The NBA playoffs have reached the Conference Semifinals (a fancy term for the 2nd round) and some very interesting storylines remain. In fact, I could make a very persuasive argument that, even as a Bulls fan, the Bulls-Hawks series is the most blase of the 2nd round matchups (that won’t stop me from devoting lots of words to that series). Without further ado:
(3) Dallas v. (2) LA
This has been repeated ad nauseum, but it really is a fascinating stat that bears repeating here: Dirk and Kobe have never faced off in the playoffs. That is incredible. Over the past decade, four teams have been relevant in the West and each team had a long time superstar associated with them. You had the Duncan Spurs, the Nash Suns, the Dirk Mavericks and the Kobe Lakers. To have two of those superstars never meet in the playoffs is fascinating.
Anyway, this should be a great series. Dallas outplayed Portland in 5 of the 6 games in the first round. Dirk was an assassin late, Jason Kidd looked about 10 years younger than he actually is. Shawn Marion looked like he cared. If Dallas is more than just the Dirk show, they could give the Lakers problems. Ultimately though, this is a fairly good matchup for the Lakers. Kidd cannot penetrate like he once did so he won’t expose the Lakers’ glaring weakness defensively (inability to guard point guards). And Dallas does not have a great defensive matchup for Kobe. I see the Lakers winning this one in 6.
(8) Memphis v. (4) Oklahoma City
Memphis has been outstanding in the playoffs. Zach Randolph has played exactly like Carlos Boozer should play. He is a little unorthodox for a big man, falls in love with his jumper a little too frequently, but when his head is on straight, he is a pretty reliable 20-10 power forward. Plus, he pulls Kendrick Perkins or Serge Ibaka away from the basket where both are not that comfortable defensively. With Marc Gasol and Randolph playing inspired basketball, Memphis is winning the war in the trenches and that was the difference in Game 1.
Russell Westbrook is the Achilles Heel for OKC right now. All the talent in the world, but he is not efficient offensively (settling for jumpers far too often late). And in crunch time, he is taking the ball out of Kevin Durant’s hands. If Westbrook embraces his role as the Robin to Durant’s Batman, OKC should be ok. Perkins veteran experience added to the fact that Kevin Durant is the best player in the series will get OKC through a surprisingly tough 7 games.
(3) Boston v. (2) Miami
This is a very, very interesting series. It is worth noting that Boston pretty clearly made the Kendrick Perkins for Jeff Green trade with this series in mind thinking that Green would be another perimeter defender to throw at Wade and Lebron. With that being said, the two keys to the series are Rajon Rondo and Chris Bosh. Wade is going to get his points. Lebron is going to get his points (though I really think that each guy is, at best, 85% as effective as he would be without the other since they both need the ball to be effective and neither guy is an elite shooter). If Bosh can score against Garnett, the Heat will win in 5 or 6. If Boston is to win, Rondo needs to be a threat offensively. In Game 1, the Heat “guarded” Rondo by playing as far off of him as possible. Mike Bibby in his prime could not have stayed in front of Rondo, so if the Heat are forced to respect a jumpshot, the Celtics gain a huge edge. Ultimately, the Heat had to have Game 1 and need Game 2 as well to set the tone for the series. They cannot go to Boston at 1-1. But Miami has the two best players in this series and I don’t think Rondo will make an impact. Miami in 6.
(5) Atlanta v. (1) Chicago
Not a lot of storylines in this matchup. There isn’t a whole lot of bad blood (Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford are former Bulls, but neither really left on bad terms). This is an ideal matchup for the Bulls. Hinrich is a scrappy, underrated defender, but he isn’t 100% and does not have the elite athleticism to challenge Rose in the air. Atlanta lacks an elite shot blocker to give Rose problems and lacks anyone that can score with Rose on a consistent basis (Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson both have their moments, but neither have showcased the ability to carry Atlanta night in and night out). The key for the Bulls in this series is getting Carlos Boozer going. Boozer was terrible against Indiana. The Bulls will need a healthy, effective Boozer to make it out of the East and this series is the ideal time for Boozer to get going. The Bulls win in 5.
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