Today we are talking about the first round in the East. I touched on the two series I thought would be close in yesterday’s column (New York-Boston and Atlanta-Orlando) but today we will go in depth:
(8) Indiana Pacers v. (1) Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have a hard fought 2-0 series edge as the series heads back to Conseco Fieldhouse. Believe it or not, but Tyler Hansborough is an extremely difficult matchup for the Bulls. All year, the Bulls defense has thrived because they are such good help defenders. As a result, the Bulls are able to hide Rose (an average - but improving - defender) and Boozer (an average defender at best). Well, the help defense leads to open shots for Hansborough, and with Boozer struggling to close out, Hansborough gets 18 footers to his heart’s content. Ultimately, though, late in both Game 1 and Game 2 when the defenses tighten up, the Pacers lack a go to guy to make the Bulls pay. They may steal a game either Thursday or Sunday in Indy, but I cannot imagine this series going past a 5th game. *Note, expect a very long post later this week or over the weekend detailing my thoughts about the Bulls playoff chances as a whole*
(7) Philadelphia v. (2) Miami
Not a lot to say about this series after the rout that was Game 2 in Miami yesterday. The Sixers overachieved all year behind a pretty good coaching job by Doug Collins. But they just have a weird roster. Andre Iguodola improved greatly this year, embracing his role as a defensive stopper, but they really lack anyone with offensive punch. The Heat’s weaknesses (lack of size, who gets the ball at crunch time, lack of any semblance of a bench) will not be tested by the Sixers. This series will be lucky to go 5.
(6) Knicks v. (3) Celtics
One of the more intriguing postseason matchups on paper (made slightly worse by the Chauncey Billups injury). Boston and New York are rife with basketball history, the Knicks have been waiting since Ewing retired to root for a good basketball team, the Celtics, for the third striaght year have been pronounced to be on their last legs, oh, and there was something about a Carmelo Anthony trade this offseason? This series is a story in contrasts: the Celtics are a strong defensive team, the Knicks are all offense. Ultimately, this Knicks team has two fantastic pieces in place for the future (Melo and Amare) but they need to model themselves after the Bulls. Surround two subpar defenders with good defensive players, surround them with a defensive minded coach (not Mike D’Antoni), and see if you can contend with Chicago and Miami for the next 5 years. In a series of offense vs. defense, you pick defense (especially with Billups out). Celtics will win in 6.
(5) Atlanta v. (4) Orlando
John Hollinger had a pretty good article today about how Jason Collins is the key to the series because he is in the league for the sole purpose of defending Dwight Howard and Shaq. Now, Howard went off for 46 points and 19 rebounds in a Game 1 loss, but, according to Hollinger, Howard has 12 points and 6 turnovers when Collins was on the floor. This is not the same Orlando team that made the finals in ‘09. Remember that Hedo Turkoglu was the crunch time scorer on that team (before completely destroying his career for a year in Toronto and returning to Orlando a very different player). Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas have given Orlando very little of late. Atlanta, on the other hand, has one of the better young players in the game in Al Horford and high scoring, but somewhat streaky and certainly overpaid scorers in Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. And they have the most athletic player in the series in Josh Smith - a guy that for some reason fancies himself a jump shooter. The Hawks lost their last 6 to end the season and nearly every basketball writer decided they had quit on their coach. On top of all that, the Bulls would run through Atlanta in Round 2. So I am trying desperately to talk myself into Atlanta winning this series. At the end of the day, Arenas will get hot one game, Orlando will get some offense from Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson, and the Hawks will regress to the mediocre offensive team they are. Orlando wins in 7.
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