Previewing the Big 10

After a brief holiday hiatus, and after the first two games of the Big 10 season (Penn State over Indiana yesterday and Purdue destroyed Michigan this morning), today is the perfect time to preview the upcoming Big 10 basketball season. This post will provide a short capsule of each team and my projected order of finish from back to forward.

Before delving into this, I will provide a short disclaimer. One of the dirty little secrets of the Big 10 schedule is that there is unbalanced scheduling. In an 18 game slate, with 11 teams, each team plays 8 teams twice and two teams once. More balanced than the previous 16 game schedule, but still not a perfect system. As a result, scheduling plays a distinct role in the final order of finish. Without further adieu:

11) Iowa (7-5 overall, 0-0 Big 10). Iowa lost at home to Iowa State and San Diego State, lost to Xavier and Long Beach State at neutral locations, and suffered a close loss to Wake Forest on the road. Their only win against a top conference was a 55-47 win against Alabama. They also are a victim of the unbalanced schedule, playing fellow bottom feeder Penn State only once (and on the road at that) though they catch a break avoiding playing at Wisconsin. They open up the Big 10 season Wednesday night against Illinois at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City.

Iowa does not score a lot of points, averaging just over 70 a game and shooting under 44% as a team. Their leading scorer, Matt Gatens, averages 11.7 points on 38% shooting. Iowa has no real star. They go 8 deep and first year coach Fran McCaffery looks to have his hands full this year.

10) Indiana (9-5, 0-1). Indiana started the season 6-0, but all of those were in Bloomington against relative minnows. They lost at Boston College and Kentucky and lost to Northern Iowa and Colorado on neutral sites. Indiana's hopes to rocket up the standings took a huge hit when they lost, at home, to Penn State yesterday. Indiana only plays Michigan State once, but they actually only play Penn State once as well (odd since they opened up the Big 10 against them).

Christian Watford has been good for IU this year, averaging 17.2 points and just under 6 rebounds a game. Watford, however, was limited to 3 points in the loss to Penn State. Indiana had high hopes for Maurice Creek who had a freshman season shortened by injury last year (though he averaged over 16 points a game before the injury). Creek has struggled at times this year and did not start against Penn State. Tom Crean is still attempting to dig out of the mess Kelvin Sampson left and, good news for Indiana fans, the recruiting has picked up significantly. If IU fans remain patient, better days lie ahead.

9) Penn State (8-4, 1-0). Penn State lost at Mississippi and Virginia Tech. They also were embarrassed at home by Maryland (scoring 39 points in the loss) and suffered an awful home loss to Maine. Penn State has the misfortune to only play their fellow bottom feeders Iowa and Indiana once. Penn State gets the nod over Iowa and Indiana in the competition for 9th based almost exclusively on their road win against Indiana and the existence of one Taylor Battle.

Taylor Battle has been a thorn in the side of Big 10 foes for the past 4 years, never averaging less than 10 points a game. Last year, as a Junior, Battle, listed as a generous 6 feet even, averaged 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Battle will be worth 2 or 3 Big 10 wins this year himself and is averaging better than 20 points per game currently. Battle makes Penn State watchable and that gives them the nod for 9th.

8) Michigan (10-3, 0-1). Awful home loss today to Purdue notwithstanding, Michigan hung tough against Syracuse losing 53-50 and also lost to UTEP, both at neutral sites. They won at Clemson and beat a tough Oakland team, giving them betters wins than anyone below them in the standings. Michigan plays Illinois once (on the road) and they actually don't play Purdue again (another weird scheduling quirk Big 10).

Michigan does not have a lot of talent. Darius Morris (15.8 points and 7.5 assists 53% shooting) and Tim Haradaway, Jr. (11.8 points) are their best players. Michigan does not score a lot of points (69.7 per game) but is better than the teams below them and much worse than everyone above.

7) Northwestern (9-1, 0-0). Northwestern has never made the NCAA tournament. There, I said the most repeated fact in NCAA history. Seriously, turn on a Northwestern broadcast and they mention that fact roughly 78 times each game. With that being said, Northwestern's only loss thus far this year was at St. John's. Georgia Tech is their only major conference win though.

John Shurna is a very good player, averaging over 23 points a game and shooting an astonishing 61% from the field and 62% from three. But Shurna is not without help. Michael Thompson is a good point guard and Drew Crawford is a solid second scoring option. Northwestern's schedule (Purdue and Ohio State once) makes them a strong contender to make their first trip to the tournament in school history.

6) Minnesota (11-1, in progress at Wisconsin right now). The top 6 in the Big 10 could end up in almost any order. Minnesota beat North Carolina and West Virginia at a neutral site. Their only loss was at home to Virginia. Minnesota comes in 6th for me because they played the softest non-conference schedule of the top 6. Minnesota plays Wisconsin and Illinois once each, so the schedule helps.

Minnesota is a strong rebounding team, averaging over 40 a game. Trevor Mbawke (13.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game) and Blake Hoffarber (13.8 points) are the lead scorers for a very balanced attack (4 players with better than 10 points a game). The Gophers are integrating Devoe Joseph back in after an early 6 game suspension and the Tubby Smith led team should make the tournament for the second straight year.

5) Illinois (10-3, 0-0). Proud of myself for avoiding the homer pick and placing the Illini higher. Illinois has good wins against Maryland at a neutral site, home against North Carolina, and at Gonzaga. They lost in overtime to a good Texas team, but, as posted here, suffered an awful loss to UIC at the United Center, and gave away a game against a good Missouri team in St. Louis. The unbalanced schedule hurts Illinois (Michigan and Minnesota once each, and they have to go to Williams Arena for the meeting with Minnesota - Illinois never plays well in that barn).

Demetri McCamey is very good but he struggled to get involved early against Missouri and was poor against UIC. Illinois is on a 2 game losing streak heading into tomorrow's game at Iowa and really need to avoid a letdown. The Illini go as their guards go and are very weak in the frontcourt (literally, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale are bean poles). The Illini could win any game, but they have struggled to put teams away all year, a strategy that will not work against the majority of the Big 10 and could lead to some embarrasing losses.

4) Michigan State (8-4, 0-0). Sparty lost to UConn, Duke, Texas, and Syracuse. Their only good preseason win was against Washington. Still, we have seen this formula many, many times from Izzo led Michigan State teams. Tough non-conference schedule, people write them off, and then they make the Final Four. Write them off at your own peril as they nearly always peak in February and March. Sparty plays Ohio State (at Ohio State) and Indiana once each.

Michigan State is experienced. Kalin Lucas, Draymond Green, Durrell Summers, they have all been through this before. Michigan State may take awhile to hit their stride and have a tough opener hosting Minnesota, but Michigan State then travels to Penn State and Northwestern after that. If they start 3-0 in the Big 10, they will be in great shape to contend for the Big 10 title.

3) Purdue (12-1, 1-0). Bad loss to Richmond, and the absence of Robbie Hummel notwithstanding, Purdue had a great win at Virginia Tech in the Big 10 challenge and a fantastic start to the Big 10 season winning at Michigan. Purdue plays Minnesota and Northwestern each once.

This Purdue team is experienced (JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore each average just under 20 points a game, carrying the scoring load they lost with the Hummel injury). Purdue will rely on Moore and Johnson to score and provide leadership. Matt Painter's Purdue teams defend and, as a result, they will be in most games, even if Johnson and Moore struggle. The reliance on Moore and Johnson, however, will cause Purdue to finish below the top 2.

2) Wisconsin (10-2, in progress against Minnesota). Wisconsin lost at UNLV and to Notre Dame on a neutral floor, but beat Boston College, NC State and Marquette. Wisconsin plays Minnesota and Iowa once. So why Wisconsin in second, especially in light of their two bad losses? Because Wisconsin never loses at Kohl in the Big 10 (other than the occasional loss to Illinois).

Jon Leuer is a very good player and the perfect big man for Bo Ryan's system. He is a fantastic shooter (51% overall, 50% from 3, 80% from the line), scores inside and out, can rebound (7.3 per game) and block shots (1.8 per game). Leuer is the best big man in the conference not named Jared Sullinger, and it is a pretty big gap down to number 3. Jordan Taylor is a strong second scorer. Wisconsin, like Purdue, will defend and they will be a very tough out at Kohl. The fact of the matter, however, is that 2-6 in the Big 10 could be any order of the above. Given the home court advantage, Wisconsin gets the nod at number 2 for me.

1) Ohio State (13-0, 0-0). Fairly untested, winning at Florida and at Florida State and with wins at home against Oakland and South Carolina their only real victories of note. Ohio State plays Michigan State and Northwestern once.

The fact of the matter is that Ohio State has the best player in the Big 10 and maybe the best player in the country. Jared Sullinger averages 17.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game and has been a more than capable replacement for the void left by the departure of Evan Turner. William Buford and David Lighty are athletic guards who can score and defend. Jon Diebler is a great shooter. The Buckeyes have 5 players who average double figures (including Deshaun Thomas who does so in under 20 minutes a game). Ohio State is the most balanced team in the Big 10 and has the best player. As such, they are the best team until someone proves otherwise.