The Hobbserver is back! Yes my loyal reader, I'm writing again with a goal to make two posts a week. Much like Cosmo Kramer's late Merv Griffin show, we took some time off to re-tool and are back - scandals and animals and all.
There's a lot to talk about in the world of sports. The Illini and UCLA will meet in what is likely to be the worst bowl game ever. Illinois basketball is off to an 8-0 start and is back in the Top 25. The NBA released its schedule and the Bulls are allegedly chasing Dwight Howard. With all that going on in the Hobbserver world, however, Kenny Williams was the man who forced my triumphant return to be about my beloved Chicago White Sox.
Kenny Williams made his first step on the road to rebuilding, trading closer Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for 22 year old minor leaguer Nestor Molina. Why would the Sox trade an affordable closer with a live arm, under team control for the next 3 years (with an additional 3 years of club options) for Nestor Molina? And why do I actually love the trade?
(1) Nestor Molina immediately becomes the White Sox second best prospect (more on number 1 in a minute). Some scouts love Molina. Some don't. According to John Sickels, he was the number 2 prospect in a deep Blue Jays system. Another publication has Molina as the number 44 prospect in baseball period. According to Baseball America, on the other hand, he's a career reliever. The things I know: (1) The Sox scouts love Molina - they would not have traded a valuable chip like Santos for him otherwise. (2) Molina's numbers last year were absurd. In 130+ innings between A and AA, Molina struck out 148 batter and walked 16. That is just an absurd ratio. So even if Molina's stuff is average, you can't teach that kind of control.
(2) Closers are a luxury and their value fluctuates wildly. Santos had a great year last year. But he's 28 years old. His out pitch is a slider (meaning he has to pitch out of the strike zone to get outs). I mean, the Sox didn't move Mariano Rivera here. Plus, in what is likely a rebuilding year, a closer is the last thing you. Accordingly, there's no rationale for not getting value for a closer. I have absolutely no problem with the Sox selling high on Santos.
(3) And then there's the insurance policy - the top prospect in the White Sox system is Addison Reed. Reed was the Sox third round pick in 2010 and advanced insanely quickly through the Sox system last year going from A ball to AAA with an insane WHIP of .738 and 155 Ks in 108+ innings. At AAA Charlotte, Reed allowed 11 base runners in 21 innings. As a poster on Soxtalk.com said today, Addison Reed is "a machine designed to get people out." Reed is your closer next year and is the closer on the next White Sox contender.
(4) Really the only criticism of this trade that I can get behind is that Kenny Williams was too in love with Molina, fixated on him, and didn't explore other ideas that might have netted a greater return. No matter who much you love a prospect, prospects have an extremely high attrition rate. That's why most teams look to get multiple prospects back when they deal an asset. Peter Gammons indicated that Baltimore and Boston would have paid more for Santos. So Williams is taking a gamble that Molina is going to be a #3 starter or better at the next level. There is no room for error with this trade...
So there you have it. I love that the Sox moved Santos. I just really, really hope that Nestor Molina was worth the risk.
More articles - Illinois Basketball, Bears, or a tribute to Ron Zook.
ReplyDeleteThe reason Kenny screwed up this trade is that you say he loved the player, but I'm not even sure he knew who he was getting. He started raving about his play in winter ball this year, but Molina was shut down by the Bluejays and hasn't thrown a pitch in winter ball.
ReplyDeleteThe real concern I have with Kenny is you can't think you're going to win now, and think you're rebuilding. If you think you're doing both you're doing neither and I think thats where Kenny is headed.