bubble picture while Michigan and Penn State do enough to keep their hopes alive. Illinois and Michigan State still cannot make the final step to get solidly into the tournament. I expect 5 Big 10 teams (at least) to make the tournament, in spite of the stunning mediocrity displayed by teams 4-9 in this ranking. One week and the Big 10 tournament for the teams on the bubble to make their final case.
Co-Champs at Worst
(1) Ohio State (27-2, 14-2). Ohio State had convincing home wins this week over Illinois (89-70) and Indiana (82-61). The great thing about Ohio State is that anyone of their guys can beat you on a given night. Against Illinois, Buford had 17 in the first half and David Lighty had 17 in the second half. Against Indiana, Deshaun Thomas had 22. They have more weapons than anyone in the Big 10 and that is why they are the best team in the Big 10. Ohio State travels to Penn State Tuesday and hosts Wisconsin Sunday. The Big 10 title is there for the taking for the Buckeyes.
Still in the Hunt
(2) Purdue (24-5, 13-3). Purdue keeps pace with Ohio State, remaining a game behind, after picking up road wins at Indiana (72-61) and at Michigan State (67-47) this week. Purdue has really turned a corner over the last month. And while some of that credit goes to Big 10 Player of the Year candidate JaJuan Johnson (an unreal 20 points, 17 rebounds and 7 blocks against Michigan State), a good portion of the credit goes to Lewis Jackson. Jackson had 16 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds against Michigan State. Illinois and Michigan State in the last two weeks lost to Purdue in large part because they could not stay in front of Jackson. If Jackson maintains his high level of play, Purdue is going to be a very, very difficult out in the NCAA tournament. Purdue hosts Illinois Tuesday and travels to Iowa Saturday. With Ohio State hosting Wisconsin still, a two win week for Purdue could be enough to earn a share of the Big 10 title yet.
Playing for Seeding
(3) Wisconsin (22-6, 12-4). Wisconsin is just playing for seeding at this point, and they did not hurt themselves with a miracle road win over Michigan (53-52 after freshman Jon Gasser banked a three at the buzzer) and a comfortable home win over Northwestern, wrapping up a perfect Big 10 season at home. And that competition, believe it or not, is with Notre Dame and Purdue. Joe Lunardi, over at ESPN.com, currently has Wisconsin and Notre Dame as 3 seeds, but puts Wisconsin into the Denver pod and gives Notre Dame and Purdue the coveted spots in Chicago. Wisconsin closes with two road games, at Indiana Thursday and at Ohio State Sunday, in a game that will determine whether Purdue has a chance at the being co Big 10 Champs.
On the Bubble
(4) Michigan State (16-12, 8-8). Michigan State picked up an early week win at Minnesota. A win that had much more significance before Minnesota lost at home to Michigan over the weekend. The Spartans were thoroughly outplayed by Purdue over the weekend in East Lansing (losing 67-47), a loss that serves to keep Michigan State on the bubble. For another week, Michigan State and Illinois can be 4(a) and 4(b) in the Power Rankings. The issue for Michigan State is that, other than Kalin Lucas, they do not have a decent scorer. Lucas had 23 against Purdue. But they need much, much more from Durrell Summers. Michigan State hosts Iowa Wednesday and then travels to Ann Arbor Saturday. Two wins in the coming week for Michigan State and they officially play themselves off the bubble.
(5) Illinois (18-11, 8-8). Not much happened for Illinois this week. They lost handily to Ohio State in Columbus (in spite of making 8 of their first 9 threes) and then they picked up a comfortable home win over Iowa. The story for the Illini continues to be turnovers (16 against Ohio State, 13 against Iowa). The Illini close the Big 10 season by traveling to Purdue Tuesday and then hosting Indiana Saturday. Two wins puts the Illini comfortably in the tournament. 1 win puts them in pretty good shape to back their way into the NCAAs.
(6) Penn State (15-12, 8-8). Penn State won their only game this week, 66-52 at Northwestern. Now, I know that our reader is asking, "How can Penn State be above Michigan who beat them twice?" The difference is that Penn State has better wins. Home against Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan State trumps Michigan's road win at East Lansing. Penn State hosts Ohio State Tuesday and travels to Minnesota Sunday. Penn State probably needs both to feel decent about their tournament hopes.
(7) Michigan (18-12, 8-9). Michigan is clawing and fighting to make themselves relevant in this year's tourney picture. Michigan picked up an enormous win at Minnesota Saturday that more or less put the final nail in Minnesota's tournament coffin. But the real story for Michigan was another missed opportunity. The Gasser three at the buzzer (banked in by the way) in Ann Arbor gave Michigan a 53-52 loss. Michigan is two plays away from being in great shape. The missed three at the buzzer at Illinois the week before and the aforementioned banked in three. Michigan has a tournament resume full of near misses. But their only wins against the teams above them in the standings are two over Penn State and a win at East Lansing. Michigan closes the Big 10 season with a home game against Michigan State. A game Michigan needs to have to keep their bubble hopes alive.
Need to win the Big 10 Tournament
(8) Minnesota (17-11, 6-10). Minnesota had a crucial week this week, with home games against the state of Michigan. A 53-48 loss to Michigan State and a 70-63 loss to Michigan later, the Gophers are pretty much off the bubble. Minnesota has now lost 7 of their last 8, 4 of them at home. We've said this here before, but Al Nolen's injury and Devoe Joseph's transfer killed the Gophers. Minnesota travels to Northwestern Wednesday and hosts Penn State Sunday. The Gophers need both those games and a decent showing in the Big 10 tournament to get back into the tournament discussion.
(9) Northwestern (16-12, 6-11). Northwestern suffered a home loss to Penn State (66-52) and a road loss at Wisconsin (78-63). This season started with such promise for the Wildcats. After Kevin Coble chose not to return for his final season, and John Shurna never appeared to be the same player after an early season injury, Northwestern's season faded into NIT obscurity. So the Wildcats need to win the Big 10 tournament to make their first ever NCAA tournament. Northwestern hosts Minnesota Wednesday to finish their season.
(10) Iowa (10-18, 3-13). Iowa lost their only game this week, falling 81-68 in Champaign. Melsahn Basabe had 17 points and 7 rebounds in the loss. He is going to be a tough player over the next three years. Iowa travels to Michigan State Tuesday and hosts Purdue Saturday. Iowa is still just playing for the future.
(11) Indiana (12-17, 3-13). Indiana suffered a home loss to Purdue and a road loss to Ohio State. Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls look like a good future core for the Hoosiers. Indiana closes by hosting Wisconsin and traveling to Illinois. Indiana has a chance to truly ruin Illinois' season by managing a season sweep of the Illini.
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