Heading into the final week of the Big 10 season, Purdue refuses to concede the title to Ohio State. Minnesota falls out of the bubble picture while Michigan and Penn State do enough to keep their hopes alive. Illinois and Michigan State still cannot make the final step to get solidly into the tournament. I expect 5 Big 10 teams (at least) to make the tournament, in spite of the stunning mediocrity displayed by teams 4-9 in this ranking. One week and the Big 10 tournament for the teams on the bubble to make their final case.
Co-Champs at Worst
(1) Ohio State (27-2, 14-2). Ohio State had convincing home wins this week over Illinois (89-70) and Indiana (82-61). The great thing about Ohio State is that anyone of their guys can beat you on a given night. Against Illinois, Buford had 17 in the first half and David Lighty had 17 in the second half. Against Indiana, Deshaun Thomas had 22. They have more weapons than anyone in the Big 10 and that is why they are the best team in the Big 10. Ohio State travels to Penn State Tuesday and hosts Wisconsin Sunday. The Big 10 title is there for the taking for the Buckeyes.
Still in the Hunt
(2) Purdue (24-5, 13-3). Purdue keeps pace with Ohio State, remaining a game behind, after picking up road wins at Indiana (72-61) and at Michigan State (67-47) this week. Purdue has really turned a corner over the last month. And while some of that credit goes to Big 10 Player of the Year candidate JaJuan Johnson (an unreal 20 points, 17 rebounds and 7 blocks against Michigan State), a good portion of the credit goes to Lewis Jackson. Jackson had 16 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds against Michigan State. Illinois and Michigan State in the last two weeks lost to Purdue in large part because they could not stay in front of Jackson. If Jackson maintains his high level of play, Purdue is going to be a very, very difficult out in the NCAA tournament. Purdue hosts Illinois Tuesday and travels to Iowa Saturday. With Ohio State hosting Wisconsin still, a two win week for Purdue could be enough to earn a share of the Big 10 title yet.
Playing for Seeding
(3) Wisconsin (22-6, 12-4). Wisconsin is just playing for seeding at this point, and they did not hurt themselves with a miracle road win over Michigan (53-52 after freshman Jon Gasser banked a three at the buzzer) and a comfortable home win over Northwestern, wrapping up a perfect Big 10 season at home. And that competition, believe it or not, is with Notre Dame and Purdue. Joe Lunardi, over at ESPN.com, currently has Wisconsin and Notre Dame as 3 seeds, but puts Wisconsin into the Denver pod and gives Notre Dame and Purdue the coveted spots in Chicago. Wisconsin closes with two road games, at Indiana Thursday and at Ohio State Sunday, in a game that will determine whether Purdue has a chance at the being co Big 10 Champs.
On the Bubble
(4) Michigan State (16-12, 8-8). Michigan State picked up an early week win at Minnesota. A win that had much more significance before Minnesota lost at home to Michigan over the weekend. The Spartans were thoroughly outplayed by Purdue over the weekend in East Lansing (losing 67-47), a loss that serves to keep Michigan State on the bubble. For another week, Michigan State and Illinois can be 4(a) and 4(b) in the Power Rankings. The issue for Michigan State is that, other than Kalin Lucas, they do not have a decent scorer. Lucas had 23 against Purdue. But they need much, much more from Durrell Summers. Michigan State hosts Iowa Wednesday and then travels to Ann Arbor Saturday. Two wins in the coming week for Michigan State and they officially play themselves off the bubble.
(5) Illinois (18-11, 8-8). Not much happened for Illinois this week. They lost handily to Ohio State in Columbus (in spite of making 8 of their first 9 threes) and then they picked up a comfortable home win over Iowa. The story for the Illini continues to be turnovers (16 against Ohio State, 13 against Iowa). The Illini close the Big 10 season by traveling to Purdue Tuesday and then hosting Indiana Saturday. Two wins puts the Illini comfortably in the tournament. 1 win puts them in pretty good shape to back their way into the NCAAs.
(6) Penn State (15-12, 8-8). Penn State won their only game this week, 66-52 at Northwestern. Now, I know that our reader is asking, "How can Penn State be above Michigan who beat them twice?" The difference is that Penn State has better wins. Home against Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan State trumps Michigan's road win at East Lansing. Penn State hosts Ohio State Tuesday and travels to Minnesota Sunday. Penn State probably needs both to feel decent about their tournament hopes.
(7) Michigan (18-12, 8-9). Michigan is clawing and fighting to make themselves relevant in this year's tourney picture. Michigan picked up an enormous win at Minnesota Saturday that more or less put the final nail in Minnesota's tournament coffin. But the real story for Michigan was another missed opportunity. The Gasser three at the buzzer (banked in by the way) in Ann Arbor gave Michigan a 53-52 loss. Michigan is two plays away from being in great shape. The missed three at the buzzer at Illinois the week before and the aforementioned banked in three. Michigan has a tournament resume full of near misses. But their only wins against the teams above them in the standings are two over Penn State and a win at East Lansing. Michigan closes the Big 10 season with a home game against Michigan State. A game Michigan needs to have to keep their bubble hopes alive.
Need to win the Big 10 Tournament
(8) Minnesota (17-11, 6-10). Minnesota had a crucial week this week, with home games against the state of Michigan. A 53-48 loss to Michigan State and a 70-63 loss to Michigan later, the Gophers are pretty much off the bubble. Minnesota has now lost 7 of their last 8, 4 of them at home. We've said this here before, but Al Nolen's injury and Devoe Joseph's transfer killed the Gophers. Minnesota travels to Northwestern Wednesday and hosts Penn State Sunday. The Gophers need both those games and a decent showing in the Big 10 tournament to get back into the tournament discussion.
(9) Northwestern (16-12, 6-11). Northwestern suffered a home loss to Penn State (66-52) and a road loss at Wisconsin (78-63). This season started with such promise for the Wildcats. After Kevin Coble chose not to return for his final season, and John Shurna never appeared to be the same player after an early season injury, Northwestern's season faded into NIT obscurity. So the Wildcats need to win the Big 10 tournament to make their first ever NCAA tournament. Northwestern hosts Minnesota Wednesday to finish their season.
(10) Iowa (10-18, 3-13). Iowa lost their only game this week, falling 81-68 in Champaign. Melsahn Basabe had 17 points and 7 rebounds in the loss. He is going to be a tough player over the next three years. Iowa travels to Michigan State Tuesday and hosts Purdue Saturday. Iowa is still just playing for the future.
(11) Indiana (12-17, 3-13). Indiana suffered a home loss to Purdue and a road loss to Ohio State. Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls look like a good future core for the Hoosiers. Indiana closes by hosting Wisconsin and traveling to Illinois. Indiana has a chance to truly ruin Illinois' season by managing a season sweep of the Illini.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Making Sense of a Changing NBA
Before I delve into this, allow me to apologize to our loyal readers (do I flatter myself my pluralizing reader?) for the general lack of posting over the past couple weeks. Work has been very busy lately, so expect two weekend posts until work slows down.
With that being said, the NBA trade deadline has come and gone. Two blockbusters took place in which two of the 15 best players in the NBA were traded (Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams). Not because they were underachieving or not playing well, but rather because the writing was on the wall that they were fleeing their respective teams to play with other superstars in larger markets upon hitting free agency.
There has been much hand wringing in the media and in small market NBA cities about these deals. Neither Denver nor Utah had shown an unwillingness to spend. Denver traded for Allen Iverson (a move destined to fail because neither Melo or Iverson like to share) and then turned Iverson into Chauncey Billups. They surrounded those guys with good role players (JR Smith, the Birdman, Nene), ultimately losing in the '09 Conference Finals in 6 games. But 'Melo never really embraced Denver as a city (crazy that anyone would fail to embrace Denver) and he was going to move on. Denver waited too long to trade him, and Melo made clear that he was only re-signing with the Knicks, leading the Nuggets to get a package of decent NBA players and draft picks destined for the 20s (Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, a number 1 in 2014 and two second round picks).
Compare that to Deron Williams, traded with a year and a half left on his deal, and a mere week after the resignation of long time coach Jerry Sloan. Utah, again, is not a dysfunctional organization. They had a strong supporting cast built around Deron's strengths. After failing to re-sign Carlos Boozer, they managed a trade for Al Jefferson, a decent Boozer replacement. And again, Utah was a playoff staple. But Deron did not want to stay in Utah. Utah made a smart decision, taking a large offer from New Jersey, adding a promising young power forward in Derrick Favors, a decent point guard in Devin Harris, and draft picks (Nets in 2011 and Golden State in 2012 - both could be lottery picks). Utah can build off of that.
So what does all this mean for the NBA? In the NBA, you need a top 5 guy to win a title. With only five players on the floor, and only one basketball, the importance of a star takes on a whole new level of importance. But here's the thing, the contenders this year, from the East: Miami, Boston, Chicago and Orlando and from the West: San Antonio, Dallas, the Lakers and Oklahoma City all built their foundations through the draft. Miami drafted Wade. Without Wade in Miami, Lebron and Bosh go somewhere else. Boston drafted Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo (Rondo was the 21st pick) while trading for Garnett and Ray Allen. The Bulls drafted Rose and Noah. Orlando drafted Dwight Howard. San Antonio drafted Duncan, Parker and Ginobli. Dallas drafted Nowitzki. The Lakers drafted Kobe. Oklahoma City drafted Durant and Westbrook. The foundation for all those teams came through the draft. And that will not change in free agency. The Knicks are the only team in the league that is building exclusively through free agency. And anyone that thinks that the Knicks are a contender this year with Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony is kidding themselves. And eventually, the Knicks will run out of players they can add in free agency and free agency will regress to the mean.
Now compare all those contenders to a struggling small market team like the Pacers. Since the year 2000, the Pacers have not drafted higher than 10th and have not made the playoffs since 2006. They hit a homerun with Danny Granger at number 17. Granger is a lot of things, but at best he is a fringe All-Star. If he is your best player, you are trying to squeak into the playoffs every year. Small market teams need to pick up impact players through the draft. And you need to draft in the top 10 (probably top 5) to make that happen.
What's the point? The point is that the NBA isn't any different than Major League Baseball. Free agents want to play for winners in big markets (like the Yankees or the Heat). The formula for small markets is more difficult. Like Oklahoma City (or the Tampa Bay Rays), you need to hit a homerun in the draft (Durant at number 2 in 2007) and then surround the star with young talent (Westbrook at 4 in '08, Jeff Green at 5 in '07, James Harden at 3 in '09 and Serge Ibaka at 24 in '08).
And the call for greater parity in the NBA is absurd. Why would you want the quality of play to go down? Has any team in the NBA ever won a title without 2 top 15 players? In the last 20 years, the Bulls won 6 with Jordan and Pippen. The Rockets won 2 with Olajuwon and Drexler. The Spurs won 4 with Duncan and a supporting cast of David Robinson or Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli (depending on which Duncan team won). The Lakers won 5 with Kobe/Shaq or Kobe/Gasol/Odom. The Celtics won once with Pierce/Rondo/KG/Allen. The Heat won with Wade/Shaq. The only champ without a true star was the '04 Pistons (Billups, Hamilton, Prince and the Wallaces - 5 very above average players but no stars). 19 out of the past 20 champions had two stars.
The lack of parity means the playoffs in the East this year are going to be absurd. The Knicks will play one of the top 4 in the first round. In the second round, we are looking at some combination of Miami, Orlando, the Bulls and Boston. The playoffs are going to be amazing because there is not parity.
Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Lebron James and Chris Bosh have not changed the formula. The big market cities still have a decided advantage when it comes to luring free agents (as they always have) and the small markets still need to hit it big in the draft to win.
With that being said, the NBA trade deadline has come and gone. Two blockbusters took place in which two of the 15 best players in the NBA were traded (Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams). Not because they were underachieving or not playing well, but rather because the writing was on the wall that they were fleeing their respective teams to play with other superstars in larger markets upon hitting free agency.
There has been much hand wringing in the media and in small market NBA cities about these deals. Neither Denver nor Utah had shown an unwillingness to spend. Denver traded for Allen Iverson (a move destined to fail because neither Melo or Iverson like to share) and then turned Iverson into Chauncey Billups. They surrounded those guys with good role players (JR Smith, the Birdman, Nene), ultimately losing in the '09 Conference Finals in 6 games. But 'Melo never really embraced Denver as a city (crazy that anyone would fail to embrace Denver) and he was going to move on. Denver waited too long to trade him, and Melo made clear that he was only re-signing with the Knicks, leading the Nuggets to get a package of decent NBA players and draft picks destined for the 20s (Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, a number 1 in 2014 and two second round picks).
Compare that to Deron Williams, traded with a year and a half left on his deal, and a mere week after the resignation of long time coach Jerry Sloan. Utah, again, is not a dysfunctional organization. They had a strong supporting cast built around Deron's strengths. After failing to re-sign Carlos Boozer, they managed a trade for Al Jefferson, a decent Boozer replacement. And again, Utah was a playoff staple. But Deron did not want to stay in Utah. Utah made a smart decision, taking a large offer from New Jersey, adding a promising young power forward in Derrick Favors, a decent point guard in Devin Harris, and draft picks (Nets in 2011 and Golden State in 2012 - both could be lottery picks). Utah can build off of that.
So what does all this mean for the NBA? In the NBA, you need a top 5 guy to win a title. With only five players on the floor, and only one basketball, the importance of a star takes on a whole new level of importance. But here's the thing, the contenders this year, from the East: Miami, Boston, Chicago and Orlando and from the West: San Antonio, Dallas, the Lakers and Oklahoma City all built their foundations through the draft. Miami drafted Wade. Without Wade in Miami, Lebron and Bosh go somewhere else. Boston drafted Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo (Rondo was the 21st pick) while trading for Garnett and Ray Allen. The Bulls drafted Rose and Noah. Orlando drafted Dwight Howard. San Antonio drafted Duncan, Parker and Ginobli. Dallas drafted Nowitzki. The Lakers drafted Kobe. Oklahoma City drafted Durant and Westbrook. The foundation for all those teams came through the draft. And that will not change in free agency. The Knicks are the only team in the league that is building exclusively through free agency. And anyone that thinks that the Knicks are a contender this year with Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony is kidding themselves. And eventually, the Knicks will run out of players they can add in free agency and free agency will regress to the mean.
Now compare all those contenders to a struggling small market team like the Pacers. Since the year 2000, the Pacers have not drafted higher than 10th and have not made the playoffs since 2006. They hit a homerun with Danny Granger at number 17. Granger is a lot of things, but at best he is a fringe All-Star. If he is your best player, you are trying to squeak into the playoffs every year. Small market teams need to pick up impact players through the draft. And you need to draft in the top 10 (probably top 5) to make that happen.
What's the point? The point is that the NBA isn't any different than Major League Baseball. Free agents want to play for winners in big markets (like the Yankees or the Heat). The formula for small markets is more difficult. Like Oklahoma City (or the Tampa Bay Rays), you need to hit a homerun in the draft (Durant at number 2 in 2007) and then surround the star with young talent (Westbrook at 4 in '08, Jeff Green at 5 in '07, James Harden at 3 in '09 and Serge Ibaka at 24 in '08).
And the call for greater parity in the NBA is absurd. Why would you want the quality of play to go down? Has any team in the NBA ever won a title without 2 top 15 players? In the last 20 years, the Bulls won 6 with Jordan and Pippen. The Rockets won 2 with Olajuwon and Drexler. The Spurs won 4 with Duncan and a supporting cast of David Robinson or Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli (depending on which Duncan team won). The Lakers won 5 with Kobe/Shaq or Kobe/Gasol/Odom. The Celtics won once with Pierce/Rondo/KG/Allen. The Heat won with Wade/Shaq. The only champ without a true star was the '04 Pistons (Billups, Hamilton, Prince and the Wallaces - 5 very above average players but no stars). 19 out of the past 20 champions had two stars.
The lack of parity means the playoffs in the East this year are going to be absurd. The Knicks will play one of the top 4 in the first round. In the second round, we are looking at some combination of Miami, Orlando, the Bulls and Boston. The playoffs are going to be amazing because there is not parity.
Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Lebron James and Chris Bosh have not changed the formula. The big market cities still have a decided advantage when it comes to luring free agents (as they always have) and the small markets still need to hit it big in the draft to win.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Big 10 Review: Week 8
We have a Big 10 title race! Purdue keeps alive their title chances with a home win over Ohio State. Illinois loses to Michigan State. Minnesota loses to Penn State. While I cannot imagine the Big 10 putting fewer than 5 teams in the tournament, no one outside the top 3 seems to want one of those spots (Michigan State seems the most interested of the bubble teams right now). Where does the Big 10 stand?
The Favorite
(1) Ohio State (25-2, 12-2). The Buckeyes pulled away late for a 71-61 home win against Michigan State before losing 76-63 at Purdue. No shame in losing to Purdue when E'Twaun Moore shoots 13-18 and scores 38 points. Ohio State still has a game lead in the conference and has only one road game left (at Penn State) so Ohio State is still in the driver's seat. For Ohio State, the questions are (1) can they win out and win the Big 10 title and (2) can they hold on for a 1 seed in the tournament. In the coming week, the Buckeyes host Illinois Tuesday and host Indiana Sunday.
The Contender
(2) Purdue (22-5, 11-3). Great week for the Boilers with home wins over Wisconsin (70-62) and Ohio State (76-63). Purdue buried Wisconsin's Big 10 title hopes and kept their own alive with the win over Ohio State. Unlike Ohio State, Purdue closes with three road games (at Iowa, at Indiana and at Michigan State) in their last four. E'Twaun Moore went crazy against Ohio State, going 13-18 from the floor and 7-10 from the arc for 38 points. Big week ahead for Purdue, at Iowa and at Michigan State. They need both to keep their title hopes alive.
Safely in the Tournament
(3) Wisconsin (20-6, 10-4). Wisconsin said goodbye to their Big 10 hopes with a 70-62 loss at Purdue. But they rebounded well with a 76-66 win over Penn State. Wisconsin is a tournament lock. And, frankly, Wisconsin is boring. Boring to watch. Boring to discuss right now. But they have two of the top 5 players in the conference (Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer) and will be a tough out in the tournament. Wisconsin travels to Michigan Wednesday and hosts Northwestern Sunday.
On the Bubble
(4) Michigan State (15-11, 7-7). Michigan State battled in a road loss at Ohio State and then gutted out a home win over Illinois (61-57). Kalin Lucas has been playing as well as anyone over the past month, scoring at least 20 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Lucas willed Michigan State to the win over the Illini. And Kalin Lucas is the reason the Spartans are ahead of Illinois in the Power Rankings. A very, very crucial week ahead for the Spartans tournament hopes. They travel to Minnesota Tuesday and host Purdue Sunday. A two win week and the Spartans can pencil themselves into the tournament and Tom Izzo can breath a sigh of relief.
(5) Illinois (17-10, 7-7). What an ugly week for the Illini. They absolutely should have lost to Michigan in Champaign, hanging on for a 54-52 win and then lost at East Lansing. Ron Guenther, the Illinois AD, came out this week with a vote of confidence as to Bruce Weber. It seems that the blame for the Illini's failings has officially been laid at the feet of the Seniors. McCamey, Tisdale and Davis have four games left to change their legacy as Illini. With games at Ohio State and at Purdue still on the schedule, the Illini are staring 9-9 in the Big 10 in the face and need to hope that is sufficient to make the tournament. This week, a trip to Columbus Tuesday and then the Illini host Iowa Saturday.
(6) Minnesota (17-9, 6-8). The Gophers played once this week, losing at Penn State 66-63. Minnesota has now lost 5 of 6 (the only win at Iowa) and have just not been the same team since Al Nolen's injury. The Gophers tournament hopes are still on fairly solid ground. Their only bad losses, home to a poor Virginia team and at Indiana. They have solid wins over North Carolina, West Virginia and Purdue. And most importantly, they have three home games left (Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State) with a trip to Northwestern their only road game. This week, two big home games for Minnesota, hosting Michigan State Tuesday and hosting Michigan Saturday. Two home wins and Minnesota can feel much better about their tournament chances.
(7) Penn State (14-12, 7-8). Penn State is in a better spot than Michigan, in spite of two losses to Michigan, after yet another good Big 10 home win, knocking off Minnesota 66-63 before losing at Wisconsin. In the good column for Penn State, home wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota. In the bad, lost twice to Michigan, a variety of bad non-conference losses, and they are only two games over .500. Penn State plays just once this week, traveling to Northwestern Thursday.
(8) Michigan (17-11, 7-8). Michigan missed two threes at the buzzer in a loss at Illinois and then held on for an overtime win at Iowa (75-72). Michigan's tournament resume is weak. Their best overall win is either a win at Clemson or at Michigan State (both bubble teams in their own right). And they don't get credit for close losses (53-50 at Syracuse, 67-60 in overtime against Kansas, 68-64 against Ohio State and the aforementioned game against Illinois). Michigan probably needs at least two of their last three conference games to stay on the bubble. This week, the Wolverines host Wisconsin Wednesday (a game they probably must have) and travel to Minnesota Saturday.
Need to Win the Big 10 Tournament
(9) Northwestern (16-10, 6-9). The good news for Northwestern, a home win this week against Iowa and a road win at Indiana guaranteed an NIT berth at the least for the Wildcats. But Northwestern has an even worse resume than Michigan. Their only win of any relevance was a home win over Illinois. Northwestern hosts Penn State Wednesday and travels to Wisconsin Sunday. Northwestern needs to win the Big 10 tournament to make the NCAAs.
(10) Iowa (10-17, 3-12). Iowa took two close losses this week, 73-70 at Northwestern and an overtime home loss against Michigan. Iowa has proven themselves to be a very tough out at home. Hobbserver favorite Melsahn Basabe had another strong week with 13 points and 7 rebounds against Northwestern and 19 points and 8 rebounds against Michigan. Basabe would be Big 10 freshman of the year if not for a guy named Jared Sullinger. Iowa has just one game this week, at Illinois.
(11) Indiana (12-15, 3-11). The Hoosiers played once this week, losing to Northwestern 70-64. Not a lot to say about the Hoosiers. Indiana hosts Purdue and travels to Ohio State this week. Indiana and their fans would love nothing more than to end archrival Purdue's Big 10 title hopes.
Until next week.
The Favorite
(1) Ohio State (25-2, 12-2). The Buckeyes pulled away late for a 71-61 home win against Michigan State before losing 76-63 at Purdue. No shame in losing to Purdue when E'Twaun Moore shoots 13-18 and scores 38 points. Ohio State still has a game lead in the conference and has only one road game left (at Penn State) so Ohio State is still in the driver's seat. For Ohio State, the questions are (1) can they win out and win the Big 10 title and (2) can they hold on for a 1 seed in the tournament. In the coming week, the Buckeyes host Illinois Tuesday and host Indiana Sunday.
The Contender
(2) Purdue (22-5, 11-3). Great week for the Boilers with home wins over Wisconsin (70-62) and Ohio State (76-63). Purdue buried Wisconsin's Big 10 title hopes and kept their own alive with the win over Ohio State. Unlike Ohio State, Purdue closes with three road games (at Iowa, at Indiana and at Michigan State) in their last four. E'Twaun Moore went crazy against Ohio State, going 13-18 from the floor and 7-10 from the arc for 38 points. Big week ahead for Purdue, at Iowa and at Michigan State. They need both to keep their title hopes alive.
Safely in the Tournament
(3) Wisconsin (20-6, 10-4). Wisconsin said goodbye to their Big 10 hopes with a 70-62 loss at Purdue. But they rebounded well with a 76-66 win over Penn State. Wisconsin is a tournament lock. And, frankly, Wisconsin is boring. Boring to watch. Boring to discuss right now. But they have two of the top 5 players in the conference (Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer) and will be a tough out in the tournament. Wisconsin travels to Michigan Wednesday and hosts Northwestern Sunday.
On the Bubble
(4) Michigan State (15-11, 7-7). Michigan State battled in a road loss at Ohio State and then gutted out a home win over Illinois (61-57). Kalin Lucas has been playing as well as anyone over the past month, scoring at least 20 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Lucas willed Michigan State to the win over the Illini. And Kalin Lucas is the reason the Spartans are ahead of Illinois in the Power Rankings. A very, very crucial week ahead for the Spartans tournament hopes. They travel to Minnesota Tuesday and host Purdue Sunday. A two win week and the Spartans can pencil themselves into the tournament and Tom Izzo can breath a sigh of relief.
(5) Illinois (17-10, 7-7). What an ugly week for the Illini. They absolutely should have lost to Michigan in Champaign, hanging on for a 54-52 win and then lost at East Lansing. Ron Guenther, the Illinois AD, came out this week with a vote of confidence as to Bruce Weber. It seems that the blame for the Illini's failings has officially been laid at the feet of the Seniors. McCamey, Tisdale and Davis have four games left to change their legacy as Illini. With games at Ohio State and at Purdue still on the schedule, the Illini are staring 9-9 in the Big 10 in the face and need to hope that is sufficient to make the tournament. This week, a trip to Columbus Tuesday and then the Illini host Iowa Saturday.
(6) Minnesota (17-9, 6-8). The Gophers played once this week, losing at Penn State 66-63. Minnesota has now lost 5 of 6 (the only win at Iowa) and have just not been the same team since Al Nolen's injury. The Gophers tournament hopes are still on fairly solid ground. Their only bad losses, home to a poor Virginia team and at Indiana. They have solid wins over North Carolina, West Virginia and Purdue. And most importantly, they have three home games left (Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State) with a trip to Northwestern their only road game. This week, two big home games for Minnesota, hosting Michigan State Tuesday and hosting Michigan Saturday. Two home wins and Minnesota can feel much better about their tournament chances.
(7) Penn State (14-12, 7-8). Penn State is in a better spot than Michigan, in spite of two losses to Michigan, after yet another good Big 10 home win, knocking off Minnesota 66-63 before losing at Wisconsin. In the good column for Penn State, home wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota. In the bad, lost twice to Michigan, a variety of bad non-conference losses, and they are only two games over .500. Penn State plays just once this week, traveling to Northwestern Thursday.
(8) Michigan (17-11, 7-8). Michigan missed two threes at the buzzer in a loss at Illinois and then held on for an overtime win at Iowa (75-72). Michigan's tournament resume is weak. Their best overall win is either a win at Clemson or at Michigan State (both bubble teams in their own right). And they don't get credit for close losses (53-50 at Syracuse, 67-60 in overtime against Kansas, 68-64 against Ohio State and the aforementioned game against Illinois). Michigan probably needs at least two of their last three conference games to stay on the bubble. This week, the Wolverines host Wisconsin Wednesday (a game they probably must have) and travel to Minnesota Saturday.
Need to Win the Big 10 Tournament
(9) Northwestern (16-10, 6-9). The good news for Northwestern, a home win this week against Iowa and a road win at Indiana guaranteed an NIT berth at the least for the Wildcats. But Northwestern has an even worse resume than Michigan. Their only win of any relevance was a home win over Illinois. Northwestern hosts Penn State Wednesday and travels to Wisconsin Sunday. Northwestern needs to win the Big 10 tournament to make the NCAAs.
(10) Iowa (10-17, 3-12). Iowa took two close losses this week, 73-70 at Northwestern and an overtime home loss against Michigan. Iowa has proven themselves to be a very tough out at home. Hobbserver favorite Melsahn Basabe had another strong week with 13 points and 7 rebounds against Northwestern and 19 points and 8 rebounds against Michigan. Basabe would be Big 10 freshman of the year if not for a guy named Jared Sullinger. Iowa has just one game this week, at Illinois.
(11) Indiana (12-15, 3-11). The Hoosiers played once this week, losing to Northwestern 70-64. Not a lot to say about the Hoosiers. Indiana hosts Purdue and travels to Ohio State this week. Indiana and their fans would love nothing more than to end archrival Purdue's Big 10 title hopes.
Until next week.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
The Baseball Rule Applied to the NBA Draft
I was watching College Gameday this morning (at East Lansing ahead of the Illinois-Michigan State game tonight) and the discussion turned to the impact of "one and done" on the college game. The panel (Rece Davis, Hubert Davis, Jay Bilas and Digger Phelps) all agreed that the way to "fix" the college game is to implement the baseball rule for the NBA draft. For those unaware, the MLB draft allows players to go into the draft directly out of high school. If they go to a 4 year college, they cannot become draft eligible again until after their Junior year (the loophole is that by attending Junior College, you become draft eligible after one season). Applying that to the NBA is a great idea... in theory. And a terrible idea in practice.
Unfortunately, comparing the MLB draft to the NBA draft is comparing apples to oranges. Baseball is able to draft an 18 year old kid based on his potential and then stash him in the minors for a couple years to allow him to develop into a Major League player. The NBA has no such system (other than the college game and the D League which is widely considered to be a joke). As such, the Leon Smiths, the Gerald Greens and the Eddy Currys of the world are still going to head directly to the draft and are still going to waste their potential because, with a limited 12 man roster, NBA clubs cannot afford to wait for a high potential kid to develop and cannot give them meaningful game experience. Until the NBA has a legitimate minor league system (and nothing makes it appear as though this is forthcoming), applying the MLB rule to the NBA draft is a massive failure. Additionally, the MLB draft is approximately 300 rounds (actually 50), while the NBA draft is two rounds. Again, apples and oranges.
Second, there are a lot of college athletes (in all sports) who come from poor economic backgrounds. When faced with the choice of jumping at guaranteed NBA first round money, three years in college, or one year in Junior College (applying the MLB rule as it actually applies), what you will see is more kids throwing their name in the hat directly out of high school, and an increase in the talent at the Junior College level. Thus, the actual impact on the product in college basketball may end up nominal at best.
Third, the NBA has been down this road before. The NBA does not want 18 year olds in the league. For every Lebron, Kobe and Kevin Garnett, there are dozens of guys who failed. The NBA likes guaranteeing a year of college coaching somewhere and an extra year for scouts to evaluate players. Without the NBA being on board, the idea fails.
The only way the Baseball Rule works (and I have advocated this position before in this Blog and countless times in heated bar discussions) is if the NBA is willing to commit to a minor league. Now, for the College Gameday crew, that argument does not hold any weight because it will contribute to diluting the NCAA basketball product in the exact same way that the one and dones dilute the product. But if you are looking out for the best interests of the athlete, they are best served by either (1) maintaining the current system or (2) enacting a true NBA affiliated minor league mirroring the MLB. Sloppy analysis ESPN Gameday crew.
Unfortunately, comparing the MLB draft to the NBA draft is comparing apples to oranges. Baseball is able to draft an 18 year old kid based on his potential and then stash him in the minors for a couple years to allow him to develop into a Major League player. The NBA has no such system (other than the college game and the D League which is widely considered to be a joke). As such, the Leon Smiths, the Gerald Greens and the Eddy Currys of the world are still going to head directly to the draft and are still going to waste their potential because, with a limited 12 man roster, NBA clubs cannot afford to wait for a high potential kid to develop and cannot give them meaningful game experience. Until the NBA has a legitimate minor league system (and nothing makes it appear as though this is forthcoming), applying the MLB rule to the NBA draft is a massive failure. Additionally, the MLB draft is approximately 300 rounds (actually 50), while the NBA draft is two rounds. Again, apples and oranges.
Second, there are a lot of college athletes (in all sports) who come from poor economic backgrounds. When faced with the choice of jumping at guaranteed NBA first round money, three years in college, or one year in Junior College (applying the MLB rule as it actually applies), what you will see is more kids throwing their name in the hat directly out of high school, and an increase in the talent at the Junior College level. Thus, the actual impact on the product in college basketball may end up nominal at best.
Third, the NBA has been down this road before. The NBA does not want 18 year olds in the league. For every Lebron, Kobe and Kevin Garnett, there are dozens of guys who failed. The NBA likes guaranteeing a year of college coaching somewhere and an extra year for scouts to evaluate players. Without the NBA being on board, the idea fails.
The only way the Baseball Rule works (and I have advocated this position before in this Blog and countless times in heated bar discussions) is if the NBA is willing to commit to a minor league. Now, for the College Gameday crew, that argument does not hold any weight because it will contribute to diluting the NCAA basketball product in the exact same way that the one and dones dilute the product. But if you are looking out for the best interests of the athlete, they are best served by either (1) maintaining the current system or (2) enacting a true NBA affiliated minor league mirroring the MLB. Sloppy analysis ESPN Gameday crew.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Big 10 Review: Week 7
It's a three team race in the Big 10 after Wisconsin knocked off Ohio State at Kohl. Purdue picks up a huge road win in Champaign. The Illini pick up a huge road win at the Barn. And Michigan officially enters the bubble picture. The Big 10 race is shaping up.
The Favorite
1) Ohio State (24-1, 11-1). Ohio State's unbeaten season is over. They had a 15 point lead with 13 minutes left until fire balls literally began to come out of Jordan Taylor and the Buckeyes let the game get away, losing 71-67. So what does this mean? Not a whole damn lot. There is no shame in losing at Kohl. And barring a disaster, Ohio State will still get a number 1 seed in the tournament. Ohio State hosts Michigan State on Tuesday and then travels to West Lafayette and Purdue Sunday. The game at Purdue is absolutely huge. If the Buckeyes win at Purdue, the Big 10 race is over.
The Contenders
2) Purdue (20-5, 9-3). The Boilers outplayed Indiana at home 67-53 and then picked up a huge win in Champaign, winning 81-70. JaJuan Johnson had 24 points, E'Twaun Moore had 20. But the real hero for Purdue was Lewis Jackson. Illinois could not stop his dribble penetration and his 10 points and 5 assists do not actually quantify his contribution in the win. Purdue has a huge week this week. They host Wisconsin Wednesday and Ohio State Sunday. If Purdue goes 2-0 this week, they have a chance at winning the Big 10 yet.
3) Wisconsin (19-5, 9-3). Wisconsin escaped Iowa City with a 62-59 win in overtime at midweek. Jordan Taylor then caught fire at home against Ohio State, scoring 18 points over an 8 minute stretch in the second half. Yes, Hobbserver readers, Jordan Taylor is the best guard in the league. Wisconsin travels to Purdue Wednesday and then hosts Penn State Sunday. A win at Purdue keeps Wisconsin alive in the Big 10 race. Now, I allow myself a short digression on Wisconsin. Wisconsin almost never, ever loses at Kohl. If they pick up a couple road wins every year, they are a 4 seed in the tournament.
On the Bubble
4) Illinois (16-9, 6-6). Illinois picked up a huge win at Minnesota at midweek and then squandered a huge opportunity to solidify their tournament chances with a home loss to Purdue. Demitri McCamey acted like he cared at Minnesota, attacking the basket and scoring 17 points. He was awful against Purdue. Just awful. Also, a note to Bruce Weber and the Illini. Lewis Jackson has no jump shot, none. But he is as fast a player as there is in the Big 10. So why guard him 20+ feet from the basket when, obviously, no one on the team could guard him out there? Make the adjustment that had to be made! Jackson's penetration was a huge reason the Boilers scored an insane 54 points in the second half. Along the same vein, McCamey has 6 inches on Jackson. But Illinois did not once try to isolate him in the post. Frustrating. Illinois has a very important week ahead. They host Michigan Wednesday and travel to Michigan State Saturday. If Illinois picks up two wins this week, they can play themselves off the bubble.
5) Minnesota (17-8, 6-7). Minnesota suffered their second home loss of the Big 10 campaign, dropping a tough game to Illinois. Turnabout from last year perhaps. If the Selection Committee is choosing between Illinois and Minnesota, that loss will send the Gophers to the NIT. Minnesota ended their 4 game losing streak in conference Sunday when they won at Iowa 62-45. Big week ahead for the Gophers. Just one game, but it is their last tough road test, at Penn State Thursday. Minnesota has a soft remaining schedule (no games against anyone ahead of them in this power ranking), so barring some upsets, the Gophers are probably heading to the NCAAs for the second straight year. But they have plenty of work to do yet.
6) Michigan State (14-10, 6-6). Michigan State picked up a huge win at home against Penn State, 75-57. Pretty much every game from here on out is a desperate situation for the Spartans. In the week ahead, they travel to Ohio State Tuesday and then host Illinois Saturday. The week after that, the Spartans travel to Minnesota and host Purdue. Michigan State needs to go 2-2 or better over those 4 games to feel good about their tournament chances.
7) Michigan (16-10, 6-7). Michigan, welcome to the bubble. The Wolverines took care of business this week with home wins over Northwestern (75-66) and Indiana (73-69). Darius Morris is a pretty good player and just fills up the stat sheet week after week. Still for Michigan, they lack a statement win to hang their hat on. They have one win over a team above them in the Big 10 standings (at Michigan State), and one decent win in the non-conference schedule (at a Clemson team that is on the bubble themselves). But Michigan closes with plenty of chances to get a decent win. In the coming week, they travel to Illinois Wednesday and to Iowa City Saturday. Then, they play Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State to finish the season. If Michigan is going to make the tournament, they need at least 3 wins over their last 5.
8) Penn State (13-11, 6-7). This could be Penn State's last week on the bubble. After a disheartening early week loss to Michigan State, Penn State kept their fading hopes alive with a 65-41 win over a broken Northwestern team. Penn State has been a great story this year, but with the bad out of conference losses, they face an uphill battle to get into the tournament. Penn State hosts Minnesota Thursday and travels to Wisconsin Sunday. Penn State probably needs both those games to keep their fading hopes alive.
Need to Win the Big 10 Tourney
9) Northwestern (14-10, 4-9). We said last week this was a huge week for the Wildcats. Riding high after their upset win over Illinois, the Wildcats bubble officially burst with losses at Michigan and at Penn State. Northwestern can clinch an NIT berth with 2 wins this week (home Iowa, at Indiana), but any other postseason will require winning the Big 10 Tournament, or waiting at least another year.
10) Iowa (10-15, 3-10). Iowa came very close to playing spoiler at home early in the week, letting their game against Wisconsin slip away (Melsahn Basabe had another double-double - 13 points, 11 rebounds) and then lost handily at home to Minnesota. For as little talent and experience as Iowa has, the first year under Fran McCaffery has been much better than expected. The Hawkeyes travel to Evanston Thursday and host Michigan Saturday, trying to play spoiler the rest of the way.
11) Indiana (12-14, 3-10). Indiana lost to archrival Purdue and then came back from down 22 to ultimately lose by 4 at Michigan. Indiana, much like Iowa, is playing hard every night. Christian Watford looks like a future first team all Big 10 player. But the Hoosiers will take their lumps for another 5 games. After hosting Northwestern in their lone game this week, they close with Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois.
Until next week.
The Favorite
1) Ohio State (24-1, 11-1). Ohio State's unbeaten season is over. They had a 15 point lead with 13 minutes left until fire balls literally began to come out of Jordan Taylor and the Buckeyes let the game get away, losing 71-67. So what does this mean? Not a whole damn lot. There is no shame in losing at Kohl. And barring a disaster, Ohio State will still get a number 1 seed in the tournament. Ohio State hosts Michigan State on Tuesday and then travels to West Lafayette and Purdue Sunday. The game at Purdue is absolutely huge. If the Buckeyes win at Purdue, the Big 10 race is over.
The Contenders
2) Purdue (20-5, 9-3). The Boilers outplayed Indiana at home 67-53 and then picked up a huge win in Champaign, winning 81-70. JaJuan Johnson had 24 points, E'Twaun Moore had 20. But the real hero for Purdue was Lewis Jackson. Illinois could not stop his dribble penetration and his 10 points and 5 assists do not actually quantify his contribution in the win. Purdue has a huge week this week. They host Wisconsin Wednesday and Ohio State Sunday. If Purdue goes 2-0 this week, they have a chance at winning the Big 10 yet.
3) Wisconsin (19-5, 9-3). Wisconsin escaped Iowa City with a 62-59 win in overtime at midweek. Jordan Taylor then caught fire at home against Ohio State, scoring 18 points over an 8 minute stretch in the second half. Yes, Hobbserver readers, Jordan Taylor is the best guard in the league. Wisconsin travels to Purdue Wednesday and then hosts Penn State Sunday. A win at Purdue keeps Wisconsin alive in the Big 10 race. Now, I allow myself a short digression on Wisconsin. Wisconsin almost never, ever loses at Kohl. If they pick up a couple road wins every year, they are a 4 seed in the tournament.
On the Bubble
4) Illinois (16-9, 6-6). Illinois picked up a huge win at Minnesota at midweek and then squandered a huge opportunity to solidify their tournament chances with a home loss to Purdue. Demitri McCamey acted like he cared at Minnesota, attacking the basket and scoring 17 points. He was awful against Purdue. Just awful. Also, a note to Bruce Weber and the Illini. Lewis Jackson has no jump shot, none. But he is as fast a player as there is in the Big 10. So why guard him 20+ feet from the basket when, obviously, no one on the team could guard him out there? Make the adjustment that had to be made! Jackson's penetration was a huge reason the Boilers scored an insane 54 points in the second half. Along the same vein, McCamey has 6 inches on Jackson. But Illinois did not once try to isolate him in the post. Frustrating. Illinois has a very important week ahead. They host Michigan Wednesday and travel to Michigan State Saturday. If Illinois picks up two wins this week, they can play themselves off the bubble.
5) Minnesota (17-8, 6-7). Minnesota suffered their second home loss of the Big 10 campaign, dropping a tough game to Illinois. Turnabout from last year perhaps. If the Selection Committee is choosing between Illinois and Minnesota, that loss will send the Gophers to the NIT. Minnesota ended their 4 game losing streak in conference Sunday when they won at Iowa 62-45. Big week ahead for the Gophers. Just one game, but it is their last tough road test, at Penn State Thursday. Minnesota has a soft remaining schedule (no games against anyone ahead of them in this power ranking), so barring some upsets, the Gophers are probably heading to the NCAAs for the second straight year. But they have plenty of work to do yet.
6) Michigan State (14-10, 6-6). Michigan State picked up a huge win at home against Penn State, 75-57. Pretty much every game from here on out is a desperate situation for the Spartans. In the week ahead, they travel to Ohio State Tuesday and then host Illinois Saturday. The week after that, the Spartans travel to Minnesota and host Purdue. Michigan State needs to go 2-2 or better over those 4 games to feel good about their tournament chances.
7) Michigan (16-10, 6-7). Michigan, welcome to the bubble. The Wolverines took care of business this week with home wins over Northwestern (75-66) and Indiana (73-69). Darius Morris is a pretty good player and just fills up the stat sheet week after week. Still for Michigan, they lack a statement win to hang their hat on. They have one win over a team above them in the Big 10 standings (at Michigan State), and one decent win in the non-conference schedule (at a Clemson team that is on the bubble themselves). But Michigan closes with plenty of chances to get a decent win. In the coming week, they travel to Illinois Wednesday and to Iowa City Saturday. Then, they play Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State to finish the season. If Michigan is going to make the tournament, they need at least 3 wins over their last 5.
8) Penn State (13-11, 6-7). This could be Penn State's last week on the bubble. After a disheartening early week loss to Michigan State, Penn State kept their fading hopes alive with a 65-41 win over a broken Northwestern team. Penn State has been a great story this year, but with the bad out of conference losses, they face an uphill battle to get into the tournament. Penn State hosts Minnesota Thursday and travels to Wisconsin Sunday. Penn State probably needs both those games to keep their fading hopes alive.
Need to Win the Big 10 Tourney
9) Northwestern (14-10, 4-9). We said last week this was a huge week for the Wildcats. Riding high after their upset win over Illinois, the Wildcats bubble officially burst with losses at Michigan and at Penn State. Northwestern can clinch an NIT berth with 2 wins this week (home Iowa, at Indiana), but any other postseason will require winning the Big 10 Tournament, or waiting at least another year.
10) Iowa (10-15, 3-10). Iowa came very close to playing spoiler at home early in the week, letting their game against Wisconsin slip away (Melsahn Basabe had another double-double - 13 points, 11 rebounds) and then lost handily at home to Minnesota. For as little talent and experience as Iowa has, the first year under Fran McCaffery has been much better than expected. The Hawkeyes travel to Evanston Thursday and host Michigan Saturday, trying to play spoiler the rest of the way.
11) Indiana (12-14, 3-10). Indiana lost to archrival Purdue and then came back from down 22 to ultimately lose by 4 at Michigan. Indiana, much like Iowa, is playing hard every night. Christian Watford looks like a future first team all Big 10 player. But the Hoosiers will take their lumps for another 5 games. After hosting Northwestern in their lone game this week, they close with Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois.
Until next week.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Why the NHL Standings Are Stupid
No, this post is not about the fact that the Blackhawks sit 3 points out of the last playoff spot (and given the fact that the Hawks won the Stanley Cup last year, it does not even feel right to complain about their struggles this year, but I digress).
The NHL standings suffer from a fundamental flaw. Games that go into overtime, or are settled in a shootout, carry greater weight in the standings than a game that ends in regulation. Now, what I am saying is not news. Plenty of people smarter than myself have written about this, but it needs to be repeated continuously until addressed: the NHL needs to fix the way they value wins and losses.
For those of you who do not follow hockey (and are still reading this), a win in the NHL is worth 2 points, regardless of how it happens, whether that be in a shootout, in overtime, or in regulation. A team that loses in overtime or in a shootout picks up 1 point in the standings. Thus, a game settled in overtime is worth 3 points. A game settled in regulation is only worth 2 points.
I get that the NHL needs to figure out how to handle ties. Everyone likes shootouts (players and fans both) so I would never champion the NHL taking on a system like soccer (3 points for a win, 1 for a tie, no shootouts). But soccer has a better system for allocating points. A win is worth more than a draw. The NHL standings look ridiculous because of this problem. Currently, in the West, Dallas sits in 3rd with 68 points and the Hawks are in 11th with 61 points. 7 points distinguish 3rd from 11th. The Blackhawks have 28 wins and 27 losses, but they actually sit 4 points behind the Phoenix Coyotes with 28 wins and 28 losses and 3 points behind the Calgary Flames who have 28 wins and 29 losses. In the East, it is even worse. The Atlanta Thrashers are in the final playoff spot right now, even though they have 25 wins and 32 losses, because they have 10 overtime losses. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres have 26 wins and 27 losses and sit 3 points back. Madness.
The fix is easy. The NHL needs to adopt a system wherein each game is worth 3 points total. If you win in regulation, you get the full three points. If you are tied after three periods, you each get one point and battle for the third. Yes, a new column would need to be added to the standings, signifying overtime wins. But you reward teams for winning in regulation, which is the ultimate goal! In a tie game late, what is the reward in pushing everything forward to get that winning goal? The risk in losing the game and ending up with 0 points outweighs the risk in playing for the win (same 2 points you get if you bunker and win in overtime).
The NHL has made many, many positive improvements since the season was canceled in 04-05. It is time for the NHL to do the right thing and fix the standings.
The NHL standings suffer from a fundamental flaw. Games that go into overtime, or are settled in a shootout, carry greater weight in the standings than a game that ends in regulation. Now, what I am saying is not news. Plenty of people smarter than myself have written about this, but it needs to be repeated continuously until addressed: the NHL needs to fix the way they value wins and losses.
For those of you who do not follow hockey (and are still reading this), a win in the NHL is worth 2 points, regardless of how it happens, whether that be in a shootout, in overtime, or in regulation. A team that loses in overtime or in a shootout picks up 1 point in the standings. Thus, a game settled in overtime is worth 3 points. A game settled in regulation is only worth 2 points.
I get that the NHL needs to figure out how to handle ties. Everyone likes shootouts (players and fans both) so I would never champion the NHL taking on a system like soccer (3 points for a win, 1 for a tie, no shootouts). But soccer has a better system for allocating points. A win is worth more than a draw. The NHL standings look ridiculous because of this problem. Currently, in the West, Dallas sits in 3rd with 68 points and the Hawks are in 11th with 61 points. 7 points distinguish 3rd from 11th. The Blackhawks have 28 wins and 27 losses, but they actually sit 4 points behind the Phoenix Coyotes with 28 wins and 28 losses and 3 points behind the Calgary Flames who have 28 wins and 29 losses. In the East, it is even worse. The Atlanta Thrashers are in the final playoff spot right now, even though they have 25 wins and 32 losses, because they have 10 overtime losses. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres have 26 wins and 27 losses and sit 3 points back. Madness.
The fix is easy. The NHL needs to adopt a system wherein each game is worth 3 points total. If you win in regulation, you get the full three points. If you are tied after three periods, you each get one point and battle for the third. Yes, a new column would need to be added to the standings, signifying overtime wins. But you reward teams for winning in regulation, which is the ultimate goal! In a tie game late, what is the reward in pushing everything forward to get that winning goal? The risk in losing the game and ending up with 0 points outweighs the risk in playing for the win (same 2 points you get if you bunker and win in overtime).
The NHL has made many, many positive improvements since the season was canceled in 04-05. It is time for the NHL to do the right thing and fix the standings.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Big 10 Review: Week 6
Another crazy week in the Big 10. Indiana beats Minnesota, Iowa beats Michigan State by 20 (and wins at Indiana), Illinois loses at Northwestern, and Penn State suffers a home loss to Michigan. Now, the bubble is weak this year, extremely so. And every conference but the Big East appears to be somewhat down (and, as a short digression, I'm over the Big East - when you have 16 teams in your conference you are, by the law of averages, going to have more good teams than a 12 team conference). Thus, no matter how mediocre the middle of the Big 10 is (or maybe how not terrible the bottom of the Big 10 is), they will still get a minimum of 5 teams into the tournament, maybe even 6 (Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com had 7 Big 10 teams in during his midweek bracketology). Now with that being said, same format as last week, sorting out the hierarchy of the Big 10.
The Favorite
(1) Ohio State (24-0, 11-0). Ohio State is really, really good. They beat Michigan at home (62-53) and then passed their second Big 10 road test, winning handily at the Barn in Minneapolis. Here is the thing about Ohio State. They have the best player in the Big 10 and a go to scorer (Sullinger) but they have three other players that can carry them on a given night (Diebler, Buford and Lighty). That's something that no else in the Big 10, and maybe 3 or 4 other schools in the entire country can boast. The plethora of scorers is why Ohio State closes out close games better than anyone in the Big 10. But they are not just scorers. Buford, Lighty and Aaron Craft are all extremely talented perimeter defenders. The Buckeyes are tough to score on and they can beat you a lot of ways offensively. The glimmer of hope for Purdue and Wisconsin to get back into the Big 10 race is fading. Ohio State plays once in the coming week, at Kohl on Saturday. A win at Kohl would pretty much shut the door on the Big 10 race.
Still in the Hunt
(2) Purdue (18-5, 7-3). Purdue's title hopes took another hit this week, suffering a close loss at the Kohl Center to Wisconsin, 66-59. Purdue was right there late, up 59-58 with 1:10 left before Wisconsin pulled away. JaJuan Johnson scored 23 points and E'Twaun Moore had 15 in the loss. The Boilers have a key week coming up, home against Indiana (rivalry games have a tendency to play close) and at Illinois. A 2-0 week for Purdue could get them back into the hunt.
(3) Wisconsin (17-5, 7-3). Big week for the Badgers. They held on for the aforementioned home win over Purdue and then absolutely crushed Michigan State 82-56. What new, Wisconsin holds serve at the Kohl Center. We say this every week, but Jordan Taylor, Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankovil make a pretty solid core of scorers. The Badgers look to get back into the Big 10 race next week. At Iowa and home against Ohio State. A 2-0 week and the Badgers' slim title hopes get a bit of a boost.
On the Bubble
(4) Illinois (15-8, 5-5). The Illini had a big win over Penn State early in the week and then let a game slip away at Northwestern, losing 71-70 (Brandon Paul scored 21 points in the loss - note to Bruce Weber, time for Brandon Paul to get 30 minutes a game). But here is the thing for Illinois. This was actually a decent week for their tournament hopes. Michigan State lost by 20 at Iowa and was destroyed by Wisconsin. Penn State, in addition to the Illinois loss, lost at home to Michigan. Minnesota lost at Indiana. The Illini actually improved their tournament position entering a critical week. The Illini play at Minnesota Thursday and host Purdue Sunday. Last year, Illinois' home loss to Minnesota probably cost them a tournament berth; returning the favor at the Barn would do wonders for the Illini. Add to that a home game against Purdue. If the Illini go 2-0 this week, their tournament hopes will be in a very good place. An 0-2 week would be a disaster. Needless to say, this is a huge week for the Illini.
(5) Minnesota (16-7, 5-6). The Gophers had an awful week. They joined Illinois in the ranks of schools that lost at Indiana (60-57). And they also joined Illinois in the ranks of schools that suffered home losses to Ohio State (82-69). Minnesota has now lost three straight and the adversity they suffered this season (Mbakwe's legal issues, Devoe Joseph transferring, Al Nolen's injury) may be catching up to them. So that's the bad news. The good news for Minnesota, they have only one game remaining against a Big 10 opponent above them (home against Illinois). In the coming week, Minnesota hosts Illinois Thursday and travel to Iowa Sunday. Given the relatively weak remaining schedule, Minnesota's tournament hopes seem to be on fairly stable footing, but they still need to right the ship quickly.
(6) Penn State (12-10, 5-6). Here is where things begin to get dicey in the Big 10. Penn State has been a nice story this year. They have huge Big 10 home wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin, but this week they took a huge step back, losing at home to the Illini 68-50 and losing at home to Michigan 65-62 (in spite of 31 points from Taylor Battle). Michigan swept Penn State this year. Like Illinois, Penn State has a critical week ahead, at East Lansing Thursday and home against Penn State Sunday. If Penn State manages a split or better, they are still ok. An 0-2 week and Penn State's tournament hopes will fade into the great beyond.
(7) Michigan State (13-10, 5-6). The Spartans have lost 5 of their last 6, and the only win was a fluke, winning 84-83 in overtime against Indiana. But this week for the Spartans was a disaster, not because they lost, but because of the way they lost. If you are a decent team, you do not lose to Wisconsin 82-56. And you especially do not lose at Iowa by 20 (a loss Tom Izzo called the worst in his tenure at Michigan State). Izzo may have lost this team and is running out of time to pull his annual rabbit out of his hat. Michigan State plays just once this week, home against Penn State Thursday. Another must win for the Spartans as they teeter toward the NIT.
Back in the Hunt
(8) Northwestern (14-8, 4-7). Northwestern and Michigan could really be 8a and 8b here, and, going under the above rationale that the Big 10 will put a minimum of 5 teams into the tournament, both Michigan and Northwestern are the beneficiaries of awful weeks from teams 4 through 7 above them. We have written here for 6 weeks that Northwestern needed a statement win, and this week they finally got one against the upper echelon of the Big 10, beating Illinois 71-70. Juice Thompson put the Wildcats on his back, 5-8 from three and 22 points later, Northwestern had put the Illini away. Northwestern now enters a stretch of 5 extremely winnable games (at Michigan, at Penn State, home against Iowa, at Indiana, home against Penn State). This week they travel to Ann Arbor Wednesday, and then to Penn State Sunday. These are the games Northwestern must win in order to get back into the tournament picture. Northwestern took a big step forward this week toward getting back on the bubble, but there is lots of work to do still.
(9) Michigan (14-10, 4-7). The Wolverines took a hard fought loss at Ohio State this week (62-53) before escaping Penn State with a 65-62 win. Darius Morris had 23 points in the win over Penn State. Like Northwestern, Michigan has an important week ahead as they look to keep their slim tournament hopes alive, hosting Northwestern Wednesday and hosting Indiana Saturday. Michigan and Northwestern both have opportunities to take advantage of the slips from the schools above them in the coming week.
Silver Linings
(10) Iowa (10-13, 3-8). This is the week Iowa will remember all year. They absolutely dominated Michigan State, winning 72-52, and then completed a season sweep of Indiana with a 64-63 win at Indiana. The Hobbserver's favorite Big 10 freshman, Melsahn Basabe, had his fourth 20-10 in Big 10 play against the Hoosiers, with 20 points and 13 rebounds. Iowa is not making any postseason tournament this year. No NCAA, no NIT, but Fran McCaffery will build on this past week. Iowa hosts Wisconsin Wednesday and hosts Minnesota Sunday.
(11) Indiana (12-12, 3-8). Indiana is coming into their own. In spite of losing Christian Watford (their leading scorer and rebounder) indefinitely to a hand injury, the Hoosiers stole a home win against Minnesota. But the Hoosiers still move back into the Big 10 cellar by virtue of a season sweep at the hands of the Hawkeyes. Jordan Hulls had 24 in the loss to Iowa. Indiana had a balanced attack against Minnesota (five players scored between 8 and 12 points in the win). Tom Crean is building a solid foundation for the future. But Indiana will have to live with moral victories for the time being. The Hoosiers have two road games this week: at Purdue Tuesday and at Michigan Saturday.
Until next week.
The Favorite
(1) Ohio State (24-0, 11-0). Ohio State is really, really good. They beat Michigan at home (62-53) and then passed their second Big 10 road test, winning handily at the Barn in Minneapolis. Here is the thing about Ohio State. They have the best player in the Big 10 and a go to scorer (Sullinger) but they have three other players that can carry them on a given night (Diebler, Buford and Lighty). That's something that no else in the Big 10, and maybe 3 or 4 other schools in the entire country can boast. The plethora of scorers is why Ohio State closes out close games better than anyone in the Big 10. But they are not just scorers. Buford, Lighty and Aaron Craft are all extremely talented perimeter defenders. The Buckeyes are tough to score on and they can beat you a lot of ways offensively. The glimmer of hope for Purdue and Wisconsin to get back into the Big 10 race is fading. Ohio State plays once in the coming week, at Kohl on Saturday. A win at Kohl would pretty much shut the door on the Big 10 race.
Still in the Hunt
(2) Purdue (18-5, 7-3). Purdue's title hopes took another hit this week, suffering a close loss at the Kohl Center to Wisconsin, 66-59. Purdue was right there late, up 59-58 with 1:10 left before Wisconsin pulled away. JaJuan Johnson scored 23 points and E'Twaun Moore had 15 in the loss. The Boilers have a key week coming up, home against Indiana (rivalry games have a tendency to play close) and at Illinois. A 2-0 week for Purdue could get them back into the hunt.
(3) Wisconsin (17-5, 7-3). Big week for the Badgers. They held on for the aforementioned home win over Purdue and then absolutely crushed Michigan State 82-56. What new, Wisconsin holds serve at the Kohl Center. We say this every week, but Jordan Taylor, Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankovil make a pretty solid core of scorers. The Badgers look to get back into the Big 10 race next week. At Iowa and home against Ohio State. A 2-0 week and the Badgers' slim title hopes get a bit of a boost.
On the Bubble
(4) Illinois (15-8, 5-5). The Illini had a big win over Penn State early in the week and then let a game slip away at Northwestern, losing 71-70 (Brandon Paul scored 21 points in the loss - note to Bruce Weber, time for Brandon Paul to get 30 minutes a game). But here is the thing for Illinois. This was actually a decent week for their tournament hopes. Michigan State lost by 20 at Iowa and was destroyed by Wisconsin. Penn State, in addition to the Illinois loss, lost at home to Michigan. Minnesota lost at Indiana. The Illini actually improved their tournament position entering a critical week. The Illini play at Minnesota Thursday and host Purdue Sunday. Last year, Illinois' home loss to Minnesota probably cost them a tournament berth; returning the favor at the Barn would do wonders for the Illini. Add to that a home game against Purdue. If the Illini go 2-0 this week, their tournament hopes will be in a very good place. An 0-2 week would be a disaster. Needless to say, this is a huge week for the Illini.
(5) Minnesota (16-7, 5-6). The Gophers had an awful week. They joined Illinois in the ranks of schools that lost at Indiana (60-57). And they also joined Illinois in the ranks of schools that suffered home losses to Ohio State (82-69). Minnesota has now lost three straight and the adversity they suffered this season (Mbakwe's legal issues, Devoe Joseph transferring, Al Nolen's injury) may be catching up to them. So that's the bad news. The good news for Minnesota, they have only one game remaining against a Big 10 opponent above them (home against Illinois). In the coming week, Minnesota hosts Illinois Thursday and travel to Iowa Sunday. Given the relatively weak remaining schedule, Minnesota's tournament hopes seem to be on fairly stable footing, but they still need to right the ship quickly.
(6) Penn State (12-10, 5-6). Here is where things begin to get dicey in the Big 10. Penn State has been a nice story this year. They have huge Big 10 home wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin, but this week they took a huge step back, losing at home to the Illini 68-50 and losing at home to Michigan 65-62 (in spite of 31 points from Taylor Battle). Michigan swept Penn State this year. Like Illinois, Penn State has a critical week ahead, at East Lansing Thursday and home against Penn State Sunday. If Penn State manages a split or better, they are still ok. An 0-2 week and Penn State's tournament hopes will fade into the great beyond.
(7) Michigan State (13-10, 5-6). The Spartans have lost 5 of their last 6, and the only win was a fluke, winning 84-83 in overtime against Indiana. But this week for the Spartans was a disaster, not because they lost, but because of the way they lost. If you are a decent team, you do not lose to Wisconsin 82-56. And you especially do not lose at Iowa by 20 (a loss Tom Izzo called the worst in his tenure at Michigan State). Izzo may have lost this team and is running out of time to pull his annual rabbit out of his hat. Michigan State plays just once this week, home against Penn State Thursday. Another must win for the Spartans as they teeter toward the NIT.
Back in the Hunt
(8) Northwestern (14-8, 4-7). Northwestern and Michigan could really be 8a and 8b here, and, going under the above rationale that the Big 10 will put a minimum of 5 teams into the tournament, both Michigan and Northwestern are the beneficiaries of awful weeks from teams 4 through 7 above them. We have written here for 6 weeks that Northwestern needed a statement win, and this week they finally got one against the upper echelon of the Big 10, beating Illinois 71-70. Juice Thompson put the Wildcats on his back, 5-8 from three and 22 points later, Northwestern had put the Illini away. Northwestern now enters a stretch of 5 extremely winnable games (at Michigan, at Penn State, home against Iowa, at Indiana, home against Penn State). This week they travel to Ann Arbor Wednesday, and then to Penn State Sunday. These are the games Northwestern must win in order to get back into the tournament picture. Northwestern took a big step forward this week toward getting back on the bubble, but there is lots of work to do still.
(9) Michigan (14-10, 4-7). The Wolverines took a hard fought loss at Ohio State this week (62-53) before escaping Penn State with a 65-62 win. Darius Morris had 23 points in the win over Penn State. Like Northwestern, Michigan has an important week ahead as they look to keep their slim tournament hopes alive, hosting Northwestern Wednesday and hosting Indiana Saturday. Michigan and Northwestern both have opportunities to take advantage of the slips from the schools above them in the coming week.
Silver Linings
(10) Iowa (10-13, 3-8). This is the week Iowa will remember all year. They absolutely dominated Michigan State, winning 72-52, and then completed a season sweep of Indiana with a 64-63 win at Indiana. The Hobbserver's favorite Big 10 freshman, Melsahn Basabe, had his fourth 20-10 in Big 10 play against the Hoosiers, with 20 points and 13 rebounds. Iowa is not making any postseason tournament this year. No NCAA, no NIT, but Fran McCaffery will build on this past week. Iowa hosts Wisconsin Wednesday and hosts Minnesota Sunday.
(11) Indiana (12-12, 3-8). Indiana is coming into their own. In spite of losing Christian Watford (their leading scorer and rebounder) indefinitely to a hand injury, the Hoosiers stole a home win against Minnesota. But the Hoosiers still move back into the Big 10 cellar by virtue of a season sweep at the hands of the Hawkeyes. Jordan Hulls had 24 in the loss to Iowa. Indiana had a balanced attack against Minnesota (five players scored between 8 and 12 points in the win). Tom Crean is building a solid foundation for the future. But Indiana will have to live with moral victories for the time being. The Hoosiers have two road games this week: at Purdue Tuesday and at Michigan Saturday.
Until next week.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Murphy's Pub: Evaluating Bruce Weber
Illinois lost to Northwestern today, at Northwestern 71-70, dropping Illinois to 5-5 in the Big 10, including losses to Indiana and Penn State and sending the Illini hurtling toward the bubble. But I am not here to talk about today's game. I am here to write about the past and the future. This is Bruce Weber's 8th season in Champaign, and I am going to take a completely unbiased look at Weber's tenure in Champaign.
Season 1 - 2003-2004 - (26-7, 13-3 in Big 10, Big 10 Champs, loss to Duke in the Sweet Sixteen). Weber's first season at Illinois was a success. Weber had trouble getting his team to buy in. But when they did, Deron Williams became the most improved player in the Big 10. A good start to the Weber regime.
Season 2 - 2004-2005 - (37-2, 15-1 in Big 10, Big 10 Champs, National runner up). Without a doubt the most successful season in Illinois history. Anyone that follow Illinois basketball knows everything about this team. Deron Williams, Luther Head, Dee Brown, James Augustine, and Roger Powell. The most talented team in Illinois history (arguably) and a starting five that was well suited to Weber's coaching. Bruce Weber earned a lot of goodwill out of this team. He did a phenomenal job with a great deal of talent.
Season 3 - 2005-2006 - (26-7, 11-5, 2nd in the Big 10, lost to Washington in the second round of the tournament). The last time Illinois won an NCAA tournament game with a 78-69 win over Air Force. Dee and Augustine were the holdovers from the '05 team and carried the Illini all year. Illinois blew a lead late against Washington, starting what would become a disturbing trend of letting late leads slip.
Season 4 - 2006-2007 - (23-12, 9-7, 4th in Big 10, lost to Virginia Tech in the first round of the tournament). Warren Carter and Richard McBride were the Seniors for the Illini, and the team leaders. As fans, we talked ourselves through an uninspiring season by saying, next year will be better. McBride and Carter are the problem. Young Jamar Smith, Brian Randle and Shaun Pruitt will make things better next year. Recruiting usually picks up two or three seasons after an amazing team. Poor excuses, all of them. Weber did alright with a not very talented team.
Season 5 - 2007-2008 - (16-19, 5-13, 9th in Big 10, no postseason). Pruitt and Randle were the Seniors and, again, we convinced ourselves that the seniors were the problem. That the recruiting was going to pick back up. This season was on the seniors, not on the coaching. This was a tough year to support Bruce Weber. Eric Gordon, Evan Turner and Derrick Rose were the high profile recruiting misses that year. And it was the freshman year for Weber's most important recruiting class: Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Bill Cole.
Season 6 - 2008-2009 - (24-10, 11-7, 2nd in the Big 10, loss to Western Kentucky in the first round of the tournament). Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem paired with Davis, Tisdale and McCamey in the starting lineup. Honestly, this was one of Weber's better coaching jobs. We Weber apologists had our ammunition. The Illini were losing Frazier (a warrior, but an extreme liability on the offensive end) but were returning 3 Sophomore starters. The last few years were the exception, not the rule. The glory days were returning. Weber had his best recruiting class ever coming in. DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, Joseph Bertrand, and Tyler Griffey. Bruce had figured out this recruiting thing, he was coaching at a high level, and the future looked bright.
Season 7 - 2009-2010 - (21-15, 10-8, 5th in Big 10, NIT quarterfinals). The Illini regressed. Tisdale and Davis did not make the strides we hoped for. Brandon Paul had an inconsistent freshman year; so did Tyler Griffey, but both gave us plenty of reason for optimisim. DJ Richardson was Big 10 Freshman of the Year. The Illini missed Chester Frazier, though. The recruiting was strong again. The Illini were going to be very good next year. Always next year.
Season 8 - 2010-2011 - (15-8, 5-5). Under achieving again, the Illini have lost games to UIC, Indiana, Penn State, and Northwestern. And, more than anything else, we are falling to blaming the seniors again. We blamed Warren Carter and McBride. We blamed Pruitt and Randle (who probably deserved the blame). We blamed Chester Frazier. And now we are blaming Tisdale, Davis and McCamey for the Illini under achieving.
So what's the score on Weber.
Positive Seasons
We can count Weber's first two seasons as wins. The third season, they met expectations. Since Dee Brown and James Augustine graduated, Weber's teams have under achieved every single year (with the sole exception of Chester Frazier's Senior year). Not a good score for Bruce.
Recruiting
Recruiting has more or less fixed itself. Weber has landed the Mr. Basketball in Illinois in back to back years (Paul and Richmond). He has his third straight top 25 class coming in next year.
Coaching Strategy
Bruce is steadfast in his strategies. Illinois runs a motion offense and they play man to man defense. The motion is designed to free up open shots for the guards and to get easy looks for the big men. But the motion is complicated and we always hear that the Freshman don't get it. The motion also does not provide a lot of offensive freedom to the guards to beat guys off the dribble. But the worst thing, to me, about Bruce as a coach is that I just don't think he would be fun to play for. He spends entire games on the sidelines yelling at his players about where they should be. You yell in practice to prepare your players for the game. During the game, you absolutely do not want your players looking over their shoulders trying to figure out what the coach is yelling about. Weber is not the only guy to coach like that, I just do not think it is effective coaching.
Player Development
Here is the ultimate black mark on Bruce Weber's record. Other than Deron Williams and Luther Head, name me a player that improved under Weber at Illinois. Carter and McBride were mediocre. Pruitt and Randle were the same. McCamey improved offensively, but never showcased any desire to play defense. Tisdale and Davis are essentially the same players they were as Sophomores. Even on this year's team, DJ Richardson and Tyler Griffey have regressed. And throughout all this, we have blamed the Seniors. Why? Because that's who Bruce told us to blame. Pruitt and Randle were highly regarded recruits. Weber could not get through to them. Tisdale, Davis and McCamey were starters on an overachieving Illini team as Sophomores. Dan Dakich said it best: Davis, Tisdale and McCamey never matured. They are still losing almost every single close game. Eventually, this has to fall on the coaching.
Bottom Line
At the end of the day, Bruce Weber is a very nice guy. He runs a clean program. He coached the most successful team in Illinois history. I really, really want to like him. But, what I can take away from the above, is that Weber needs a Deron Williams, a uniquely talented and driven basketball player, to win games at Illinois. Here is the bottom line: if Illinois does not make the tournament this year, or if they back their way in again, Weber needs to go. I can understand giving him another year to see what his vaunted '09 recruiting class can do as Juniors, without McCamey, Tisdale and Davis, but I cannot fathom Weber getting another year if the Illini continue to under achieve.
Illinois is not Duke, not North Carolina, not Kansas. They are not basketball royalty. But they do have a fertile base to recruit talent out of (Chicago) and they have a rabid fan base. It is not too much to ask for to have the Illini contend for the Big 10 title year in and year out. And it is not too much to ask for the Illini to contend for a National Title once or twice a decade. Going five years without winning an NCAA tournament game is inexcusable. Bruce may do enough to keep his job this year, but continuing mediocrity is not acceptable. Down at Murphy's Pub, we're drinking away the sting of another bad road loss tonight, something we have been doing way too often of late. Go Illini.
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