The Baseball Rule Applied to the NBA Draft

I was watching College Gameday this morning (at East Lansing ahead of the Illinois-Michigan State game tonight) and the discussion turned to the impact of "one and done" on the college game. The panel (Rece Davis, Hubert Davis, Jay Bilas and Digger Phelps) all agreed that the way to "fix" the college game is to implement the baseball rule for the NBA draft. For those unaware, the MLB draft allows players to go into the draft directly out of high school. If they go to a 4 year college, they cannot become draft eligible again until after their Junior year (the loophole is that by attending Junior College, you become draft eligible after one season). Applying that to the NBA is a great idea... in theory. And a terrible idea in practice.

Unfortunately, comparing the MLB draft to the NBA draft is comparing apples to oranges. Baseball is able to draft an 18 year old kid based on his potential and then stash him in the minors for a couple years to allow him to develop into a Major League player. The NBA has no such system (other than the college game and the D League which is widely considered to be a joke). As such, the Leon Smiths, the Gerald Greens and the Eddy Currys of the world are still going to head directly to the draft and are still going to waste their potential because, with a limited 12 man roster, NBA clubs cannot afford to wait for a high potential kid to develop and cannot give them meaningful game experience. Until the NBA has a legitimate minor league system (and nothing makes it appear as though this is forthcoming), applying the MLB rule to the NBA draft is a massive failure. Additionally, the MLB draft is approximately 300 rounds (actually 50), while the NBA draft is two rounds. Again, apples and oranges.

Second, there are a lot of college athletes (in all sports) who come from poor economic backgrounds. When faced with the choice of jumping at guaranteed NBA first round money, three years in college, or one year in Junior College (applying the MLB rule as it actually applies), what you will see is more kids throwing their name in the hat directly out of high school, and an increase in the talent at the Junior College level. Thus, the actual impact on the product in college basketball may end up nominal at best.

Third, the NBA has been down this road before. The NBA does not want 18 year olds in the league. For every Lebron, Kobe and Kevin Garnett, there are dozens of guys who failed. The NBA likes guaranteeing a year of college coaching somewhere and an extra year for scouts to evaluate players. Without the NBA being on board, the idea fails.

The only way the Baseball Rule works (and I have advocated this position before in this Blog and countless times in heated bar discussions) is if the NBA is willing to commit to a minor league. Now, for the College Gameday crew, that argument does not hold any weight because it will contribute to diluting the NCAA basketball product in the exact same way that the one and dones dilute the product. But if you are looking out for the best interests of the athlete, they are best served by either (1) maintaining the current system or (2) enacting a true NBA affiliated minor league mirroring the MLB. Sloppy analysis ESPN Gameday crew.