Another crazy week in the Big 10. Indiana beats Minnesota, Iowa beats Michigan State by 20 (and wins at Indiana), Illinois loses at Northwestern, and Penn State suffers a home loss to Michigan. Now, the bubble is weak this year, extremely so. And every conference but the Big East appears to be somewhat down (and, as a short digression, I'm over the Big East - when you have 16 teams in your conference you are, by the law of averages, going to have more good teams than a 12 team conference). Thus, no matter how mediocre the middle of the Big 10 is (or maybe how not terrible the bottom of the Big 10 is), they will still get a minimum of 5 teams into the tournament, maybe even 6 (Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com had 7 Big 10 teams in during his midweek bracketology). Now with that being said, same format as last week, sorting out the hierarchy of the Big 10.
The Favorite
(1) Ohio State (24-0, 11-0). Ohio State is really, really good. They beat Michigan at home (62-53) and then passed their second Big 10 road test, winning handily at the Barn in Minneapolis. Here is the thing about Ohio State. They have the best player in the Big 10 and a go to scorer (Sullinger) but they have three other players that can carry them on a given night (Diebler, Buford and Lighty). That's something that no else in the Big 10, and maybe 3 or 4 other schools in the entire country can boast. The plethora of scorers is why Ohio State closes out close games better than anyone in the Big 10. But they are not just scorers. Buford, Lighty and Aaron Craft are all extremely talented perimeter defenders. The Buckeyes are tough to score on and they can beat you a lot of ways offensively. The glimmer of hope for Purdue and Wisconsin to get back into the Big 10 race is fading. Ohio State plays once in the coming week, at Kohl on Saturday. A win at Kohl would pretty much shut the door on the Big 10 race.
Still in the Hunt
(2) Purdue (18-5, 7-3). Purdue's title hopes took another hit this week, suffering a close loss at the Kohl Center to Wisconsin, 66-59. Purdue was right there late, up 59-58 with 1:10 left before Wisconsin pulled away. JaJuan Johnson scored 23 points and E'Twaun Moore had 15 in the loss. The Boilers have a key week coming up, home against Indiana (rivalry games have a tendency to play close) and at Illinois. A 2-0 week for Purdue could get them back into the hunt.
(3) Wisconsin (17-5, 7-3). Big week for the Badgers. They held on for the aforementioned home win over Purdue and then absolutely crushed Michigan State 82-56. What new, Wisconsin holds serve at the Kohl Center. We say this every week, but Jordan Taylor, Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankovil make a pretty solid core of scorers. The Badgers look to get back into the Big 10 race next week. At Iowa and home against Ohio State. A 2-0 week and the Badgers' slim title hopes get a bit of a boost.
On the Bubble
(4) Illinois (15-8, 5-5). The Illini had a big win over Penn State early in the week and then let a game slip away at Northwestern, losing 71-70 (Brandon Paul scored 21 points in the loss - note to Bruce Weber, time for Brandon Paul to get 30 minutes a game). But here is the thing for Illinois. This was actually a decent week for their tournament hopes. Michigan State lost by 20 at Iowa and was destroyed by Wisconsin. Penn State, in addition to the Illinois loss, lost at home to Michigan. Minnesota lost at Indiana. The Illini actually improved their tournament position entering a critical week. The Illini play at Minnesota Thursday and host Purdue Sunday. Last year, Illinois' home loss to Minnesota probably cost them a tournament berth; returning the favor at the Barn would do wonders for the Illini. Add to that a home game against Purdue. If the Illini go 2-0 this week, their tournament hopes will be in a very good place. An 0-2 week would be a disaster. Needless to say, this is a huge week for the Illini.
(5) Minnesota (16-7, 5-6). The Gophers had an awful week. They joined Illinois in the ranks of schools that lost at Indiana (60-57). And they also joined Illinois in the ranks of schools that suffered home losses to Ohio State (82-69). Minnesota has now lost three straight and the adversity they suffered this season (Mbakwe's legal issues, Devoe Joseph transferring, Al Nolen's injury) may be catching up to them. So that's the bad news. The good news for Minnesota, they have only one game remaining against a Big 10 opponent above them (home against Illinois). In the coming week, Minnesota hosts Illinois Thursday and travel to Iowa Sunday. Given the relatively weak remaining schedule, Minnesota's tournament hopes seem to be on fairly stable footing, but they still need to right the ship quickly.
(6) Penn State (12-10, 5-6). Here is where things begin to get dicey in the Big 10. Penn State has been a nice story this year. They have huge Big 10 home wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin, but this week they took a huge step back, losing at home to the Illini 68-50 and losing at home to Michigan 65-62 (in spite of 31 points from Taylor Battle). Michigan swept Penn State this year. Like Illinois, Penn State has a critical week ahead, at East Lansing Thursday and home against Penn State Sunday. If Penn State manages a split or better, they are still ok. An 0-2 week and Penn State's tournament hopes will fade into the great beyond.
(7) Michigan State (13-10, 5-6). The Spartans have lost 5 of their last 6, and the only win was a fluke, winning 84-83 in overtime against Indiana. But this week for the Spartans was a disaster, not because they lost, but because of the way they lost. If you are a decent team, you do not lose to Wisconsin 82-56. And you especially do not lose at Iowa by 20 (a loss Tom Izzo called the worst in his tenure at Michigan State). Izzo may have lost this team and is running out of time to pull his annual rabbit out of his hat. Michigan State plays just once this week, home against Penn State Thursday. Another must win for the Spartans as they teeter toward the NIT.
Back in the Hunt
(8) Northwestern (14-8, 4-7). Northwestern and Michigan could really be 8a and 8b here, and, going under the above rationale that the Big 10 will put a minimum of 5 teams into the tournament, both Michigan and Northwestern are the beneficiaries of awful weeks from teams 4 through 7 above them. We have written here for 6 weeks that Northwestern needed a statement win, and this week they finally got one against the upper echelon of the Big 10, beating Illinois 71-70. Juice Thompson put the Wildcats on his back, 5-8 from three and 22 points later, Northwestern had put the Illini away. Northwestern now enters a stretch of 5 extremely winnable games (at Michigan, at Penn State, home against Iowa, at Indiana, home against Penn State). This week they travel to Ann Arbor Wednesday, and then to Penn State Sunday. These are the games Northwestern must win in order to get back into the tournament picture. Northwestern took a big step forward this week toward getting back on the bubble, but there is lots of work to do still.
(9) Michigan (14-10, 4-7). The Wolverines took a hard fought loss at Ohio State this week (62-53) before escaping Penn State with a 65-62 win. Darius Morris had 23 points in the win over Penn State. Like Northwestern, Michigan has an important week ahead as they look to keep their slim tournament hopes alive, hosting Northwestern Wednesday and hosting Indiana Saturday. Michigan and Northwestern both have opportunities to take advantage of the slips from the schools above them in the coming week.
Silver Linings
(10) Iowa (10-13, 3-8). This is the week Iowa will remember all year. They absolutely dominated Michigan State, winning 72-52, and then completed a season sweep of Indiana with a 64-63 win at Indiana. The Hobbserver's favorite Big 10 freshman, Melsahn Basabe, had his fourth 20-10 in Big 10 play against the Hoosiers, with 20 points and 13 rebounds. Iowa is not making any postseason tournament this year. No NCAA, no NIT, but Fran McCaffery will build on this past week. Iowa hosts Wisconsin Wednesday and hosts Minnesota Sunday.
(11) Indiana (12-12, 3-8). Indiana is coming into their own. In spite of losing Christian Watford (their leading scorer and rebounder) indefinitely to a hand injury, the Hoosiers stole a home win against Minnesota. But the Hoosiers still move back into the Big 10 cellar by virtue of a season sweep at the hands of the Hawkeyes. Jordan Hulls had 24 in the loss to Iowa. Indiana had a balanced attack against Minnesota (five players scored between 8 and 12 points in the win). Tom Crean is building a solid foundation for the future. But Indiana will have to live with moral victories for the time being. The Hoosiers have two road games this week: at Purdue Tuesday and at Michigan Saturday.
Until next week.
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