Mid-(off)Season Winners and Losers: NL Central

It's that time again: we're halfway between the last game of the World Series and the first game of Spring Training, almost to the day.  And, after opening the presents under the tree (I got a dirtbike with pegs and a TurboGrafx-16), I make a habit of checking whether teams gave their fans the free agent equivalent of an iPad, or a busted Lite-Brite.  First...

THE WINNERS

Milwaukee Brewers - Can there be any argument here?  The Brewers were clearly more flawed in one respect than another.  In case you missed it,  The Crew were fourth in the NL in runs scored last season with 750.  That's just 22 behind the vaunted Phillies.  Fact is, Milwaukee's lineup is scarier now than when they scored the same 750 and lost in the NLDS to those same Phillies.  No less than 5 Brewers starters had at least 23 homeruns.  Ryan Braun is nearly a household name (and already would be in a different market), and Casey McGehee has made Jim Hendry look like an idiot for the 500th time.  The Brewers will mash, just as they have for the last 5 or 6 years.  But, they'll need pitching.

What they did:  They got pitching.  Message to all you GMs out there, THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT.  Doug Melvin knew his team couldn't compete with St. Louis with Yovani Gallardo as their ace.  Gallardo is a fine pitcher, but he will be an impressive number two this year instead of a serviceable number one.  Why?  Because the Brewers nabbed Zack Greinke out from under just about everyone.  And they didn't stop.  Also on the 2011 roster: Shaun Marcum.  Many people forget that Marcum was the Blue Jays' Opening Day starter last year, and he no-hit the eventual AL World Series representative Texas Rangers for 6 innings.  Shaun Marcum is a vastly underrated pitcher, mostly from playing behind Roy Halladay and Tommy John surgery (which he showed zero effects from).

To put this all another way, the Brewers of 2011 will feature three teams' 2010 Opening Day starters as their 1-2-3.  All this plus a full season of John Axford as a closer, and it's tough to pick against the Brewers in this division.  cheers to Doug Melvin for recognizing the uncertainty ahead with free agency, and deciding to gamble the future to win now.  Fortune, especially in baseball, favors the bold.

St. Louis Cardinals - I'm betting most Cardinals fans see where I'm going with this.  No, trading Brendan Ryan for Maikel Cleto does not come close to addressing pitching, snagging the inimitable Ryan Theriot from the Dodgers does not improve doubleplay prospects, and signing Lance Berkman means little given that Busch Stadium doesn't have a short porch to either field.  But, they re-signed Tony La Russa, Dave Duncan, and Mark McGwire.  There is plenty left for John Mozeliak to do before February, but when you can keep one of the most successful coaching staffs in tact, you've done something.

Cincinnati Reds - The Reds have a gigantic problem: MVP Joey Votto does not seem to want to stay in Cincy when he gets the opportunity to leave.  But, hats off to the Reds' front office for clearly making pursuit of Votto a priority.  Cincinnati was an incredible team last year, one that a lot of people had figured would take two or three years to mature.  If last year was any indication, this is a dangerous team that will be focused mostly on fine-tuning instead of clunky pursuits like finding leaders and learning roles.  The Reds' number one priority was keeping this team together, and maybe adding some clubhouse presence to up the number of close wins (as opposed to the blowouts they became accustomed to).  So, they locked up Jay Bruce for six years, Bronson Arroyo for three, and grabbed Miguel Cairo (not a difference-maker, but seemingly a stability guy and decent bat off the bench).  Like the Cards, the Reds won mostly by not losing.

THE DISAPPEARED

Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates - I've heard some talk of Houston being a darkhorse for a wild card bid this season.  But, I can't for the life of me figure out why.  Hunter Pence is a major leaguer, and Michael Bourn is as good a table-setter as you're going to find.  But, what beyond that?  This is a team that was 28th in the league in OBP last season, and they didn't add a bat.  Brett Myers showed some good things, but forgive me for thinking a punk that hits his wife is not going to be up-and-down forever.  The Astros have no real closer, and have trouble manufacturing runs.

The Pirates are who we thought they were.  They signed Ronny Cedeno, which is actually a smart move because he has gotten better over the last two years.  Andrew McCutchen is exciting, and Pedro Alvarez could end up being as good as everyone hoped.  But, outside Paul Maholm, their pitching is nonexistent and the farm doesn't seem to show any over the horizon.  As soon as it becomes clear what the Pirates can and need to do, we'll tell you here.

THE LOSERS

 Remember the praise I heaped on Casey McGehee?  Check out his baseball-reference.com page here and read the yellowish sponsor box about a quarter of the way down the page.  This is really what it comes down to.  It's no secret that the Ricketts's family wallet makes the Tribune's look as open as Steve Johnson (ooh), but Hendry has some money to work with.  And some coveted farm toys.  But, to this point, he's mostly thrown it away.

The Cubs added Kerry Wood, and any real Cubs fan should be grateful for it.  With his injury history, he likely doesn't have many years left, and if he could finish with Chicago, it would be very much like the Konerko signing on the South Side.  (Sox fans that dispute this are blinded by the droves of mindless Cubs "fans" and should take five minutes to talk to a Cubs Fan; Kerry Wood loves Chicago, and Cubs Fans love him.)  But, the bullpen wasn't really the Cubs' problem.  Starting pitching was spotty, and Hendry didn't blink at Greinke.  Infield defense has been below average, and the Cubs re-signed Jeff Baker, whose defense is either error-filled (.903 fielding % at 3B) or untested (just 20 games started at 2B).  Team batting average was middling, and they added Carlos Pena's .196 for $10 million.

This was certainly not the best market.  I figured the Cubs would make a run at Jayson Werth, but the ludicrous contract the Nats gave him would've been foolish to mess with.  Vlad Guerrero will probably go for cheap, and it's worth it to wait because he may be practically useless defensively.  As much as I love Carl Pavano, and think Chicago as a city would be perfect for him, you can't be that kind of homerun pitcher in Wrigley.

But, there were moves to be made.  If Adrian Gonzalez was tradeable (and Boston proved he was), Hendry should've been in the conversation.  Yet, not a whisper.  The Cubs have prospects to deal (many of which are drastically overvalued at this very second), and yet the Brewers came away with Greinke,  and maybe the greatest mistake of all was not using the Cliff Lee saga to to leverage a Zambrano-to-the-Yankees deal to fleece the Bronx. 

The Cubs are in the top-three most profitable franchises in baseball, and they managed a D+ to the Pirates C-.  My family's asked me for years, "Why the hell do you root for those losers?  They're losers.  Always will be losers."  As long as Jim Hendry has a job up North, they're right.

Murphy's Pub: Illinois Won a Bowl Game??

Illinois defeated Baylor 38-14 yesterday in something called the Texas Bowl. The win held significance for the fact that it was the first time that Illinois had won a bowl game since I was a Junior in high school and the Kurt Kittner led Illini destroyed the Thomas Jones led Virginia Cavaliers in the now defunct Micron PC.com Bowl.

For the sake of brevity, some thoughts from the game:

In the Illini’s last three bowl appearances (Sugar Bowl ‘02, Rose Bowl ‘08 and Texas Bowl ‘10) they played an opponent from the same state as the bowl. LSU in the Superdome, USC in Pasadena, and Baylor in Houston. Thought that was interesting.

Nathan Scheelhaase is growing as a passer. He was extremely efficient in the win, (at one point he had completed his first 13 passes) and avoided making mistakes. The extra month of practice ahead of the bowl game did him wonders.

If this was the last game in the Orange and Blue for Mikel Leshoure, he went out in style. Leshoure is efficient, fast enough to be a home run threat, and is a pretty good receiver out of the backfield as well. Here is hoping that the NFL labor uncertainty and the lack of buzz surrounding Leshoure are enough to convince him to come back for another year.

Welcome back Illini defense. This is a defense that I spent an entire wedding reception raving about to anyone that would listen, and that I told everyone in Indianapolis was the strength of the football team. Until the Michigan game, they were aggressive, had a swagger, and were extremely tough to score on. After the Michigan game, they gave up 38 points to Minnesota, 27 to Northwestern and 25 to Fresno State and looked like a completely different unit. Well, the swagger was back yesterday. Corey Liuget was a monster and the vaunted Baylor offense never looked comfortable after their turnover on the opening possession.

So from everyone here at Murphy’s Pub, raise a glass to the Illini football team as we celebrate a surprisingly entertaining and winning season from the Zooker and the Illini.

Previewing the Big 10

After a brief holiday hiatus, and after the first two games of the Big 10 season (Penn State over Indiana yesterday and Purdue destroyed Michigan this morning), today is the perfect time to preview the upcoming Big 10 basketball season. This post will provide a short capsule of each team and my projected order of finish from back to forward.

Before delving into this, I will provide a short disclaimer. One of the dirty little secrets of the Big 10 schedule is that there is unbalanced scheduling. In an 18 game slate, with 11 teams, each team plays 8 teams twice and two teams once. More balanced than the previous 16 game schedule, but still not a perfect system. As a result, scheduling plays a distinct role in the final order of finish. Without further adieu:

11) Iowa (7-5 overall, 0-0 Big 10). Iowa lost at home to Iowa State and San Diego State, lost to Xavier and Long Beach State at neutral locations, and suffered a close loss to Wake Forest on the road. Their only win against a top conference was a 55-47 win against Alabama. They also are a victim of the unbalanced schedule, playing fellow bottom feeder Penn State only once (and on the road at that) though they catch a break avoiding playing at Wisconsin. They open up the Big 10 season Wednesday night against Illinois at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City.

Iowa does not score a lot of points, averaging just over 70 a game and shooting under 44% as a team. Their leading scorer, Matt Gatens, averages 11.7 points on 38% shooting. Iowa has no real star. They go 8 deep and first year coach Fran McCaffery looks to have his hands full this year.

10) Indiana (9-5, 0-1). Indiana started the season 6-0, but all of those were in Bloomington against relative minnows. They lost at Boston College and Kentucky and lost to Northern Iowa and Colorado on neutral sites. Indiana's hopes to rocket up the standings took a huge hit when they lost, at home, to Penn State yesterday. Indiana only plays Michigan State once, but they actually only play Penn State once as well (odd since they opened up the Big 10 against them).

Christian Watford has been good for IU this year, averaging 17.2 points and just under 6 rebounds a game. Watford, however, was limited to 3 points in the loss to Penn State. Indiana had high hopes for Maurice Creek who had a freshman season shortened by injury last year (though he averaged over 16 points a game before the injury). Creek has struggled at times this year and did not start against Penn State. Tom Crean is still attempting to dig out of the mess Kelvin Sampson left and, good news for Indiana fans, the recruiting has picked up significantly. If IU fans remain patient, better days lie ahead.

9) Penn State (8-4, 1-0). Penn State lost at Mississippi and Virginia Tech. They also were embarrassed at home by Maryland (scoring 39 points in the loss) and suffered an awful home loss to Maine. Penn State has the misfortune to only play their fellow bottom feeders Iowa and Indiana once. Penn State gets the nod over Iowa and Indiana in the competition for 9th based almost exclusively on their road win against Indiana and the existence of one Taylor Battle.

Taylor Battle has been a thorn in the side of Big 10 foes for the past 4 years, never averaging less than 10 points a game. Last year, as a Junior, Battle, listed as a generous 6 feet even, averaged 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Battle will be worth 2 or 3 Big 10 wins this year himself and is averaging better than 20 points per game currently. Battle makes Penn State watchable and that gives them the nod for 9th.

8) Michigan (10-3, 0-1). Awful home loss today to Purdue notwithstanding, Michigan hung tough against Syracuse losing 53-50 and also lost to UTEP, both at neutral sites. They won at Clemson and beat a tough Oakland team, giving them betters wins than anyone below them in the standings. Michigan plays Illinois once (on the road) and they actually don't play Purdue again (another weird scheduling quirk Big 10).

Michigan does not have a lot of talent. Darius Morris (15.8 points and 7.5 assists 53% shooting) and Tim Haradaway, Jr. (11.8 points) are their best players. Michigan does not score a lot of points (69.7 per game) but is better than the teams below them and much worse than everyone above.

7) Northwestern (9-1, 0-0). Northwestern has never made the NCAA tournament. There, I said the most repeated fact in NCAA history. Seriously, turn on a Northwestern broadcast and they mention that fact roughly 78 times each game. With that being said, Northwestern's only loss thus far this year was at St. John's. Georgia Tech is their only major conference win though.

John Shurna is a very good player, averaging over 23 points a game and shooting an astonishing 61% from the field and 62% from three. But Shurna is not without help. Michael Thompson is a good point guard and Drew Crawford is a solid second scoring option. Northwestern's schedule (Purdue and Ohio State once) makes them a strong contender to make their first trip to the tournament in school history.

6) Minnesota (11-1, in progress at Wisconsin right now). The top 6 in the Big 10 could end up in almost any order. Minnesota beat North Carolina and West Virginia at a neutral site. Their only loss was at home to Virginia. Minnesota comes in 6th for me because they played the softest non-conference schedule of the top 6. Minnesota plays Wisconsin and Illinois once each, so the schedule helps.

Minnesota is a strong rebounding team, averaging over 40 a game. Trevor Mbawke (13.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game) and Blake Hoffarber (13.8 points) are the lead scorers for a very balanced attack (4 players with better than 10 points a game). The Gophers are integrating Devoe Joseph back in after an early 6 game suspension and the Tubby Smith led team should make the tournament for the second straight year.

5) Illinois (10-3, 0-0). Proud of myself for avoiding the homer pick and placing the Illini higher. Illinois has good wins against Maryland at a neutral site, home against North Carolina, and at Gonzaga. They lost in overtime to a good Texas team, but, as posted here, suffered an awful loss to UIC at the United Center, and gave away a game against a good Missouri team in St. Louis. The unbalanced schedule hurts Illinois (Michigan and Minnesota once each, and they have to go to Williams Arena for the meeting with Minnesota - Illinois never plays well in that barn).

Demetri McCamey is very good but he struggled to get involved early against Missouri and was poor against UIC. Illinois is on a 2 game losing streak heading into tomorrow's game at Iowa and really need to avoid a letdown. The Illini go as their guards go and are very weak in the frontcourt (literally, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale are bean poles). The Illini could win any game, but they have struggled to put teams away all year, a strategy that will not work against the majority of the Big 10 and could lead to some embarrasing losses.

4) Michigan State (8-4, 0-0). Sparty lost to UConn, Duke, Texas, and Syracuse. Their only good preseason win was against Washington. Still, we have seen this formula many, many times from Izzo led Michigan State teams. Tough non-conference schedule, people write them off, and then they make the Final Four. Write them off at your own peril as they nearly always peak in February and March. Sparty plays Ohio State (at Ohio State) and Indiana once each.

Michigan State is experienced. Kalin Lucas, Draymond Green, Durrell Summers, they have all been through this before. Michigan State may take awhile to hit their stride and have a tough opener hosting Minnesota, but Michigan State then travels to Penn State and Northwestern after that. If they start 3-0 in the Big 10, they will be in great shape to contend for the Big 10 title.

3) Purdue (12-1, 1-0). Bad loss to Richmond, and the absence of Robbie Hummel notwithstanding, Purdue had a great win at Virginia Tech in the Big 10 challenge and a fantastic start to the Big 10 season winning at Michigan. Purdue plays Minnesota and Northwestern each once.

This Purdue team is experienced (JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore each average just under 20 points a game, carrying the scoring load they lost with the Hummel injury). Purdue will rely on Moore and Johnson to score and provide leadership. Matt Painter's Purdue teams defend and, as a result, they will be in most games, even if Johnson and Moore struggle. The reliance on Moore and Johnson, however, will cause Purdue to finish below the top 2.

2) Wisconsin (10-2, in progress against Minnesota). Wisconsin lost at UNLV and to Notre Dame on a neutral floor, but beat Boston College, NC State and Marquette. Wisconsin plays Minnesota and Iowa once. So why Wisconsin in second, especially in light of their two bad losses? Because Wisconsin never loses at Kohl in the Big 10 (other than the occasional loss to Illinois).

Jon Leuer is a very good player and the perfect big man for Bo Ryan's system. He is a fantastic shooter (51% overall, 50% from 3, 80% from the line), scores inside and out, can rebound (7.3 per game) and block shots (1.8 per game). Leuer is the best big man in the conference not named Jared Sullinger, and it is a pretty big gap down to number 3. Jordan Taylor is a strong second scorer. Wisconsin, like Purdue, will defend and they will be a very tough out at Kohl. The fact of the matter, however, is that 2-6 in the Big 10 could be any order of the above. Given the home court advantage, Wisconsin gets the nod at number 2 for me.

1) Ohio State (13-0, 0-0). Fairly untested, winning at Florida and at Florida State and with wins at home against Oakland and South Carolina their only real victories of note. Ohio State plays Michigan State and Northwestern once.

The fact of the matter is that Ohio State has the best player in the Big 10 and maybe the best player in the country. Jared Sullinger averages 17.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game and has been a more than capable replacement for the void left by the departure of Evan Turner. William Buford and David Lighty are athletic guards who can score and defend. Jon Diebler is a great shooter. The Buckeyes have 5 players who average double figures (including Deshaun Thomas who does so in under 20 minutes a game). Ohio State is the most balanced team in the Big 10 and has the best player. As such, they are the best team until someone proves otherwise.

5-minute Major [24 December 2010]

Important day for Ohio State; Foremost, the Buckeyes were not only prepared for for the mighty Golden Grizzlies, they beat them with the most balanced attack of the season; with the exception of Dallas Lauderdale, every Buckeye who played double-digit minutes score double-digit points; Also, 5 players were suspended from the OSU football team for the first 5 games of 2011; these players include Terelle Pryor and Dan Herron; OSU announced the violations resulting in the suspension revolved around players taking compentsation.....Wisconsin easily handled Coppin State 80-56.....The Utes followed up an embarrassing football night with an embarrassing basketball one, losing to Butler 74-62.....Despite Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly both missing on account of suspension, Rodney McGruder chipped in with 7 three's to help beat UMKC 80-64.....carry on.

Opining on Officials

I started writing this post last night and, fortunately, came to a timely realization. Do not post when angry. And I did not. I gave myself a nice cooling off period after the Illinois-Missouri game last night and now I am back.

Officials rarely determine the outcome of a game, and they did NOT determine the outcome of the Illinois game last night. Illinois played poorly, and Mike Tisdale committed an extremely boneheaded foul at the end of the game. The refs, however, made a game altering call late in the game that was a correct call within the literal interpretation of the rule but that was the absolute wrong call given the situation surrounding the call. For those readers who did not watch the Illinois-Missouri game last night, Illinois made a three with around 48 seconds left to cut the Missouri lead to 62-61. Missouri pushed the ball down court and had a wide open layup. Illinois center, Mike Tisdale, gave Laurence Bowers of Missouri a soft, two handed shove while Bowers was in the air. Bowers made the layup and the refs called an intentional foul on Tisdale. Two free throws and Missouri gets the ball back. At the end of the sequence, Missouri led 68-61 and the game was essentially over.

Now, Mike Tisdale's foul definitely falls within the parameters of what constitutes an intentional foul. But an intentional foul, like any other foul in basketball is not black and white. The refs have discretion to NOT call an intentional foul there. In fact, historically, the refs in basketball swallow their whistles inside of a minute in a close game. They tend to err on the side of not calling a foul in order to let the players decide the game. No one would have complained if no intentional foul was called there given the severity of the actual foul and the status of the game when the foul was committed. If the refs do not take the drastic step of calling an intentional foul, Bowers is on the line shooting one free throw up 64-61 and Illinois still faces an uphill battle to win the game.

In my mind, there is a sliding scale late in the game. The more blatant the foul, the more brutal the foul, the more likely you are to make a call that influences the ultimate outcome. In this case, in a close game with 40 seconds left, a soft two handed shove does not rise to the level of severity necessary to make a game altering call.

Another recent example of this comes immediately to mind. Kansas vs. UCLA on December 2, at Kansas in a game tied at 76 with nine-tenths of a second left, the refs called a foul sending Mario Little of Kansas to the line with a chance to win the game. Little was 18 feet from the basket and not remotely in a scoring position when the foul was called. The foul boiled down to little more than a loose ball foul. There would have been little reason for a Kansas fan to complain if the ref had swallowed his whistle there. Little made 1 of the 2 free throws and the game was over. The NCAA defended the call in the ensuing backlash saying that it was, in fact, a foul. While that might have been a literal foul under the rules, it did not rise to the level of severity that a foul deciding the ultimate result of the game needs to rise to. Again, the refs have the discretion to not make a game changing call there.

In the NHL playoffs, when games head into overtime, there are very, very few penalties called that are not horribly blatant. The refs do not want to be the story, they want the players to decide the ultimate outcome.

I like to think that if I were a Kansas fan on December 2 or a Missouri fan last night, I would have been happy within the win, but I would recognize that the refs made a game changing call that they did not have to make.

Refs and officials have horribly difficult jobs, and it is easy to second guess with the benefit of hindsight. But loosen the whistles at the end of a close game and let the players decide the ultimate outcome.

Murphy's Pub: Previewing Braggin' Rights

One of the more underrated rivalries in college basketball marks its 30th anniversary tonight when Illinois and Missouri tipoff in St. Louis. This is a game that, as a fan, gets me excited every single year. Braggin’ Rights means a national broadcast no matter how poor the teams are playing, it means Christmas is right around the corner, and, in years past, it meant that in the lead up to the game, ESPN Classic would be sure to air several of the classic games in the series (note, that is not the case this year).

As St. Louis sits directly on the Illinois-Missouri border, you can always count on a great crowd, split almost directly down the middle - orange to one side, black to the other. And the game very rarely disappoints. Who can forget Illinois freshman Kiwane Garris missing both free throws with no time left on the clock and a chance to win the game for the Illini (a game the Illini ultimately lost 108-107 in 3 overtimes, and still the classic game in the series). Kiwane Garris developed into one of the great point guards in Illinois history (and an all-time favorite of mine), but ask an Illinois fan about Kiwane, and that Missouri game is one of the first memories that spring to mind.

While the games are often close (3 games have been decided in overtime, and since 1992, 11 games have either gone into overtime or been decided 10 points or less - in 1995, Illinois won 96-85 in overtime), both schools have had sustained success in the series. Illinois won 9 of the first 10 games. Missouri then won 7 of the next 9. Illinois followed that by winning 9 in a row before the Missouri win last year. Over the life of the series, Illinois is 20-9.

As far as this year’s game is concerned, Missouri plays fast. They press, take shots early in the shot clock, and in general try to wear teams down. I watched Missouri lose to Georgetown 111-102 in overtime earlier this year and can say that Marcus Denmon is very, very good and will be a tough matchup for DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul (assuming Paul plays). Denmon averages just short of 17 points per game and is a 48% three point shooter. But the Tigers, surprisingly enough given the way they play, are not that deep. In the Georgetown game, each starter played at least 35 minutes and only two players provided meaningful minutes off the bench (in close wins against Vanderbilt and Oregon, Missouri had a more traditional box score with 8 or 9 players giving meaningful minutes).

The Illini are athletic enough, and deep enough, to play the tempo that Missouri will want to play (though the tempo will certainly not favor Mike Tisdale). The issue for Illinois will be their reliance on Demetri McCamey as ball handler. DJ Richardson turns the ball over too much, Brandon Paul is a shoot first guard, and Joseph Bertrand and Crandall Head have never seen the type of pressure defense that Missouri will throw at them. If the Illini can limit turnovers, they will have plenty of opportunities to attack the basket with numbers off the press and will put themselves in a great position to win tonight.

My thoughts: this game will be played in the 80s and will be another close game in this series. The Illini have something to prove after the ugly loss to UIC Saturday and both teams should be ready to play. If you like fast paced, high intensity college basketball, tonight’s game is must see TV.

5-minute Major [22 December 2010]

The UConn Women's basketball team has broken the NCAA win-streak record with 89, dismantling Florida State 93-62; anyone who isn't fascinated by this should have his head checked.....The Bulls embarrassed the identity-less Sixers by 45, holding all but two Philly players to single digit scoring.....Cincinnati dropped Miami-Ohio to go to 11-0.....The Wildcats are no longer perfect; Northwestern got dumped in the Holiday Festival by St. John's 85-69.....Perks of being a quarterback? NIU's DeMarcus Grady thinks one is playing basketball after dominating a bowl; the QB will join the Huskies basketball team for the rest of the season.....Iowa topped Louisiana Tech 77-58 and Iowa State almost doubled-up Chicago State 104-63.....Michigan State wide receiver, B.J. Cunningham will miss the Capital One Bowl with a broken foot suffered during practice.....at ease.

In Defense of the NCAA

In my time, I have been a staunch defender of many unpopular causes. The BCS, Rex Grossman (pre-Super Bowl), Brian Anderson as the White Sox center fielder, and the Scott Podsednik-Carlos Lee trade (until I threw in that last one, you were probably thinking I should have clarified that to say I am a staunch advocate of bad arguments) come to mind. Well, you can add the NCAA to that list. The reality of the situation is that the NCAA, enforcing all its rules, has one of the most difficult administrative tasks I could imagine (and there is very little hyperbole in that statement). In response to the post below (and what I imagine will be the lengthiest comment this site will ever receive), I argue that whether the NCAA allows member institutions to pay players is, in fact, largely irrelevant to the discussion of how to curb the ills in college sports, and that allowing athletes to be paid for advertising opens Pandora’s Box and removes the NCAA’s tenuous control over outside influences.

First of all, to limit the length and breadth of this post, I am limiting my analysis to the revenue sports: football and men’s basketball. Second, I believe that it is important to acknowledge the fact that most of the highly publicized debates relating to this subject focus on the top 1% of athletes in those sports. Marcus Dupree, Reggie Bush, Cam Newton, Derrick Rose, and Anthony Davis (the latter four of which I will discuss in greater detail later in this post) were all expected to be impact players and all became the focus of investigation and scandal. The vast majority of Division I athletes in the revenue sports are not even the subject of the debate. Those athletes are not worth millions of dollars in college, and those athletes are not just putting in their time until they make the jump to the next level. Third, football is a different animal than basketball. College is necessary for football players. There are no minor leagues, there are no leagues in Europe, and, most notably, there are very, very few impact Freshman in football because there is a physical difference between 18 year olds and 21 year olds. Finally, other than in this paragraph, I will not address the fact that colleges do pay athletes... directly. Tuition, room and board. Anyone that has attended college knows that when you move out of the dorms, expenses go down. When you receive the same amount from the school regardless of where you live, you end up with athletes living in cheap apartments and, legitimately, pocketing money every single month of their college careers. With those constraints in mind, here we go.

Whether or not the NCAA allows athletes to be paid is largely irrelevant. The NCAA claims to protect amateurism in their athletes, but as the years progress, the term amateur will continue to diminish in meaning. Rather, I see the role of the NCAA in the treatment of athletes and in recruiting as that of keeping a level playing field amongst its member institutions. If the NCAA ever allowed their schools to pay players, they would no doubt impose limits on how much money schools could pay to prevent any school from obtaining a competitive advantage. Say the NCAA had allowed Auburn or Mississippi State to pay Cam Newton $200,000.00. When have you ever heard someone say, “thank you for the money you have given me. Now that I have $200,000.00 I will not try to obtain further compensation elsewhere.” If you can receive $200,000.00 from Mississippi State, why not try to milk some more out of your asset, whether from the university directly or from a booster with deep pockets?

Maybe I am naive, but I do not believe that schools are paying players directly (not even at Kentucky) in the current environment. Anthony Davis’s father may very well have made it clear, as reported by the Chicago Sun-Times, that he was selling his son’s services to the highest bidder, but I cannot believe that, in this era, John Calipari would be dumb enough or desperate enough to actually take Mr. Davis up on that offer. The problems for schools arises when they turn a blind eye to obvious benefits. And that is the distinguishing factor between Cam Newton at Auburn and Reggie Bush at USC. Reggie Bush’s family actually received benefits and USC more or less looked the other way. Cam Newton’s father asked for benefits, but according to the NCAA investigation did not receive anything. The soliciting of benefits just means that Cam Newton’s father was an idiot. But the crux of the argument is this: letting schools pay athletes does nothing to diminish the role of outside influences over whom the NCAA has no control. Boosters, agents, the NCAA has little ability to punish them directly other than by punishing the school itself. The NCAA punishes the school when there is a perceived alteration in that competitive balance.

Allowing players to be paid for promotions, advertisements, etc. also leads to an uneven playing field. Oregon is a Nike school. Every time Nike releases a new special uniform, Oregon receives one. If Ernie Kent could have told potential recruits that, if they came to Oregon, and if they were successful, they would be able to make millions on the side in Nike advertising dollars while in school, Ernie Kent would not have been fired by Oregon last year because his school would have an immediate competitive advantage.

There are people who believe that advantage exists regardless. During the Derrick Rose recruitment, there were whispers that Rose would not attend Illinois because Illinois is a Nike school and Rose was going to an Adidas school. Type “college basketball recruiting shoe wars” into Google and you receive a litany of articles, including a 2005 article from ESPN, detailing the influence shoe companies exert over prep athletes. Legitimizing that influence allows it to trickle down from the top 1% to everyone.

So what is the fix? In college football, there is no perfect system. The universities should understand that their role is to make sure their athletes are not living beyond their means and if they willfully turn a blind eye, the NCAA only has the school to punish (see Reggie Bush). One easy rule that the NCAA could implement, in tandem with the NFL, is to de-certify agents that have improper contact with athletes, an idea championed by Nick Saban, and to prevent coaches like Pete Carroll from abandoning his school as imminent sanctions come down. The NCAA, however, cannot enact that alone. They need to partner with the NFL to enact any real, actual change.

In basketball, on the other hand, there are three potential fixes, two of which are reliant on the NCAA’s partnership with the NBA to make a reality: (1) drop the age limit for entry to the NBA; (2) enact the rules regulating eligibility for the Major League Baseball draft and apply them to basketball; and (3) create a viable minor league.

All three ideas can work in tandem. Major league baseball allows athletes to become eligible for the draft (1) after they graduate from high school; or (2) after completing their Junior year of college. The MLB creates an exception for Junior College and DIII players, but that is not relevant to this discussion. For example, Lebron James could still have gone straight to the NBA. That top 1%, the players that the shoe companies go to war over are no longer an issue.
Well, I can hear you say, the NBA has been down this road before and I can provide you with literally dozens of examples of players that jumped to the NBA too soon. But I am prepared for that argument. The NBA could easily have a viable minor league. The D-League is worthless. Not every team has a D-League affiliate and, with the exception of the occasional Terrence Williams or Hasheem Thabeet, no one of any relevance steps foot in the D-League. Here is the solution: extend the NBA draft. Add at least one round. Let NBA teams draft players straight out of high school who are not ready for the NBA and stash them in the minors. Some will develop like they would have in college. Some will not develop just like they would have in college. Then, you follow the minor league baseball model with D-League teams. Put a team in Peoria, Illinois and stack it with young talent and former Bradley and Illinois players who can still play and use that system to develop talent. The whole point is to create options for these players while maintaining the competitive balance between the schools.

At the end of the day, the status quo is as valid as any alternative. The status quo maintains competitive balance and minimizes, as best as possible, the influence of parties that the NCAA has no regulatory control over. The system is far from perfect, but so are all the alternatives. Fixing a broken system with an equally broken system is just a bad idea.

5-minute Major [21 December 2010]

Chicago fans rejoice: no matter what happens against the Jets next week, the Bears cannot lose the NFC North in Green Bay to end the season; Devin Hester set the NFL record for most career kickoff/punt returns for touchdowns (Hester scored the record-breaker on a 64-yard punt return, what seemed like just a few minutes after taking a kickoff to the 3 yard line).....The Illini dropped from 12th in the nation all the way to 21st after the UIC loss.....Terrell Owens is out for the season as he'll need surgery to repair cartilage in his knee.....After weathering a 6-0 St. Francis run to start the game, Northwestern pounded the Terriers 92-61 in Madison Square Garden;  don't forget Drew Crawford who woke up i a big way with 25-9-8.....The Lions announced Drew Stanton has a separated shoulder (non-throwing side), but Jim Schwartz decided not to pick a starting QB for this Sunday.....A real, live Crash Davis has been appointed to manage the White Sox Bristol, Va. affiliate; Pete Rose, Jr. (yup, son of that Pete Rose) spent 21 years in the minors as a player.....The Curse of LeBron's Homecoming continues as the Cavs dropped their 11th of the last 12 to the Jazz.....After an MRI, it's bad news for the Bucks' Brandon Jennings: broken left foot, out 4-6 weeks.....Niklas Backstrom looked good, stopping 34 of 35 as the Wild topped the Flames 4-1.....Guess who signed a deal to write 3 books about his life: Ryan Leaf.....at ease.

Were the Royals too close to nearing almost legitimacy?

"So long, suckers..."

In a stunning sneak-attack , the Brewers became the team most likely to land Kansas City ace, Zack Greinke, by actually trading for him.  The deal makes my stomach turn a little, and not because the 2009 AL Cy Young winner will now be in my team's division, but because of the way this all happened.  I am almost always against a team trading its best player, but in baseball, you can't have Kobe Bryant and then wait for a Pau Gasol.  So, Dayton Moore could have done this and been forgiven.  In fact, Moore could have done this and been applauded.  But, by and large, this move was a whiff.

You see, KC fans had to realize what the GM was up against.  First and foremost, Greinke asked for a trade.  I will never understand why GMs will ever keep a player who asks for a trade, or fans that want them to.  In my mind, as a fan, not only do I take a little parochial offense to such a request, but I also recognize the poor business of keeping disgruntled players.  Take two seconds to think and I guarantee you'll come up with a player who wanted off of a team toward the end of his contract, the team kept him (usually in some staring-contest equivalent between the player and GM), the player quits (or at least seems to), his trade value plummets, and inevitably the original team got nothing for him and couldn't re-sign him (obviously).  Dayton Moore could have easily done what I've wanted a manger to do forever: be totally public about it and include the player.  Within five minutes of the call from Greinke's agent asking for the trade, you call the newspaper and tell them: Zack Greinke no longer wants to be a part of the Royals organization, and we're not in the business of forcing people to stay on our team; we have told Zack's agent that we want to work with him, but will not take diminished value; therefore, Zack is well aware that he will be showcased with each start until we can get the value back we think he has; we wish him luck.  Why can't he do that?  Because fan bases tend to see letting a star walk as management giving up on the team.  In reality, that would be the clearest example of a GM's attempt to stop the team's foundering.  Secondly, Greinke had a no-trade clause to 15 teams.  This meant that Moore not only had to find a suitor, but to find one in a subset of the league.

So, surely, the Royals' GM had some leeway.  But, he managed still to be a villain.  The final tally was: Royals-Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers-Zack Greinke, Yuniesky Betancourt, and $2 million.  Here's how that breaks down.  Escobar and Betancourt are as close to a wash as you can get (Escobar is a few years younger, with a lot less pop, slightly better defense, and an identical .288 OBP).  According to Baseball America, Odorizzi and Jeffress are the numbers 1 and 3 prospects respectively in the Brewers farm system.  Odorizzi's former pitching coach with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers described him this way in July of this year, "...he's like a Zack Greinke to me."  So, let's say, for the sake of a ludicrous argument, that we can equate Odorizzi to the Cy Young winner.  That leaves us with $2 million dollars for Jefress and Cain.  Jefress was the Brewers' first-round draft pick in 2006 and has been shuffled up and down the farm.  He seems to excel at Single A ball, get hammered in Double A, and he did pitch exactly one inning in the bigs last year (it was scoreless).  The fact that Jefress was the Brewers' number 3 prospect says less about Jefress's talent than it does about the Brewers farm system.  Lorenzo Cain, though, is a Stud, and just what the doctor ordered for KC in terms of speed (offensively and defensively) and OBP (about .400 in AA and AAA).

And that $2 million purchase seems to make Moore out to be pretty darn smart.  You get a one-time first-rounder to sit on in case he finds "it," and a hustle guy that could be major-league ready out of Spring Training.  But, there are two hang-ups.  One, that ludicrous argument earlier.  Odorizzi has never thrown a pitch at the major league level.  There is no way to equate him to Greinke, no matter what his Single-A coach says.  But, maybe that's even fine.  The Royals sure weren't going to be contenders in the next 3 years anyway (and maybe never as long as Ron Gardenhire exists).  What's truly disappointing about this move is the failure to apply pressure to a club that came out of nowhere.  It's almost as if the Brewers just tricked Moore with unexpectedness.  We're talking about a Cy Young winner who's a household name despite playing for the Royals.  At the very least, you can keep your $2 million and Betancourt, right?  Brewers' GM Doug Melvin really stuck it to Dayton Moore in this one.  It's almost as if he demanded the shortstop and cash just to prove Moore was out of his league (as if the Cabrera and Francouer signings weren't enough).

With so much grace, Moore should've aimed higher and pushed harder.  If he hadn't gotten a deal done, he could've told KC fans that there was no way this proud organization was giving up one of its best pitching talents since Bret Saberhagen without an amazing package of players.  But, he didn't.  He got scared of getting nothing and took the first multi-first-rounder package he saw.  At least Matt Cassel's back, KC.

5-minute Major [20 December 2010]

The Colts once again took the AFC South from the Jaguars, although Austin Collie sustained another concussion in the 34-24 win.....The Pacers couldn't stop the Celtics from winning their 13th in a row, as Paul Pierce recorded his 7th career triple-double.....Green Bay will be watching the Bears-Vikings game on Monday Night Football very closely; despite an unexpectedly good day from Aaron Rodgers's fill-in Matt Flynn, the Packers fell to New England 31-27, and only a Bears loss tomorrow night will make the season finale at Lambeau Field a battle for the NFC North crown.....Zack Greinke was finally traded to dark horse dealer Milwaukee; Greinke was packaged with Yuniesky Betancourt for Alcides Escobar and 3 prospects.....Welcome back, Matt Cassel; the Chiefs still control their AFC West destiny after beating up on the Rams 27-13.....Is it time for the Browns to consider requesting a schedule filled only with the NFL's best teams?  Cleveland did their best to match the Woeful Bengals and lost 17-19.....The Bearcats are hoping a hard-fought win against Oklahoma will finally get them into the rankings at 10-0.....Odd to close this with the biggest story of the day, but it's east coast, so it can't lead: the UConn Women's basketball team beat Ohio State to win their record-tying 88th game in a row.....carry on.

5-minute Major [19 December 2010]

As written in the post below, the 12th-ranked Illini lost 57-54 to the UIC Flames; Lesson: never sleep on a team that has a point guard named Robo Kreps.....In further Illinois charity news, the football Illini's confidence boosting loss to Fresno State (confidence boosting for the latter) played right into Northern Illinois's hands as they crushed the Bulldogs 40-17 in the Humanitarian Bowl.....Meanwhile, Missouri kept up their end of making the Braggin' Rights game more exciting, defeating Central Arkansas 116-63.....6th-ranked Kansas State was beaten badly 57-44 by a Florida team that's proving difficult to grade..... Michigan State nearly doubled Prairie View A&M's total (90-51) behind a 25-point night for Durrell Summers.....The Oakland Grizzlies saga is heating up; the Major has made several not-so-subtle allusions to his belief that Ohio State will fall to Oakland in their clash this Christmas Eve-Eve; all hopes were nearly dashed when the Grizzlies toppled #7 Tennessee, but tonight's convincing loss to Michigan 69-51 may lull the Buckeyes back into underestimation.....However, Jared Sullinger looked unbelivable again posting 30/11 in a win over South Carolina.....The first 10 points of the second half were all scored by Butler's Matt Howard whose 27 led the Bulldogs over Stanford 83-50.....Milwaukee played tough, but fell to Utah 95-86 late under Deron William's double-double.....Who would've thought a win against the Knicks this season would be considered marquee?  Cavs 109-Knicks 102......Despite a 17-point 4th quarter from Kevin Love, the Wolves couldn't complete the comeback and lost to the Nuggets 115-113.....at ease.

Murphy's Pub: Ranting About the Loss to UIC

I had several ideas today. I was going to write a "Counterpoint" to the well written NCAA post below. I was going to profile Illinois' Sophomore guards (after focusing on them while watching the Illini play UIC). Instead, Illinois loses to UIC 57-54. Given the loss, I decided to do what I would have done in college following a bad Illinois loss: head down to Murphy's Pub for a drink and some ranting.

Those that know me, I hope, will be able to vouch for the fact that I do not put losses on the coaching staff very often. And certainly Bruce Weber did not shoot 32% from the floor today. But when Illinois took a 49-41 lead with 7:32 to play, I was sure that the Illini had weathered the storm and that the game was over. Then, Illinois went through an offensive drought while UIC chipped away.

I like Bruce Weber. I think he is a great defensive teacher, and when his offense is run properly, it is a beautiful thing to watch. Weber has a couple traits that kill me though. The first is that he tends to take the air out of the basketball late in games when he has a lead. The second is that he is a "tinkerer." He over manages in game. Now, I do not think that the former was the issue today (and as I angrily deleted the game from my DVR immediately after the final whistle, I could not prove that point in any event), but the latter was. Two instances in the last thirty seconds of the game prove this point.

The first instance was the play drawn up out of the timeout down 55-54 with 22 seconds left. Illinois ran DJ Richardson off several screens for a three pointer. I like DJ, he is a reliable shooter with one notable exception. He runs so hard on the defensive end all game that he never seems to have his legs with three minutes or less left in games. Honestly, it seems like DJ shoots about 10% at the end of games. But Illinois runs DJ off screens, he gets a decent look at the three, and he misses. Weber needs to recognize his personnel better in that situation and get a better shot coming out of the timeout... or at the very least put the ball in your best player's hands.

The second instance, however, is a bigger problem and a better example of over managing. With three seconds left, Darrin Williams is at the line for UIC with UIC up 1. He makes the first, misses the second, and Illinois immediately calls timeout. Coming out of the timeout, they try to inbound the ball to McCamey at midcourt. McCamey steps out of bounds and turns the ball over.

Now I have watched a lot of college basketball in my day, and I can tell you that three seconds left in the game is more than enough time to get the ball the length of the floor for a good look. There are two important factors that come into play though: (1) don't let the defense get set up and (2) whoever is going to take the final shot needs to catch the ball going forward so that no time is wasted. Otherwise, you are counting on a Christian Laettner miracle.

Here is where Weber made a mistake. He needed to take the timeout before the second free throw. He could have told his rebounders to find McCamey on the outlet off a miss or a make and McCamey has the ball going forward while UIC's defense is scrambling.

Instead, Weber uses a timeout. UIC has their defense set, and Illinois has to inbound catching the ball, under their own basket, with momentum off the pass taking them away from the basket. In this situation, you need to trust your players to make the right play and win the game.

Look, this loss is not all on Weber. Illinois, from top to bottom played terrible and UIC, to their credit, did not quit when they went down 8 late in the second half. But Weber did not put his team in a position to win when the game was on the line. Hopefully this is a learning experience for the Illini, from the coaching staff on down and Illinois will put this loss behind them with a win in St. Louis Wednesday night.

5-minute Major [18 December 2010]

Well done everyone.  Big Ten Commissioner, Jim Delaney, announced today that the conference may reconsider the names of their new divisions; Delaney suggested there was a 90% disapproval rating.....Corey Crawford looked substantially better in Chicago against the Red Wings, turning away 29 of 30 shots in a 4-1 Blackhawks winner.....The Hoosiers pounded SIU-Edwardsville 88-54 to stay perfect at home; the only reason this game is notable is because it took SIU-Edwardsville nearly 9 minutes to score their first points; by then, they already trailed 24-0.....Spartans Coach, Tom Izzo, will be suspended for Michigan State's next game for a "secondary rules violation;"  In this case, that means the MSU basketball program employed an "individual associated with a prospect" as a counselor at a boys' basketball camp; sheesh.....The Clippers dominated the Pistons 109-88 behind on the strength of Blake Griffin's 24/17.....In Indy, it was Danny Granger's day; he had 30/12 in a 108-99 Pacers win over the Cavs.....There's still pitching to be had for those who want it; Zack Greinke fired his agent and hired a new one, further indicating he still wants to be traded.....Timberwolves lost, again.....at ease.

5-minute Major [17 December 2010]

Bob "Rapid Robert" Feller died early Thursday morning of acute lukemia; Feller won 266 games, threw the only Opening Day no-hitter, led his league in strikeouts 7 times, and was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1962; But, perhaps his most impressive stat was throwing 12 one-hitters, a record he shares with Nolan Ryan; Feller was 92.....The Cubs should have a solid 7,8,9 if they can ever bring a lead into those innings; Kerry Wood agreed to a 1-year deal with the Cubs for a mere $1.5 million; as far as team loyalty goes, the Cubs have not seen it like this since Mark Grace.....On the other side of town, the White Sox will try out Chris Sale next year as Bobby Jenks dons red socks instead (the deal is estimated at 2yrs/$12million).....Magglio Ordonez took $10 million for one more year with Detroit.....Don't bother driving up to Minneapolis for the Monday Night Football match-up between the Bears and Vikings -- sources say that the University of Minnesota stadium where the game will be held can't even hold everyone with tickets to the game.....The lowly Wild fell to the lowly Senators 3-1; at one point, Kyle Brodziak put the Wild up 2-1, but the goal was waved off, and Nick Foligno gave the Senators a 2-1 9 seconds into the power play.....It looked like the Blues and Kings were headed to a 4-4 overtime when Alex Steen netted one with 2:53 remaining in the game; the Blues also added an empty-netter to win 6-4.....The Bengals-Browns game will be blacked out this Sunday; it's the first time the game hasn't sold out in 30 years.....carry on.

On Recruiting Violations and Staying In School

Cam Newton was cleared.  Let's just get that out of the way right now.  I don't even care what his dad did, really.  In fact, the only reason I even mention the Heisman winner is because, at one time, a lot of people (including the FBI) thought he might have been in Auburn because someone promised him something they shouldn't have.  And it was made bigger because he was the leader of an undefeated team.  Even bigger still because this time it wasn't a nicer apartment or car, but $200,000.


The sky-high profile of this allegation meant that everybody on television, everybody on the radio, everybody in the newspapers wanted to throw their thoughts in the ring.  And what we learned was two-fold.  First, people are near unanimous that big-time violations deserve big-time consequences.  I'm sure there was a contrarian out there somewhere, but by and large people felt a suspension or expulsion was appropriate if the allegations proved true.  Second, people are the opposite of unanimous on what should be considered a big-time violation.

It seems a whole lot of people are of the opinion that "universities are making money hand over fist off these kids, why should the kids get something out of it?"  It's easy to see the merit in this.  At a certain level, making millions off student athletes who hardly see a dime seems a little like baseball before free agency.  But, there was no level above the Majors for ballplayers to dump their clubs to pursue.  The college athlete often leaves as soon as he has the opportunity to go where he wants in the draft.  What we're left with are schools that make as much money as possible off of athletes who try to leave college as soon as they can.  You could ask which came first, but it's unlikely that colleges would start paying athletes even if athletes would always stay for four years.  So, the question becomes whether athletes would stay four years if they were paid.

The safest bet is no, they wouldn't.  $200,000 might be possible for the number one guy, the one that everybody wants, but not as a baseline.  Even if schools could justify shelling out this amount on each of their starters, it would never be enough to actually keep anybody that was already planning on leaving.  Since 2000, almost 75% of NCAA All-Americans in football stay on to graduate (there seems to be some bias towards juniors and seniors for these awards, so it may need to be discounted, but probably not significantly).  At the same time, over 66% of NFL Draft first-rounders left college without a degree.  The point is, really good players actually do stay in college.  And rare talent types are going to get millions for signing, meaning they wouldn't stay even for the money.

So, why not let schools pay?  The argument that the NCAA should be about student athletes in the truest sense of the term should be out because the superstars are going to leave as soon as it makes sense.  It's not really in line with the goal to have a bunch of college juniors.  The ideal is college graduates.  All of this doesn't even begin to take into account the rampant "assistance" athletes get at many schools with their classes.  A salary might be one component that takes away from the student athlete, but it's hardly the only detractor.  Another argument is that a bidding war between colleges would favor the already giants to the disadvantage of the smaller schools.  But, this whole scandal revolved around Auburn, not Notre Dame.  And no one at Mississippi State made it sound like they couldn't afford Cecil Newton's asking price for his son, but that paying would violate rules.  Believe it or not, most Division I schools could put up that kind of cash for a one-man team like Cam Newton, especially when one considers the return on investment if the team makes a bowl.

If the NCAA allowed schools to pay up to $200,000 for up to 5 players, schools could begin to sell athletes on benefits outside athletic programs.  This does little to stop cheater schools (outside of raising the required price to a level that would be less affordable), but lessens the incentive for athletes to choose them.  A student who chooses to attend a cheater school for $200,000 over another school he really likes but would pay him nothing, may not make the same choice if the numbers were $300,000 vs. $200,000.  This would also encourage athletes to stay in school if they have concerns about supporting their families back home.  They may still jump ship if they're likely to be picked in the top 15, but at least there is a decision to be made.

It is good to see that people fall so squarely on the line when it comes to punishments for violations.  But, maybe so many voices raised against restrictions mean that those acts shouldn't be violations after all.

Murphy's Pub: Illinois Recruiting Update

Edition 2 of Murphy's Pub

Devin Langford will reportedly round out the 2010 Illinois recruiting class. Langford is a 6'6" guard from Alabama and, well, I have never seen him play so I cannot even begin to comment on Langford as a player. Instead, I am going to write about the historical importance of this recruiting class for the Illini. Every few years, dating back to 2002 at least, the Illini have had an unbalanced recruiting class that has formed the back bone of their teams for the next four years. And here is the thing with an unbalanced class: when you only have 12 scholarships, giving 5 or more in a single year is committing a lot of resources to one single class.

2002
In 2002, Illinois landed a 5 man class: Deron Williams, Dee Brown, James Augustine, Kyle Wilson, and Aaron Spears. Dee, Deron, and Augustine were starters for their entire careers, joining Luther Head and Roger Powell (a two man class the year before) in going to the '05 National Championship game. Kyle Wilson (from Texas) had anxiety issues and ended up transferring to Wichita State (where he became a pretty good player on some good teams). Aaron Spears ended up transferring to St. Johns (as an aside, I will always remember Spears for being a 6'10" guy riding the tiniest of bikes around Champaign-Urbana - he looked ridiculously hilarious).

Dee was the highest rated in the class, and a McDonald's All-American. Deron was a top 50 player (Bob Gibbons rated him much higher, but Deron was rated lower than his high school teammate Bracey Wright). Augustine was a top 75 guy and Spears and Wilson were borderline top 100. The class ended up having one All-Time great (Deron) and two players in Dee and
Deron that weren't far behind.

2007
Fast forward 5 years to 2007 and Bruce Weber landed a 6 man class. Demetri McCamey, Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis, Bill Cole, Quinton Watkins, and Rodney Alexander (Junior College). Watkins never qualified and Rodney Alexander never was anything more than a role player in his two years on campus. McCamey was a top 75 recruit, but he was really the only top 100 guy in 2007.

The 2007 class will ultimately be remembered by their success this season. McCamey, Davis and Tisdale have been starters for three years and Cole has been a valuable reserve (even though he has started, he has never played starter's minutes). BUT during their first three years, Illinois (1) missed the tournament (even the NIT); (2) lost to Western Kentucky in the first round; and (3) made the NIT. McCamey has turned the corner this year (knock on wood) and could become an All-Time Great at Illinois. Plus, this class, until 2009, was easily the best class in Bruce Weber's time at Illinois. Through no real fault of Tisdale and Davis (and anyone that has watched Illinois games with me knows I am not going to be starting any Mike Davis fan clubs), there was not a whole lot of talent surrounding this class, so it is hard to consider their record as too much of a black eye. With that being said, history will remember the 2007 class in a much more favorable light if they make the Sweet 16 this year.

So based on the above, what can we hope for out of Tracy Abrams, Mychael Henry, Nnanna Egwu, Mike Shaw and Langford (other than the fact that there are some weird name spellings)? Well, if history is any guide:

(1) A star will emerge. Deron emerged his Sophomore year and took it to another level his Junior year. McCamey emerged his Junior year and has been unreal thus far this year.

(2) Not everyone is going to be a star. In fact, not everyone will graduate the university. Wilson and Spears in '02. Quinton Watkins did not even make it into a game.

(3) This class will be the backbone, for better or worse, of the next several years of Illinois basketball.

So congratulations to Bruce Weber on a very good 2011 class. Here is hoping they have a lot of amazing seasons of college basketball in them for the Illini.

5-minute Major [15 December 2010]

With no way to fix the collapsed dome, the Vikings announced today that they will use the new University of Minnesota football stadium to host the Bears next Monday.....The Bearcats will likely have to continue their quest to gain respect and get ranked; Cincinnati dismantled Georgia Southern 99-54.....It's like they always say: if you can't get Cliff Lee, hurry up and snag former-Cub Mark Prior; well done Brain Cashman.....The Bulls are falling apart, even though you'd never know it; Derrick Rose is battling a sprained wrist among other ailments, and Joakim Noah has bruised tendons in his hand, yet both are scheduled to play Wednesday against the Raptors.....Hobbserver must revise it's earlier prediction that the Oakland University Grizzlies would be the team that exposes Ohio State as less-than-a-2-seed; the Grizzlies topped #7 Tennessee and won't go unnoticed anymore.....The oft-forgotten, but still just as reliable as ever Richard Hamilton put in 24 to help the Pistons destroy the Hawks 103-80.....at ease.

5-minute Major [14 December 2010]

Hobbserver leaves the comfy confines of the Breadbasket to bring you news of the ridiculous: Cliff Lee will apparently sign a 5yr/$100 million contract with, you guessed it, the Phillies.  You didn't guess that?.....Bulls ran it to six in a row against the Pacers 92-73 behind Carlos Boozer's 22/18 and Derrick Rose's 12 assists.....The Blackhawks need a goalie, badly; they lost 7-5 to the Avalanche.....Luckily for the Hawks, the Red Wings got beaten a lot worse, losing 5-0 to the Kings.....Let the lopsides continue!  Vikings dominated 21-3 by the Giants in Detroit in the game that broke Brett Favre's consecutive starts streak.....The Mavericks saw their winning streak stopped at 12 by the Bucks of all teams, led by Andrew Bogut's 24/10.....The Badgers got an expected 70-56 win over UW-Green Bay, but it was behind an unexpected career-high 18 for sophomore Mike Bruesewitz.....Kirk Ferentz, what the heck is going on?  The Iowa coach announced you can add running backs Jewel Hampton and Adam Robinson to the scratch list for the Insight Bowl.  Hampton will transfer (just like third running back Brandon Wegher announced he would do on Friday) and Robinson has been suspended by the team for unspecified infractions (much like wide out Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who was suspended for being arrested on numerous drug counts).....at ease.

The Day After the Debacle

The Bears were trounced yesterday by the Patriots. Trounced may not actually be a severe enough word. Let me put it this way, at halftime I went outside to shovel snow. I returned to the second half of... Jets-Dolphins. That's right, in Indianapolis, CBS made the decision that the Bears game was too far out of hand and too boring to continue to broadcast (a fate usually reserved for 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament). And it is with that indignity in mind that I take time to reflect on Sunday's game, and the state of the Bears going forward.

I have not known what to make of this Bears team all year. And honestly, I still have no idea what to make of them. The Bears ran into a buzzsaw Sunday, but the Patriots put the Jets through that same buzzsaw Monday night. The sad reality is that the Bears are built to be a dome team and the Patriots were a matchup nightmare.

The Bears defense is fast and their success ultimately depends on their ability to get to the quarterback. Against the Eagles and Mike Vick's 15 step drops, Julius Peppers and the rest of the defensive line were able to utilize their speed to make Vick uncomfortable. The Patriots, on the other hand, spread the Bears out and Brady releases the ball so quickly that it minimizes an effective pass rush.

The offense is clearly the Bears' weak spot. Cutler is a strong weapon because he can make every and any throw (so long as he can stay out of his own way and avoid turning the ball over). The offensive philosophy, however, is that of a finesse team. And in December, in the snow, that is a recipe for disaster against a team as good as the Patriots.

So where does that leave the Bears? Surprisingly enough, yesterday was a good day for the Bears playoff hopes. The Packers dropped a critical division game to the Lions. That means that if the Bears beat the Vikings at Mall of America Field Monday night, the Bears hold the tiebreaker. The demise of the Metrodome also means that the Bears will avoid one of the loudest and most hostile venues they could play in this season. The Bears play at Minnesota and host a suddenly vulnerable Jets team in Week 16 ahead of the Week 17 clash in Lambeau (a game that is meaningless if the Bears take care of business in Weeks 15 and 16). The Packers, on the other hand, travel to New England (possibly without Aaron Rodgers) and then host the Giants. Thus, the Bears are still in the driver's seat in the division.

I am all too aware of the Bears limitations, and I have no delusions of Super Bowl glory, but after three seasons without a trip to the playoffs, a January with the Bears would make for a nice change of pace.

The Big Ten's Answer to the Piston's Turquoise Horse Jersey

The Big Ten finally unveiled the new division names and logo (as well as some new awards).  And what did we get for waiting?  Sad.  Drawing on probably the same inspiration the Pistons' front office did when it gave us the logo pictured here, the Big Ten decided to call the new divisions...Leaders and Legends.  I assume the same logic because I imagine the Pistons thought, "Hey, what's hot right now?  Oh, turquoise is huge and shadowy horses are popping up on t-shirts everywhere."  And that the Big Ten thought, "Hey, what's hot right now?  Oh, words that sound sort of patriotic and that might throw regular people off the scent that college now costs a fortune and doesn't come close to guaranteeing a job.  Oh, and nods to the past.  You know, back when college was expensive but reasonable, and it almost guaranteed a decent living."  And it seems likely that these new names will be the next Jacksonville Jaguars in the hearts of fans.

Here's why it makes me sad.  I don't think the job was easy.  You couldn't use directions like the rest of the split conferences because there was no east-west or north-south line.  And you couldn't do a junior/senior thing, pitting the original 6 old Western Conference teams against the most recent 6, because the divisions, mind-blowingly, weren't set up that way. (PLEASE: Can anyone explain why the divisions weren't split this way?  If the argument was for competitive balance, I think Western Conference original 6--Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, and Northwestern-- versus the newer 6--the rest--would've been plenty balanced.)  So, it was going to be a tricky proposition from jump.  But, instead of really digging into the history of the conference, and finding something awesome, they rolled over and said, "Well, we have history, and we're frontrunners on some stuff," and then went like a quarter-step further than calling the divisions History and Frontrunners.

Then they blew it AGAIN on the new logo.  There may never be a logo as clever as the hidden 11 in the old Big Ten logo, so, again they were fighting an uphill battle.  But, please click here to see the new one and come back.  I'll wait.  Did you see it?  The 1G?  According to the Big Ten, the idea behind the B1G TEN logo is that the "1G" resembles a "10," paying homage to the original ten members.  Doesn't the "TEN" do that!  It's like nobody told these guys that the conference wasn't changing its name to the Big Twelve (in which case the hidden "10" could've been brilliant).

Also, how mad is Legend's bar in Champaign right now (Hint: the Illini are in the Leaders division)?  I'm betting quite to very....

Bulls are accidental Tigers

Between the first and second quarters of the Bulls' Friday night win over the Lakers in the UC, Phil Jackson was interviewed by one of the ESPN reporters.  When asked how he felt about his team's 22-12 lead, Jackson replied, "It should've been a 30-point quarter."  He was referring to what ought to be a result of the terrific defense the Lakers played in the first quarter.  The point of this is to highlight how good a defense the Bulls overcame.  And it wasn't because the Lakers took plays off, or even failed to adapt.  It had a little to do with the Bulls defending the paint better, and a lot to do with the Bulls running an offense that was too dynamic to adapt to.  Or, perhaps falling into that offense accidentally.

Those of you familiar with the Princeton offense might think I'm crazy when I suggest that it was exactly what the Bulls ran from the second quarter on (excepting those plays termed the Derrick Rose Show).  The plays were not slowed down to mitigate the fact that the Lakers are the superior athletic team (they certainly are not, outside Shannon Brown).  The ball was not run through the center in the post to begin every offensive possession.  And there weren't a whole lot of down screens on the block.  Then what, if anything, would make me say that the offense even resembled Princeton?  In one, hyphenated word: back-door.  In two, unhyphenated: kick outs.  In more: read on.

The Princeton offense came to be exactly as you'd expect.  Coach Franklin "Cappy" Cappon realized that the one advantage he had in almost every game was ridiculously smart kids.  He also knew the most cerebral part of basketball defense is switching assignments.  The logical step then is a dump truck full of motion.  Set tons of screens, rely on players to outsmart their defenders to open spots on the floor, whether streaking to the basket, or jumping out towards the perimeter.  It's usually a slow offense because better athletes take longer to break down.  But, this Bulls team is made up mostly of athletic freaks, so it only takes two or three clever moves.  And the Bulls kept making them.  But, it wasn't clear that they were actually running an offense.

What it looked like more often was one of those pickup games where you miraculously end up on a team of complements.  Where you're setting screens and people are using them and looking for you to roll.  Where you run baseline and somebody finds you in the corner.  The point guard isn't holding up a fist telling you what play to run, but you're all just moving so much, and being so unselfish that your team can't really lose.  The best example was a play towards the end of the game, right after Derrick Fisher hit a big three from the corner, and wore that "I expected that" expression that just looks ridiculous on the face of a player with his credentials.  He tried to back up on D like he was really going to lock down Derrick Rose.  But, two Derricks enter, only one leaves.  Joakim Noah set a solid high screen, that Fisher ran into and tried to recover, but Rose had already run screen side, and come back around to pass Fisher running the other way.  Rose drained a wide open jumper.  This might seem like individual achievement, and I don't want to take anything away from Rose's great move or Noah's wall of a screen.  But, watch the play and you'll see how the spot on the floor from which Rose took the shot got open. Luol Deng (an underrated 3-point shooter) kept his defender pinned in the corner, Carlos Boozer kept his stuck on the baseline off the opposite block, and Kyle Korver (the biggest threat from deep) sprinted towards the Boozer-side corner.  Like the T-Rex, the athlete's vision is usually based on movement, meaning every defender started cheating to the side where Korver sprinted and Rose stepped.  End result, wide open game-icer.  These are the types of shots the Princeton offense makes its objective.

So, the question of whether the Bulls should run Princeton is more or less answered by the result against the Lakers.  Whether they can falls to one player: Carlos Boozer.  Princeton requires a strong post player with good vision and decent passing.  It flourishes when that big man is a good shooter to 18 feet and can handle the ball better than his defender can defend.  Boozer has all of these skills, and is a natural fit.  The Bulls have been successful letting Rose just take over when things are getting out of hand, and as slow starters, this happens frequently.  But, if they can start trying to run the offense through Boozer on the elbow, instead of accidentally getting there, they could be a top-three offense.  There was a stretch in this game where the Bulls ran the offense this way, and it resulted in the Bulls taking their first lead.  Pau Gasol is a premier big man with much improved defense and Boozer first stepped him to death.  When help came on his drive, Boozer found a wide open Korver or Rose outside or Noah on the block.

I know the Bulls paid Boozer to establish a post game they were lacking.  But, after watching what can happen on accident, it seems like a good idea to let the Duke graduate run an offense for smart guys with a team of athletes.

5-minute Major [13 December 2010]

The Bears might've been able to blame the weather for their 7 points, if the Patriots hadn't scored 36 (all but a field goal were scored in the first half).....Luckily for Chicago, the Packers also dumped to the Lions 7-3, the loss made worse by Aaron Rodgers's exit with a concussion.....The Illini looked terrible defending the perimeter, but shot well enough from it to beat Northern Colorado 86-76; at least Illinois looked better than it did against Oakland (a team this author suspects might expose Ohio State, who beat Western Carolina handily).....Carson Palmer threw for 236 yards and 3 TDs; one of those TDs and 178 of those yards were even to Bengals receivers!  Bengals lose 23-7 to the Steelers.....Vikings/Giants has been moved to Ford Field on Monday Night after the Metrodome roof caved in.....The Cardinals traded shortstop Brendan Ryan to the Mariners for what appears to be a bag of balls in pitcher Maikel Cleto who managed an ERA of 7.91 in six AFL starts; anyone want to bet Dave Duncan can't turn him around if he gets the chance?  Anyone?.....We TOLD you not to start Brodie Croyle; Chargers blanked Chiefs 31-0 (Oh, you also shouldn't have started Jamaal Charles; forgot to mention that the other day).....The Browns fumbled 5 times in a 13-6 loss to the Bills.....Kevin Durant put in a 25/7 night, despite playing only 30 minutes, to lead the Thunder past the Cavs 106-77.....The Wild had no answer for Corey Perry, who headlined the Ducks' 6-2 win with 3G/2A.....The Rams went quietly against the Saints 31-13; Saint's Opening Day backup safety Malcolm Jenkins returned his first pick-6 97 yards.....at ease.

Stuart Holden's Beautiful Goal

Most of you reading this are probably thinking, "Why is a blog that claims to be about Midwest Sports including a post about soccer in England?" Well, I like soccer. And this goal is awesome. And you are just going to have to deal with soccer posts as they relate to the American national team.

Stuart Holden, U.S midfielder, and starting midfielder at Bolton in the Barclay's Premier League in England scored a fantastic game winner this morning. The video of the goal is courtesy of the soccer blog Yanks Abroad.

5-minute Major [11 december 2010]

Derrick Rose wrote the next chapter of his book Why Scoring Point Guards Are Still OK as he went for 29 points in the Bulls first win over the Lakers since Rose was still in high school; he added 9 assists for anyone who didn't want to read it.....Scott Christopherson went nuts, shooting 7-12 from three, and pretty much single-handedly led the Cyclones past the Hawkeyes 75-72 in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.....As if we didn't love him enough already, Mark Buehrle reportedly paid the $2,400 vet bill for a dog shot with an arrow near where Buehrle grew up in Alton, Illinois; apparently, all it took was hearing the family couldn't pay the bill.....The Red Wings snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Canadiens and seemingly indomitable goalie Casey Price.....Double-double for Darius Morris (19/9assists) in the Golden Gophers' win over Utah.....In other Gophers news, goalie Kent Patterson saved 37 in a win over #2 Minnesota-Duluth.....Rip Hamilton continues to elude praise playing for an awful Pistons team, despite playing like Rip Hamilton with 26 points in a loss to Minnesota.....Who knew the Zips were so good at soccer? (Probably a bunch of people in Akron) They beat Michigan in the Men's Soccer National Semi-Final, 2-1; Zips vs. Louisville on Sunday for the Championship.....Hobbserver favorite Brandon Rush dropped 16 AGAIN in a 100-92 Pacers' win over the Bobcats; how long before Mike Dunleavy loses the starting job?.....The Brewers have joined the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, presumably because they have so many mediocre, low-OBP outfielders that the Royals will likely be interested in; if only they could also give them one-year contracts!.....Speaking of which!  The Royals confirmed signing Melky Cabrera (proud owner of a .317 OBP in 2010) to a, wait for it, 1-year/$1.25million deal.....Brett Favre handed the ball off twice at practice today, yawn.....The Chiefs still have not ruled Matt Cassell out for Sunday's game, but Fantasy advice remains the same: don't start Brodie Croyle.....carry on.

My Friday Night NBA 1.5 Header

With the Fiancee out of town for the weekend, and a Friday slate of NBA games including the Pacers-Bobcats at 7, and the Bulls-Lakers at 8, I sat in front of the TV with a 6 pack of Breckenridge Christmas Ale, and the knowledge that my Saturday morning 5k was not going to be fun (23:51 and lots of morning after drinking regret). Thoughts on the games:

Pacers-Bobcats

I like this Pacers team, and not just because I live in Indianapolis. Given the fact that the game started an hour before the Bulls-Lakers game, I was able to watch the first half, and bits and pieces of the 2nd half.

Roy Hibbert is a good player, better than I thought he was going to be by a factor of 10,000,000,000. Hibbert showed again last night that he is a strong rebounder, with a deceptively wide array of post moves, and he has shown the ability to get up and down the floor. The Pacers issue is that, after Hibbert, they do not have a lot of size and rebounding.

With that being said, the Pacers have a lot of wing type players with the ability to knock down threes. Everyone knows about Danny Granger, but Brandon Rush played really well last night. He plays great defense off the bench, and is a pretty good scorer who knocks down open threes. He is exactly the type of player that the Bulls are missing at the two (he is like Keith Bogans, only good).

The Bobcats are not a great team, so it really was no surprise that the Pacers had a nice win.

Onto The Main Event

The Bulls came out looking awful last night, and I think that Keith Bogans had quite a bit to do with that. Bogans is a fine defender. He is the only player other than Deng with the ability to guard Kobe for extended stretches (and Deng put in a lot of work last night defending Kobe). Bogans missed a few open threes and Kobe was really just not guarding him at all during the first quarter.

The offense was better when Ronnie Brewer came on the floor. Every basketball coach I have ever played for would have had an aneurysm watching Brewer's elbow on his jump shot, but Brewer was a huge reason the Bulls survived the bad first quarter and actually had a lead heading into the half. Last night, however, was further evidence that the Bulls have not yet figured out how best to utilize their options at the two. Korver is obviously the best offensive option, but he contributes as much on the defensive end as a DH(as an aside, I think I patterned my basketball game in high school after Korver - good shooter, no ability or willingness to play defense). Brewer does not have the size or strength that Bogans has when it comes to guarding a player like Kobe.

The second half, however, was Derrick Rose's half. Rose just broke the Lakers in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter. He made Derek Fisher look absolutely foolish, running circles around him to make jump shots and get to the rim. Rose willed the Bulls to a tough win.

Much has been written about Rose's ability to get to the basket and the fact that Rose is the fastest person on the planet with a basketball. Rose's most impressive feat, however, is how has developed his jump shot to the point that no one cringes anymore when he elevates for a three. That is such a testament to his work ethic, and is the main reason the Bulls are in good hands for the foreseeable future.

Rose's jump shot gives the Bulls the ability to run a nice little two man game with Rose and Boozer beyond the pick and roll. Last night, Rose was getting the ball to Boozer on the block and, either (1) Rose's man helped and Boozer kicked it out to Rose for the jumper or (2) Boozer was isolated one on one with his man on the block. Now, I think it is fairly clear that the Bulls have not yet figured out how best to use Boozer, but this was a step in the right direction. When the Bulls finally figure out how to integrate Boozer, they are going to be very tough.

At the end of the day, the Bulls picked up a great win. Rose absolutely broke the Lakers in the last few minutes, and the Bulls defended extremely well throughout. Hopefully there will not be a letdown tonight against the T-Wolves.

Kevin Wilson and the Quest for Mediocrity

Can Kevin Wilson turn around the worst football program in the Big 10? No one outside the Hoosier state appears to be concerned that Kevin Wilson has unleashed some sort of sleeping giant. Indiana has a history bereft of any gridiron success. Not even Illinois fans can empathize with how terrible Indiana football has been over the last century. Indiana has been to a grand total of 9 bowl games in their entire history. Since 1993, they have been to exactly 1 bowl game... in an era where all you have to do is schedule 4 awful teams in non-conference play and win 2 Big 10 games to make a bowl. Bill Mallory was the most effective Indiana football coach in recent history and he had a 38% winning percentage in the Big 10.

Kevin Wilson is a lot like his predecessor Bill Lynch. He understands the offensive side of the game and has run high powered offenses at Northwestern and Oklahoma. Wilson's issues are two fold. Can Wilson recruit at a school without a football history and without any natural recruiting base? And if he can recruit, will he be able to bring in the type of defensive coordinator he will need to run the defense? If Wilson is going to succeed at Indiana, he needs to be able to out recruit Zook and Ferentz in Chicago, and Indiana will need to be willing to pay for a talented defensive coordinator.

At the end of the day, if Kevin Wilson can bring some respectability to Indiana football, Wilson will move on to a bigger payday and Indiana football will take a step in the right direction.

5-minute Major [10 December 2010]

The Colts snapped the longest losing streak of Peyton Manning's career behind his 319/2TD performance, knocking off the Titans 30-28.....Cincinatti signed late-season hero Jay Bruce to a 6-year/$61 million deal.....Xavier held its breath as Shelvin Mack missed a buzzer-beating three and the Musketeers avenged their last home loss, which was to Butler 2 years ago.....Ohio State strengthened its status as severely overrated (in the mind of this author) barely eking out a victory over giant IUPUI, who led by as much as 9 points.....The Buckeyes let this team linger even with a 40-point night from Jared Sullinger.....In an effort to stay as capricious as possible, Brett Favre did not practice Thursday contrary to his Wednesday claims.....It looks like Jeff Francoeur was right -- he is an every day player -- but, he had to sign with the Royals for 1 year/$2.5 million to prove it.....Twins added probable bullpen help dealing J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris to the Oriels for prospects Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.....The Blues got some revenge for the 8-1 thrashing the Blue Jackets handed them last month; Alex Steen's power play goal less than 2 minutes into the first period set the tone in St. Louis's 4-1 win.....at ease.