Murphy's Pub: Adaptation is good for the soul

As Gene Hackman would say, "My team is on the floor!" Today's Illinois team is the same team we, as Illini fans, are going to have to deal for the next year and a half (Michael Orris, a lightly recruited point guard, is next year's sole addition). Yes, they are going to compete and play hard, and we will love them for that. But they are going to have days like today where they just cannot buy a basket (contrast today to the Gonzaga game).

When you are a fan of a basketball team, there are things you can forgive (a team that competes hard and just misses shots - much of today's issues) and there are things you cannot get over. Today, there were several instances where the Illini made mistakes a 7th grade team wouldn't have made.

Case in point. Illinois cut UNLV's lead today to 8 late in the second half. They had the ball. Sam Maniscalco (a fine point guard, but one who is already horribly overrated by the Illini fan base - the people who say that Maniscalco is better than McCamey was are insane) pounded the ball at the top of the key for 25 seconds and the Illini turned the ball over. Now, if you have played basketball, you know that the fault on this particular play isn't on Maniscalco. The point guard brings the ball down, the big men set screens, and you have two guys popping out to the wing, the point guard makes the entry pass and the offense is moving. When no one popped out on that particular play, Bruce Weber needed to take a timeout and just berate his team. This is basic basketball. You can't play winning basketball when your point guard is wearing out the ball at the top of the key without any outlet.

The problem for the Illini is that they only really have three solid offensive options. Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson are solid Big 10 guards. When they have it going (and DJ did today with 17 points and 5 threes), you can run offense through either of them (see Brandon Paul late against St. Bonaventure). But Illinois needs to run offense through Myers Leonard to maximize their potential.

Leonard is a lottery pick in waiting. He's a 7'1" freak athlete. He has soft touch offensively (1-6 from the line today notwithstanding) and he's a surprisingly good passer for a guy his size. Not to go all Gene Hackman on the readers (reader), but any time Leonard is on the floor, he absolutely must get a touch in the post. This is simple. Guard pops out to the wing, Leonard posts and gets the ball. Double team comes, Leonard finds the open man. Double team doesn't come, Leonard scores. Bruce Weber MUST run the offense through his best player and if he doesn't, then he is over coaching and needs to go.

And here is the problem with coaches like Weber. They put the system ahead of the pieces on the floor. Weber's offense was perfect for the '05 team. Absolutely spot on perfect. But the '05 team isn't walking through the Assembly Hall tunnel. Other than Leonard, there isn't an NBA player on the roster. So simplify your offense. Play to your team's strengths. This Illinois team has plenty of strengths. They are very strong defensively they compete like mad, but other than DJ and maybe Maniscalco, they aren't going to shoot anyone out of the gym. And other than Brandon Paul, they don't have a guard that can create their own offense.

So let this be an informal plea to Bruce Weber. Simplify your system, run offense through Leonard, play to your team's strengths, and get the most out of a likeable, hard working Illini squad.

Cheers from Murphy's Pub.

Kenny Williams Makes a Trade!

The Hobbserver is back! Yes my loyal reader, I'm writing again with a goal to make two posts a week. Much like Cosmo Kramer's late Merv Griffin show, we took some time off to re-tool and are back - scandals and animals and all.

There's a lot to talk about in the world of sports. The Illini and UCLA will meet in what is likely to be the worst bowl game ever. Illinois basketball is off to an 8-0 start and is back in the Top 25. The NBA released its schedule and the Bulls are allegedly chasing Dwight Howard. With all that going on in the Hobbserver world, however, Kenny Williams was the man who forced my triumphant return to be about my beloved Chicago White Sox.

Kenny Williams made his first step on the road to rebuilding, trading closer Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for 22 year old minor leaguer Nestor Molina. Why would the Sox trade an affordable closer with a live arm, under team control for the next 3 years (with an additional 3 years of club options) for Nestor Molina? And why do I actually love the trade?

(1) Nestor Molina immediately becomes the White Sox second best prospect (more on number 1 in a minute). Some scouts love Molina. Some don't. According to John Sickels, he was the number 2 prospect in a deep Blue Jays system. Another publication has Molina as the number 44 prospect in baseball period. According to Baseball America, on the other hand, he's a career reliever. The things I know: (1) The Sox scouts love Molina - they would not have traded a valuable chip like Santos for him otherwise. (2) Molina's numbers last year were absurd. In 130+ innings between A and AA, Molina struck out 148 batter and walked 16. That is just an absurd ratio. So even if Molina's stuff is average, you can't teach that kind of control.

(2) Closers are a luxury and their value fluctuates wildly. Santos had a great year last year. But he's 28 years old. His out pitch is a slider (meaning he has to pitch out of the strike zone to get outs). I mean, the Sox didn't move Mariano Rivera here. Plus, in what is likely a rebuilding year, a closer is the last thing you. Accordingly, there's no rationale for not getting value for a closer. I have absolutely no problem with the Sox selling high on Santos.

(3) And then there's the insurance policy - the top prospect in the White Sox system is Addison Reed. Reed was the Sox third round pick in 2010 and advanced insanely quickly through the Sox system last year going from A ball to AAA with an insane WHIP of .738 and 155 Ks in 108+ innings. At AAA Charlotte, Reed allowed 11 base runners in 21 innings. As a poster on Soxtalk.com said today, Addison Reed is "a machine designed to get people out." Reed is your closer next year and is the closer on the next White Sox contender.

(4) Really the only criticism of this trade that I can get behind is that Kenny Williams was too in love with Molina, fixated on him, and didn't explore other ideas that might have netted a greater return. No matter who much you love a prospect, prospects have an extremely high attrition rate. That's why most teams look to get multiple prospects back when they deal an asset. Peter Gammons indicated that Baltimore and Boston would have paid more for Santos. So Williams is taking a gamble that Molina is going to be a #3 starter or better at the next level. There is no room for error with this trade...

So there you have it. I love that the Sox moved Santos. I just really, really hope that Nestor Molina was worth the risk.