Who would question the worthiness of a team from the mighty SEC?
The nation's best defense.
Who could provide a better match-up than two Heisman frontrunners?
The nation's best defense.
Who could possibly draw more viewers than schools from Alabama and Oregon?
The nation's best defense. (A school from Texas. You remember Texas, right?)
It's not novel to hat the BCS, and that's not even what I'm doing. I'll set aside the arguments that the system is unfair, that there should be a playoff, and wrap my arms around the idea that there's a magical formula that ensures -- even in the toughest of years -- the best possible game between the two best teams. And it's still wrong. This year.
In 2010, college football was handed the gift of the most compelling, most polarizing, most obvious National Championship, and the BCS missed it. Sports is best in contrast. Pitching versus hitting. Scorers versus goalies. Consistent jump shooters versus LeBron James. But, nothing outdoes offense versus defense.
It's not a leap to say the Horned Frogs are the best defense in the country. They lead the NCAA in points allowed (11.4) and total yards allowed (215.4). And of the 3 teams who managed more than 10 points against them, only Oregon State scored the bulk of their points before TCU had run away with the game. But, to which offense should this horned curtain be put?
Next we wonder whether Auburn or Oregon is the top offense. Here, we might find some argument. Oregon seems to have the slight edge because they lead in points per game (49.3) by a touchdown over Auburn (42.6). But, people will likely argue the relative strength of conferences negates the difference. To normalize this, we can look at each team's average performance against the averages of their opponents. The Ducks averaged an incredible 19.4 points better than the average points allowed by each of the teams they faced (minus cupcakes and their game against Oregon). That's 85% more points than the teams normally allowed. Auburn averaged 16.1 points better than their opponents allowed (minus cupcakes and their games against Auburn), or 76.4% better. So, unless you think the SEC is 20% better than the Pac-10, these are a couple of high powered offenses that could equally represent scoring.
The similarities between Auburn and Oregon will likely lead to a very entertaining game. But, it's going to be a lot like watching a 3-point contest: a couple of really talented shooters trying to out-point each other. Oregon's offense has just melted the brains of every team it comes across. TCU threw enough defensive looks at a #5 Utah team to shock their quarterback into tanking for three consecutive weeks. There was a chance to pit irresistible force against immovable object. Yet, in the BCS's quest to calculate every subjectivity to animate an objective "best possible game," Dr. Frankenstein missed a perfectly obvious living dream match-up.
I think you're right that it would have been more fun to have TCU in the national championship game. They'll still get blown out by Wisconsin, so we'll get your offense vs. defense question answered anyways. Maybe just not as strongly as you'd hoped.
ReplyDeleteNice that they're in the Big East now and can be the next 4 game loser to make the BCS.