CUBS LAND GARZA!

As recently as yesterday, reports suggested that the talk of Matt Garza heading to the North Side were just talk.  But, Cubs' brass has slept little since the scathing mid-offseason assessment of the Hobbserver.  They had to do something!  What they did was nothing short of anti-Cub: they went out and unloaded overrated prospects while they were still overrated and got a guy who is a perfect fit for Chicago.

Before going any further, let's talk details.  The Cubs will get Garza, minor leaguer Fernando Perez, and another minor leaguer for RHP Chris Archer, OF Brandon Guyer, C Robinson Chirinos, SS Hak-Ju Lee, and OF Sam Fuld.  In case you're wondering who these guys are, and how much it'll hurt, here are some quick hits.

Fuld is the only of these five with any major league experience.  He's a good player, but is more of a pinch runer than anything.  Very intelligent, above average defensive range, slightly below average arm, not enough power to knock it out of Wrigley, good plate discipline.  He'll get more time with Joe Maddon, but he's likely to never be an every day guy.

Archer was clearly the centerpiece of this deal.  He's Baseball America's top 2011 prospect in the Cubs system.  What are they doing?  Jim Hendry might just be as deluded as everyone else (and therefore be trying to sabotage the team as usual), but here's why this is brilliant.  Chris Archer went 15-3 with a 2.34 era last year, splitting time between high-A and AA ball.  But these numbers are so drastically different than the rest of his career, it's likely an aberration.  Meanwhile, Trey McNutt (BA's No.3 prospect in the Cubs' system) went 10-1 with a 2.48 era and 132 Ks in 116.1 IP and wasn't touched.  The kicker, this is totally par for the course with McNutt.  Outstanding.

Hak-Ju Lee is likely yet another Asian player who looks great when he plays with or against his own country (Korea), looks outstanding when he first faces MLB players, then fades away as MLB pitchers figure out his gimmick (seriously, name a non-Ichiro player from the Japanese or Korean leagues who didn't follow this path; pitchers included).

Brandon Guyer is just a lousy plate discipline version of Sam Fuld, but with more power.  (See many previous Cubs mentions to get the idea of how the Hobbserver sees the Cubs' OBP woes).

And Chirinos is a nice player, but he's old enough that we know he's never exploding, and Soto is the starter for the foreseeable future anyway.

In return?  The Cubs got a likely number two starter who went 15-10 with a 3.91 era in the AL East in 2011.  He pitched 204 innings and gave up only 193 hits.  Garza doesn't solve the Cubs' ace issue (Zambrano is the presumptive Opening Day starter, but his rollercoasters always result in shuffling), but it really makes the rest of their rotation look nice.  2,3,4,5 should go Garza, Dempster, Gorzelanny, Wells.  The last of these was a surprise in '09 and came back to earth in '10, so he may end up a Glendon Rusch type.  But, that brings up the best part:

The Cubs kept Andrew Cashner.  At least one half of the Hobbserver feels that 2011 is Cashner's coming out party (don't do it Sox fans).  Seemingly every top player the Cubs were after this offseason had Cashner on the price tag. 

Does this make the Cubs relevant in the 2011 NL Central?  Probably not, with what Milwaukee and St. Louis are sending out every day.  But, it appears to be an actual long-term plan for Chicago (something they have not had in my adult life).  When a team is rebuilding, it likes to start with the most important players because it ensures tickets still get sold.  The Cubs have the luxury of a stadium that does that anyway, so they can build with the bottom of the rotation first.  It will be a lot easier to lure a Matt Latos type in the coming years if he's the finishing touch and not the cornerstone.