If the Bulls win the NBA title this year, it will be an unprecedented achievement in modern NBA history. You are reading that and thinking: Wow, that’s a fair amount of hyperbole from a Bulls homer. But I have the facts to back it up. Since 1984, the list of NBA champions with their best player in parenthesis:
1984: Boston (Bird)
1985: Lakers (Magic/Kareem)
1986: Boston (Bird)
1987: Lakers (Magic/Kareem)
1988: Lakers (Magic/Kareem)
1989: Detroit (Isiah)
1990: Detroit (Isiah)
1991: Chicago (Jordan)
1992: Chicago (Jordan)
1993: Chicago (Jordan)
1994: Houston (Hakeem)
1995: Houston (Hakeem)
1996: Chicago (Jordan)
1997: Chicago (Jordan)
1998: Chicago (Jordan)
1999: San Antonio (Duncan)
2000: Lakers (Shaq/Kobe)
2001: Lakers (Shaq/Kobe)
2002: Lakers (Shaq/Kobe)
2003: San Antonio (Duncan)
2004: Detroit (Billups)
2005: San Antonio (Duncan)
2006: Miami (Shaq/Wade)
2007: San Antonio (Duncan)
2008: Boston (Pierce/Garnett)
2009: Lakers (Kobe)
2010: Lakers (Kobe)
Of those teams, only the ‘89, ‘90 and ‘04 Pistons won the title when their best player was their point guard (arguably every title won by the Showtime Lakers falls in this category as well, but the fact that Magic had the second best center of all-time and the guy who scored the most points in NBA history excepts those Lakers teams from this discussion). The ‘04 Pistons were unique in that their entire starting lineup was, at a minimum, a fringe All-Star. The Isiah Pistons were the closest approximation to the current Bulls team. They had a rugged frontline, a deep bench, and clearly, their best player was their point guard (Lambieer = Noah, Vinnie Johnson was their Kyle Korver - a guy they can run offense through for extended minutes off the bench, Deng was Mark Aguirre). But Isiah Thomas had a perfect complement in Joe Dumars. Dumars was good enough to carry the Pistons offensively for stretches, and an extremely good defender (at 6'3" you could argue he defended Jordan better than anyone ever). The Bulls lack their Joe Dumars (though if you could combine the best attributes of Korver and Bogans you might create a Dumars clone - the other half of Keith Borver would be the worst player in the league). And therefore, they run afoul of the fundamental rule in modern NBA history, to which only two Pistons teams are the exception: you do not win a title with a point guard as your best player and the focal point of your offense. You win with a dominant, taller scoring guard, a dominant big man or both. The 2010-2011 Bulls have neither. The counter to this argument, of course, is that Isiah proved that what mattered was not whether you had the taller scoring guard or a dominant big man, but rather whether you had the best player. And the Bulls should feel comfortable that, other than against the Heat, in the East, they will have the best player on the floor at all times.
But think about the great point guards over the past 20 years: Gary Payton made the ‘96 Finals with Kemp, but when Kemp lost his edge, Payton never made it back. John Stockton made the ‘97 and ‘98 Finals, but it was his relationship with Karl Malone that got them there - and again, no titles to their credit. Jason Kidd made the Finals with New Jersey in ‘02 and ‘03 when he quite literally was their team (with all due respect to Kerry Kittles, Kenyon Martin and Richard Jefferson). Kidd was at his apex those two years and made everyone 20% better offensively. But Kidd failed to win a title. Steve Nash won MVPs in ‘05 and ‘06 but he never made a Finals. Chris Paul and Deron Williams have yet to make a Finals as the best player on their respective teams. The last small guard to have the offensive responsibilities of Rose was Allen Iverson, and he made the Finals only once, in 2001 (although it should be noted that the Sixers destroyed Iverson’s title chances by never giving him a remotely decent supporting cast).
Rose is a great player; in a few weeks, the smart money has him winning the MVP award at the age of 22. He is brilliant with the ball in his hands, a combination of Iverson and Lebron offensively with an improved jump shot that forces defenders to go above, not below, high screens to defend the shot. Every team in his way has weaknesses. The Celtics are aging and, after the Kendrick Perkins trade, lost some of their edge. The Heat have absolutely no bench and will be destroyed by the Bulls on the inside. Orlando and San Antonio may not get out of the first round. The Lakers clearly cannot defend a quick point guard (see the re-emergence of Chris Paul as he kills the Lakers). Dallas is as much of a one man show on offense as the Bulls are. The Thunder are younger than the Bulls (though if the Bulls make the Finals and run into OKC, that’s a nightmare matchup for the Bulls - Westbrook is as athletic as Rose and Durant fits the bill of tall, elite scorer that wins titles). The Bulls aren’t competing against the Showtime Lakers, the Bird Celtics, the Jordan Bulls, the Shaq/Kobe Lakers or even the Duncan Spurs. There is no dominant NBA team this year and the title is there for the taking, just like it was for a unique Pistons team in ‘04. But years of recent NBA history tell us that high scoring point guards don’t win titles. Then again, before '91, Jordan wasn't going to win a title without a big man. Six titles later, conventional wisdom changed again. Rose is going to need a lot of help from Boozer and Deng to change that conventional wisdom and hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.
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