THE WINNERS
Milwaukee Brewers - Can there be any argument here? The Brewers were clearly more flawed in one respect than another. In case you missed it, The Crew were fourth in the NL in runs scored last season with 750. That's just 22 behind the vaunted Phillies. Fact is, Milwaukee's lineup is scarier now than when they scored the same 750 and lost in the NLDS to those same Phillies. No less than 5 Brewers starters had at least 23 homeruns. Ryan Braun is nearly a household name (and already would be in a different market), and Casey McGehee has made Jim Hendry look like an idiot for the 500th time. The Brewers will mash, just as they have for the last 5 or 6 years. But, they'll need pitching.
What they did: They got pitching. Message to all you GMs out there, THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT. Doug Melvin knew his team couldn't compete with St. Louis with Yovani Gallardo as their ace. Gallardo is a fine pitcher, but he will be an impressive number two this year instead of a serviceable number one. Why? Because the Brewers nabbed Zack Greinke out from under just about everyone. And they didn't stop. Also on the 2011 roster: Shaun Marcum. Many people forget that Marcum was the Blue Jays' Opening Day starter last year, and he no-hit the eventual AL World Series representative Texas Rangers for 6 innings. Shaun Marcum is a vastly underrated pitcher, mostly from playing behind Roy Halladay and Tommy John surgery (which he showed zero effects from).
To put this all another way, the Brewers of 2011 will feature three teams' 2010 Opening Day starters as their 1-2-3. All this plus a full season of John Axford as a closer, and it's tough to pick against the Brewers in this division. cheers to Doug Melvin for recognizing the uncertainty ahead with free agency, and deciding to gamble the future to win now. Fortune, especially in baseball, favors the bold.
St. Louis Cardinals - I'm betting most Cardinals fans see where I'm going with this. No, trading Brendan Ryan for Maikel Cleto does not come close to addressing pitching, snagging the inimitable Ryan Theriot from the Dodgers does not improve doubleplay prospects, and signing Lance Berkman means little given that Busch Stadium doesn't have a short porch to either field. But, they re-signed Tony La Russa, Dave Duncan, and Mark McGwire. There is plenty left for John Mozeliak to do before February, but when you can keep one of the most successful coaching staffs in tact, you've done something.
Cincinnati Reds - The Reds have a gigantic problem: MVP Joey Votto does not seem to want to stay in Cincy when he gets the opportunity to leave. But, hats off to the Reds' front office for clearly making pursuit of Votto a priority. Cincinnati was an incredible team last year, one that a lot of people had figured would take two or three years to mature. If last year was any indication, this is a dangerous team that will be focused mostly on fine-tuning instead of clunky pursuits like finding leaders and learning roles. The Reds' number one priority was keeping this team together, and maybe adding some clubhouse presence to up the number of close wins (as opposed to the blowouts they became accustomed to). So, they locked up Jay Bruce for six years, Bronson Arroyo for three, and grabbed Miguel Cairo (not a difference-maker, but seemingly a stability guy and decent bat off the bench). Like the Cards, the Reds won mostly by not losing.
THE DISAPPEARED
Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates - I've heard some talk of Houston being a darkhorse for a wild card bid this season. But, I can't for the life of me figure out why. Hunter Pence is a major leaguer, and Michael Bourn is as good a table-setter as you're going to find. But, what beyond that? This is a team that was 28th in the league in OBP last season, and they didn't add a bat. Brett Myers showed some good things, but forgive me for thinking a punk that hits his wife is not going to be up-and-down forever. The Astros have no real closer, and have trouble manufacturing runs.
The Pirates are who we thought they were. They signed Ronny Cedeno, which is actually a smart move because he has gotten better over the last two years. Andrew McCutchen is exciting, and Pedro Alvarez could end up being as good as everyone hoped. But, outside Paul Maholm, their pitching is nonexistent and the farm doesn't seem to show any over the horizon. As soon as it becomes clear what the Pirates can and need to do, we'll tell you here.
THE LOSERS
The Cubs added Kerry Wood, and any real Cubs fan should be grateful for it. With his injury history, he likely doesn't have many years left, and if he could finish with Chicago, it would be very much like the Konerko signing on the South Side. (Sox fans that dispute this are blinded by the droves of mindless Cubs "fans" and should take five minutes to talk to a Cubs Fan; Kerry Wood loves Chicago, and Cubs Fans love him.) But, the bullpen wasn't really the Cubs' problem. Starting pitching was spotty, and Hendry didn't blink at Greinke. Infield defense has been below average, and the Cubs re-signed Jeff Baker, whose defense is either error-filled (.903 fielding % at 3B) or untested (just 20 games started at 2B). Team batting average was middling, and they added Carlos Pena's .196 for $10 million.
This was certainly not the best market. I figured the Cubs would make a run at Jayson Werth, but the ludicrous contract the Nats gave him would've been foolish to mess with. Vlad Guerrero will probably go for cheap, and it's worth it to wait because he may be practically useless defensively. As much as I love Carl Pavano, and think Chicago as a city would be perfect for him, you can't be that kind of homerun pitcher in Wrigley.
But, there were moves to be made. If Adrian Gonzalez was tradeable (and Boston proved he was), Hendry should've been in the conversation. Yet, not a whisper. The Cubs have prospects to deal (many of which are drastically overvalued at this very second), and yet the Brewers came away with Greinke, and maybe the greatest mistake of all was not using the Cliff Lee saga to to leverage a Zambrano-to-the-Yankees deal to fleece the Bronx.
The Cubs are in the top-three most profitable franchises in baseball, and they managed a D+ to the Pirates C-. My family's asked me for years, "Why the hell do you root for those losers? They're losers. Always will be losers." As long as Jim Hendry has a job up North, they're right.
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