It's a three team race in the Big 10 after Wisconsin knocked off Ohio State at Kohl. Purdue picks up a huge road win in Champaign. The Illini pick up a huge road win at the Barn. And Michigan officially enters the bubble picture. The Big 10 race is shaping up.
The Favorite
1) Ohio State (24-1, 11-1). Ohio State's unbeaten season is over. They had a 15 point lead with 13 minutes left until fire balls literally began to come out of Jordan Taylor and the Buckeyes let the game get away, losing 71-67. So what does this mean? Not a whole damn lot. There is no shame in losing at Kohl. And barring a disaster, Ohio State will still get a number 1 seed in the tournament. Ohio State hosts Michigan State on Tuesday and then travels to West Lafayette and Purdue Sunday. The game at Purdue is absolutely huge. If the Buckeyes win at Purdue, the Big 10 race is over.
The Contenders
2) Purdue (20-5, 9-3). The Boilers outplayed Indiana at home 67-53 and then picked up a huge win in Champaign, winning 81-70. JaJuan Johnson had 24 points, E'Twaun Moore had 20. But the real hero for Purdue was Lewis Jackson. Illinois could not stop his dribble penetration and his 10 points and 5 assists do not actually quantify his contribution in the win. Purdue has a huge week this week. They host Wisconsin Wednesday and Ohio State Sunday. If Purdue goes 2-0 this week, they have a chance at winning the Big 10 yet.
3) Wisconsin (19-5, 9-3). Wisconsin escaped Iowa City with a 62-59 win in overtime at midweek. Jordan Taylor then caught fire at home against Ohio State, scoring 18 points over an 8 minute stretch in the second half. Yes, Hobbserver readers, Jordan Taylor is the best guard in the league. Wisconsin travels to Purdue Wednesday and then hosts Penn State Sunday. A win at Purdue keeps Wisconsin alive in the Big 10 race. Now, I allow myself a short digression on Wisconsin. Wisconsin almost never, ever loses at Kohl. If they pick up a couple road wins every year, they are a 4 seed in the tournament.
On the Bubble
4) Illinois (16-9, 6-6). Illinois picked up a huge win at Minnesota at midweek and then squandered a huge opportunity to solidify their tournament chances with a home loss to Purdue. Demitri McCamey acted like he cared at Minnesota, attacking the basket and scoring 17 points. He was awful against Purdue. Just awful. Also, a note to Bruce Weber and the Illini. Lewis Jackson has no jump shot, none. But he is as fast a player as there is in the Big 10. So why guard him 20+ feet from the basket when, obviously, no one on the team could guard him out there? Make the adjustment that had to be made! Jackson's penetration was a huge reason the Boilers scored an insane 54 points in the second half. Along the same vein, McCamey has 6 inches on Jackson. But Illinois did not once try to isolate him in the post. Frustrating. Illinois has a very important week ahead. They host Michigan Wednesday and travel to Michigan State Saturday. If Illinois picks up two wins this week, they can play themselves off the bubble.
5) Minnesota (17-8, 6-7). Minnesota suffered their second home loss of the Big 10 campaign, dropping a tough game to Illinois. Turnabout from last year perhaps. If the Selection Committee is choosing between Illinois and Minnesota, that loss will send the Gophers to the NIT. Minnesota ended their 4 game losing streak in conference Sunday when they won at Iowa 62-45. Big week ahead for the Gophers. Just one game, but it is their last tough road test, at Penn State Thursday. Minnesota has a soft remaining schedule (no games against anyone ahead of them in this power ranking), so barring some upsets, the Gophers are probably heading to the NCAAs for the second straight year. But they have plenty of work to do yet.
6) Michigan State (14-10, 6-6). Michigan State picked up a huge win at home against Penn State, 75-57. Pretty much every game from here on out is a desperate situation for the Spartans. In the week ahead, they travel to Ohio State Tuesday and then host Illinois Saturday. The week after that, the Spartans travel to Minnesota and host Purdue. Michigan State needs to go 2-2 or better over those 4 games to feel good about their tournament chances.
7) Michigan (16-10, 6-7). Michigan, welcome to the bubble. The Wolverines took care of business this week with home wins over Northwestern (75-66) and Indiana (73-69). Darius Morris is a pretty good player and just fills up the stat sheet week after week. Still for Michigan, they lack a statement win to hang their hat on. They have one win over a team above them in the Big 10 standings (at Michigan State), and one decent win in the non-conference schedule (at a Clemson team that is on the bubble themselves). But Michigan closes with plenty of chances to get a decent win. In the coming week, they travel to Illinois Wednesday and to Iowa City Saturday. Then, they play Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State to finish the season. If Michigan is going to make the tournament, they need at least 3 wins over their last 5.
8) Penn State (13-11, 6-7). This could be Penn State's last week on the bubble. After a disheartening early week loss to Michigan State, Penn State kept their fading hopes alive with a 65-41 win over a broken Northwestern team. Penn State has been a great story this year, but with the bad out of conference losses, they face an uphill battle to get into the tournament. Penn State hosts Minnesota Thursday and travels to Wisconsin Sunday. Penn State probably needs both those games to keep their fading hopes alive.
Need to Win the Big 10 Tourney
9) Northwestern (14-10, 4-9). We said last week this was a huge week for the Wildcats. Riding high after their upset win over Illinois, the Wildcats bubble officially burst with losses at Michigan and at Penn State. Northwestern can clinch an NIT berth with 2 wins this week (home Iowa, at Indiana), but any other postseason will require winning the Big 10 Tournament, or waiting at least another year.
10) Iowa (10-15, 3-10). Iowa came very close to playing spoiler at home early in the week, letting their game against Wisconsin slip away (Melsahn Basabe had another double-double - 13 points, 11 rebounds) and then lost handily at home to Minnesota. For as little talent and experience as Iowa has, the first year under Fran McCaffery has been much better than expected. The Hawkeyes travel to Evanston Thursday and host Michigan Saturday, trying to play spoiler the rest of the way.
11) Indiana (12-14, 3-10). Indiana lost to archrival Purdue and then came back from down 22 to ultimately lose by 4 at Michigan. Indiana, much like Iowa, is playing hard every night. Christian Watford looks like a future first team all Big 10 player. But the Hoosiers will take their lumps for another 5 games. After hosting Northwestern in their lone game this week, they close with Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois.
Until next week.
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