I am going to piggyback off of every major NBA writer here today and say that this year’s playoffs have the potential to be the best in my lifetime. After everyone has played one game, I am going to preview the conference’s and preview each first round matchup. I am previewing the West today because there is a lot more uncertainty in the early rounds out West (I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Hawks and, maybe, the Knicks are the only lower seeds in the East who could pull off a round 1 shocker). Without further adieu:
(8) Memphis v. (1) San Antonio
Memphis stole game 1 in San Antonio yesterday and, really are in a position to star in the most interesting 1 v. 8 matchup since Golden State shocked the Mavs in 2007. In basketball, it is all about matchups. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol (with an underrated Darrell Arthur coming off the bench) have the talent and strength to wear down an aging frontcourt of Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess. The Spurs desperately need Manu Ginobli back because he is the only guy they have who can draw a double team and create for his teammates. Really, it is unfortunate for the Grizzlies that they lost Rudy Gay to injury. A healthy Gay would give them the pieces to beat a full strength San Antonio. As it stands, if the Spurs get Ginobli back, they should move past their hiccup in game 1 and move on to the next round.
(7) New Orleans v. (2) Lakers
Another massive upset pulled off in the West. Chris Paul looked like CP3 circa 2008 in shredding the Lakers defense in game 1. Of course, everyone overreacted to this game by telling us that “Chris Paul is the greatest point guard ever” (let’s ignore the fact that Paul actually went scoreless in 29 minutes against Mike Conley and Memphis two weeks ago) and “What is Wrong with the Lakers?!” The reality of the situation is that the Lakers are not built to stop an elite point guard. Derek Fisher can’t guard Chris Paul and neither can Kobe or Artest. The Lakers last two titles were won against a team without an elite point guard (Orlando) and in spite of their inability to stop Rondo (Boston). For the Hornets to win this series, they will need vintage Chris Paul every single game in addition to continuing no shows from the LA frontline. Extremely unlikely. The Lakers will win this series, but Paul exposes their glaring weakness defensively (how many points would D Rose score in a finals matchup against the Lakers?).
(6) Portland v. (3) Dallas
JA Adande from ESPN had a great point about this series on Bill Simmons’ podcast the other day. He essentially compared this series to Wisconsin v. Belmont in the tournament this year. Portland has become such a trendy upset pick that they almost feel like the favorite. And this should be a great series. Dirk v. Aldridge is a matchup of two of the top 15 players in the league. Portland has a better supporting cast as well (Gerald Wallace was the perfect addition to their team). But in a close game late, I would rather have Dirk than anyone on Portland. Dirk will shoot over Wallace and Aldridge will not be able to stay in front of him. I will balk conventional wisdom and take the Mavs in 7.
(5) Denver v. (4) Oklahoma City
A dream matchup for fans of up tempo, attractive basketball. A nightmare matchup for the Nuggets. Since the Melo trade, the Nuggets have run their opponents into the ground. Led by Ty Lawson’s speed, Denver plays fast and scores a lot of points. In fact, I would have liked Denver’s chances against any of the other seeds above them. But Oklahoma City is just as young and their legs are just as fresh. Serge Ibaka, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will gladly get up and down the floor with the Nuggets. And late in a close game, Kevin Durant certainly trumps Aaron Aflalo, Lawson or any other Nugget. Ultimately, the two best players in the series (Durant and Westbrook) play for the Thunder and the Nuggets lose the advantage that their style of play brings to the table; that swings the series to the Thunder in no fewer than 6 games.
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