I love sports history. Nothing makes me happier than an inane argument about baseball hall of famers (anyone who has sat through my “Frank Thomas is a no doubt first ballot Hall of Famer" can attest to the unnecessary passion I bring to my arguments). While baseball has its Hall of Fame, the NBA has its 50 Greatest Players of All-Time. Every year, come June, we get a chance to debate and dissect the historical importance of athletes. Baseball is a game that we ultimately quantify by numbers (have you ever heard anyone argue that Dimaggio was a better hitter than Ted Williams because Williams never won a title). But in basketball, titles are the true mark of the greats. That is why a convincing argument can be made that Bill Russell was a greater player than Wilt Chamberlin, even though the numbers tells us that cannot possibly be true. Kobe enhanced his historical legacy by winning in ‘09 and ‘10 because he finally won without Shaq. No one can rationally argue that Kevin Garnett was better than Tim Duncan because the rings (4-1) tell us all we need to know. With all that being said, two players stand at a historical crossroads this year: Lebron James and Dirk Nowitzki.
Dirk
Dirk is entering his second finals (losing to Miami in ‘06) and has been, hands down, the best player this postseason. Who do we compare Dirk to historically? From a playing style standpoint, there is no apt comparison. Dirk is a 7 foot jump shooter who has developed a stunning low post game and is a German to boot. No one in history had his offensive game. And as a quick tangent, I blame Dirk for the erosion of low post skills in the NBA. Where is the Kevin McHale, the Hakeem Olajuwon, the Tim Duncan among the current crop of NBA players? All the big guys want to be jump shooters. Think of the big men still in the playoffs: Boozer, Bosh and Dirk are all way more comfortable facing up than with their back to the basket. Dirk made tall jump shooting attainable. But I digress.
If I am looking to compare Dirk historically, his contemporaries are probably Barkley (‘93 MVP, ‘93 finals runner up), Malone (‘97 and '99 MVP, Finals runner up in ‘97 and ‘98), Ewing (runner up in ‘94 and ‘99) and Garnett ('04 MVP,‘08 Finals winner). I would have an extremely difficult time arguing against any one of those guys being outside the top 40 players ever (I could make a case against Ewing but that’s it). Depending on how you feel about KG (ie, do you blame him for Minnesota’s years of mediocrity), doesn’t a title put Dirk ahead of that entire crowd?
Dirk’s legacy has taken some shots. His ‘07 MVP award is consistently derided because Dallas was knocked out in the first round by 8 seed Golden State that same year. He missed a free throw that would have tied the game late in Game 3 of the ‘06 Finals and griped about the refs (valid gripes, the Mavs were playing 5 on 7 from Game 3 on, but still) constantly as Dallas saw a 2-0 lead evaporate, ultimately losing in six (causing everyone to forget how unreal Dirk was until that point). A title in 2011 puts all that behind him. I say it puts him ahead of Barkley, ahead of Malone, and yes, ahead of Garnett as the second best power forward of his generation (no one is catching Duncan).
Where would a title put him among active players? Well, he’s behind Kobe, Shaq, Duncan and Lebron (he’s a 2 time MVP already, I don’t care that he hasn’t won a title... but we’ll get to him in a minute). And I have him ahead of Nash, Garnett and Wade. If he wins a title this year, Dirk becomes the 5th best active player historically. In my lifetime, he’s behind Jordan, Magic, Bird, Isiah, Kareem and Olajuwon as well (and maybe Pippen). A title this year makes Dirk one of the 10 best players of my lifetime. Without a title? He ranks right with Malone, Barkley, Ewing, Iverson, Nash and Kidd as the best players in my lifetime with no titles to their names.
Lebron
What is Lebron’s legacy going to be? Maybe the most difficult thing for Lebron is that he is not the player we expect him to be. We want him to have Jordan’s killer instinct. Lebron goes to Miami in free agency, taking the path of least resistance to a title. We want him to be Magic running the break. Lebron has never shown a desire to be a point guard. We want him to average a triple double. No one has even come close to that since Oscar Robertson back in an era with inflated numbers. Expectations on him are so high, he is destined to never live up to them. A title might let Lebron be Lebron. Comparing him to Jordan or Magic does a disservice to everyone involved.
A title for Lebron legitimately makes him one of the five best players of my lifetime. He would not have the resume of Jordan, Bird, Magic, Isiah, Kareem or Olajuwon. But he would win his first at 26, two years ahead of Jordan. In my lifetime, Magic, Bird, Jordan, and Duncan are the only players with multiple MVPs who also won a title (I don’t count Kareem since his last MVP was in ‘80 and Moses Malone won his last MVP in ‘83, the year I was born). Shaq, Kobe and Olajuwon never won multiple MVPs (though each of them probably should have). Malone and Nash never won a title. That is a pretty impressive list.
Lebron is nearly a mortal lock to be the best player of his generation. Bird and Magic dominated the 80s. Jordan was the player of the 90s (with Olajuwon filling the role for the two non-Jordan years). Shaq and Duncan ran the show for the first part of the ‘00s. Kobe owned the last half. Lebron’s only real competitors are Derrick Rose (youngest MVP in league history), Kevin Durant and Dwight Howard, but Lebron is leaps and bounds ahead of those guys. The glaring hole in Lebron’s resume? No title. If the Heat let the Bulls back in the series or if they ultimately fall to Dallas, that hole will be a little more glaring.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
The One That Got Away
Game 4 was the One That Got Away. Looking back on Game 4, there isn’t a whole lot to be critical of. I disagreed with clearing out the floor for Rose with 8 seconds left at the end of regulation (especially given how unreal Lebron was defensively on Rose), but I understand the decision. So without further ado, a breakdown of my thoughts on Game 4:
(1) Ronnie Brewer was spectacular. When you are defending Wade or Lebron, you know that they are going to make shots. Your job is to make it as difficult as possible for them to make shots. Brewer did that on Lebron in the 1st Quarter when Deng picked up his 2nd foul and he did it in the 4th Quarter on Wade. Brewer even hit a huge 3 in overtime that kept the Bulls fading hopes alive. In a series where Kyle Korver has been non-existent, Brewer’s minutes late kept the Bulls alive.
(2) Welcome back Carlos Boozer. I don’t know why I thought Boozer was “The Back to the Basket Scorer the Bulls missed” since he is amazingly ineffective with his back to the basket, but he has finished well around the basket, made jumpers, made free throws, and rebounded over the last two games. If you told me Boozer would get back to back 20-10s at Miami, I would have expected at least one win. Unfortunately, Boozer still is a complete and utter liability defensively. His soft foul on the Lebron “And 1" late and his dubious flagrant foul on Bosh forced Thibs to put a cold Taj Gibson in up 84-83. Taj bit on a Bosh shot fake and hit a 12 foot jumper.
(3) Lebron James is a freak of nature. Lebron’s defense on Rose gave me PTSD style flashbacks to March 2001 when Richard Jefferson absolutely locked down Frank Williams in the Elite 8. I think it is important for everyone to take a step back, remember that Rose is 22 years old and the only player that can create offense for himself on a 62 win, Eastern Conference Final participant. Rose will improve, the Bulls will continue to play great team defense, and they will come back hungrier next year. Tip your cap to Lebron. But for his late game heroics in Games 2 and 4, the Bulls are up 3-1 heading back to Chicago to close the series out. Lebron may be an egomanical (see his tattoo of the “Chosen One” on his back), poorly advised (see the Decision), overgrown child, but there is no denying the fact that he is the most destructive athletic force in the NBA and the most dominant player in the game today. So there you have it, I can give credit where credit is due.
(4) Loul Deng deserves a lot of credit this year. In order for this Bulls team to have the season they had, two things had to happen. The first is that Rose had to evolve into an elite player (check). The second was that Luol Deng had to accept his role as the third option offensively and, most importantly, his role as the Bulls high minute, defensive stopper. Deng did both of those things. Watching him harass Lebron this series has been a thing of beauty. Watching Deng trudge off the court at the end of Game 4, you could tell that he left everything he had on the floor. So long as Deng continues to accept that role, the Bulls will be contenders for a long time.
(5) This series is not over. The Bulls were in Games 2, 3 and 4 in the 4th Quarter. If they can win Game 5 Thursday and figure out a way to get Rose going offensively (how good has Miami’s defense on him been? Since Game 1, Rose has had no room to breathe), the Bulls have shown they can play with Miami on the road. This will take a Herculean effort, but the Bulls are not dead in the water yet.
(1) Ronnie Brewer was spectacular. When you are defending Wade or Lebron, you know that they are going to make shots. Your job is to make it as difficult as possible for them to make shots. Brewer did that on Lebron in the 1st Quarter when Deng picked up his 2nd foul and he did it in the 4th Quarter on Wade. Brewer even hit a huge 3 in overtime that kept the Bulls fading hopes alive. In a series where Kyle Korver has been non-existent, Brewer’s minutes late kept the Bulls alive.
(2) Welcome back Carlos Boozer. I don’t know why I thought Boozer was “The Back to the Basket Scorer the Bulls missed” since he is amazingly ineffective with his back to the basket, but he has finished well around the basket, made jumpers, made free throws, and rebounded over the last two games. If you told me Boozer would get back to back 20-10s at Miami, I would have expected at least one win. Unfortunately, Boozer still is a complete and utter liability defensively. His soft foul on the Lebron “And 1" late and his dubious flagrant foul on Bosh forced Thibs to put a cold Taj Gibson in up 84-83. Taj bit on a Bosh shot fake and hit a 12 foot jumper.
(3) Lebron James is a freak of nature. Lebron’s defense on Rose gave me PTSD style flashbacks to March 2001 when Richard Jefferson absolutely locked down Frank Williams in the Elite 8. I think it is important for everyone to take a step back, remember that Rose is 22 years old and the only player that can create offense for himself on a 62 win, Eastern Conference Final participant. Rose will improve, the Bulls will continue to play great team defense, and they will come back hungrier next year. Tip your cap to Lebron. But for his late game heroics in Games 2 and 4, the Bulls are up 3-1 heading back to Chicago to close the series out. Lebron may be an egomanical (see his tattoo of the “Chosen One” on his back), poorly advised (see the Decision), overgrown child, but there is no denying the fact that he is the most destructive athletic force in the NBA and the most dominant player in the game today. So there you have it, I can give credit where credit is due.
(4) Loul Deng deserves a lot of credit this year. In order for this Bulls team to have the season they had, two things had to happen. The first is that Rose had to evolve into an elite player (check). The second was that Luol Deng had to accept his role as the third option offensively and, most importantly, his role as the Bulls high minute, defensive stopper. Deng did both of those things. Watching him harass Lebron this series has been a thing of beauty. Watching Deng trudge off the court at the end of Game 4, you could tell that he left everything he had on the floor. So long as Deng continues to accept that role, the Bulls will be contenders for a long time.
(5) This series is not over. The Bulls were in Games 2, 3 and 4 in the 4th Quarter. If they can win Game 5 Thursday and figure out a way to get Rose going offensively (how good has Miami’s defense on him been? Since Game 1, Rose has had no room to breathe), the Bulls have shown they can play with Miami on the road. This will take a Herculean effort, but the Bulls are not dead in the water yet.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Reflecting on Heat-Bulls
The second half of Game 1 was a dream. The second half of Game 2 was a nightmare. In a world where you are only as good as your last game, but more importantly, where the media and fans assume that the most recent game will necessarily equate to results the rest of the way, everyone handed the Bulls the Eastern Conference crown after an inspired Game 1. Those same people are now handing the crown to Miami after Game 2. Sifting through all that mess, what do we actually know about this series:
(1) Ultimately, the superstars decide the games. Derrick Rose was great in Game 1, he was awful in Game 2. Lebron and Wade were poor in Game 1 and really good in Game 2. It’s not a surprise then that we are even at 1-1. Rose’s Game 1 success was instrumental in his struggles in Game 2. Rose was an effective jump shooter in Game 1. I have written about how Rose is at his best when he attacks. But Miami plays very, very good defense and they have prevented Rose from being successful in the paint in back to back games. Steve Kerr harped on this Game 2 but it bears repeating. When Wade guards Rose, the Bulls need to set high screens for him with whoever Bibby or Mike Miller or Mario Chalmers is guarding. The Heat were extremely successful in the 4th quarter last night getting Lebron matched up with Korver and Rose and away from Deng who has made things very, very difficult on Lebron.
(2) Kyle Korver may not have a place in this series. I was really looking forward to Korver helping the Bulls offensively in 4th quarters this series, but Korver cannot guard Wade or Lebron and last night showed exactly how detrimental to matching up Rose on Wade is to the Bulls offensively. Now, if Korver knocks down shots, I’m probably singing a different tune today. And if Rose gets a rest at the start of the 4th quarter, he probably has the legs to both adequately defend Wade and remain effective offensively. The fact remains, however, that if Korver is on the floor, the Bulls only player who can create his own shot is expending tons of energy on the defensive end which is clearly detrimental to Rose’s offense. Also worth mentioning, my favorite use of Korver is when the Bulls bring him off screens and he catches around the elbow. For ease of explanation, let’s say Taj Gibson sets the screen, Haslem is guarding Taj, and Bibby is guarding Korver. If Haslem jumps out on the screen at Korver, the Bulls have a mismatch and Korver can find Taj cutting hard to the basket alone. If Haslem stays home, Korver has an open 15-18 footer. But I don’t remember the Bulls using that set once in the 4th quarter last night when they were really struggling to find offense. If Korver is not helping on offense, the Bulls need to have Ronnie Brewer or Bogans on the floor in the 4th quarter.
(3) Udonis Haslem is the guy that can swing this series for Miami. Chris Bosh is not an energy guy. Joel Anthony is a stiff. Jamaal Magloire and Juwan Howard are done. Ilguaskas and Dampier haven’t even suited up yet. Haslem, on the other hand, brings a swagger and energy that absolutely turned Game 2. The Bulls picked up something like 7 offensive rebounds in the 1st quarter against the Heat’s horrible frontcourt. Haslem came in and changed the energy and changed the course of the game, potentially saving the Heat’s season. Ultimately, Haslem is not going to score like he did in Game 2, and he clearly does not have the fitness level to give the Heat more than 20 good minutes a night, but the Heat don’t need him to score, they need his energy and hustle. He is the only Heat big that can counter the energy that Noah, Asik and Taj bring to the floor.
(4) This series is going to be an absolute war. You have two extremely good defensive teams, three of the five best players in the league, and scrappy energy guys in spades (Noah, Asik, Haslem, Taj). Is it any surprise that the team who won the rebounding battle won each of the first two games (Heat outrebounded the Bulls 45-41 in Game 2). Going into the series, my heart said Bulls in 7 but my head said Heat in 6. Nothing I have seen thus far has changed that. For the Bulls to win this series, they need to get to the majority of loose balls, out rebound the Heat every game, challenge Wade and Lebron every single time they attack the basket (loved how Asik looked like a volleyball blocker at the net on that Wade drive in the 4th quarter). 3 of the 4 best offensive players in this series play for Miami so the Bulls need to win the intangible battle. They did in Game 1 and until Haslem showed up last night, they were doing the same thing in Game 2. Steal one in Miami and the Bulls are back in the driver’s seat. I cannot wait. Go Bulls.
(1) Ultimately, the superstars decide the games. Derrick Rose was great in Game 1, he was awful in Game 2. Lebron and Wade were poor in Game 1 and really good in Game 2. It’s not a surprise then that we are even at 1-1. Rose’s Game 1 success was instrumental in his struggles in Game 2. Rose was an effective jump shooter in Game 1. I have written about how Rose is at his best when he attacks. But Miami plays very, very good defense and they have prevented Rose from being successful in the paint in back to back games. Steve Kerr harped on this Game 2 but it bears repeating. When Wade guards Rose, the Bulls need to set high screens for him with whoever Bibby or Mike Miller or Mario Chalmers is guarding. The Heat were extremely successful in the 4th quarter last night getting Lebron matched up with Korver and Rose and away from Deng who has made things very, very difficult on Lebron.
(2) Kyle Korver may not have a place in this series. I was really looking forward to Korver helping the Bulls offensively in 4th quarters this series, but Korver cannot guard Wade or Lebron and last night showed exactly how detrimental to matching up Rose on Wade is to the Bulls offensively. Now, if Korver knocks down shots, I’m probably singing a different tune today. And if Rose gets a rest at the start of the 4th quarter, he probably has the legs to both adequately defend Wade and remain effective offensively. The fact remains, however, that if Korver is on the floor, the Bulls only player who can create his own shot is expending tons of energy on the defensive end which is clearly detrimental to Rose’s offense. Also worth mentioning, my favorite use of Korver is when the Bulls bring him off screens and he catches around the elbow. For ease of explanation, let’s say Taj Gibson sets the screen, Haslem is guarding Taj, and Bibby is guarding Korver. If Haslem jumps out on the screen at Korver, the Bulls have a mismatch and Korver can find Taj cutting hard to the basket alone. If Haslem stays home, Korver has an open 15-18 footer. But I don’t remember the Bulls using that set once in the 4th quarter last night when they were really struggling to find offense. If Korver is not helping on offense, the Bulls need to have Ronnie Brewer or Bogans on the floor in the 4th quarter.
(3) Udonis Haslem is the guy that can swing this series for Miami. Chris Bosh is not an energy guy. Joel Anthony is a stiff. Jamaal Magloire and Juwan Howard are done. Ilguaskas and Dampier haven’t even suited up yet. Haslem, on the other hand, brings a swagger and energy that absolutely turned Game 2. The Bulls picked up something like 7 offensive rebounds in the 1st quarter against the Heat’s horrible frontcourt. Haslem came in and changed the energy and changed the course of the game, potentially saving the Heat’s season. Ultimately, Haslem is not going to score like he did in Game 2, and he clearly does not have the fitness level to give the Heat more than 20 good minutes a night, but the Heat don’t need him to score, they need his energy and hustle. He is the only Heat big that can counter the energy that Noah, Asik and Taj bring to the floor.
(4) This series is going to be an absolute war. You have two extremely good defensive teams, three of the five best players in the league, and scrappy energy guys in spades (Noah, Asik, Haslem, Taj). Is it any surprise that the team who won the rebounding battle won each of the first two games (Heat outrebounded the Bulls 45-41 in Game 2). Going into the series, my heart said Bulls in 7 but my head said Heat in 6. Nothing I have seen thus far has changed that. For the Bulls to win this series, they need to get to the majority of loose balls, out rebound the Heat every game, challenge Wade and Lebron every single time they attack the basket (loved how Asik looked like a volleyball blocker at the net on that Wade drive in the 4th quarter). 3 of the 4 best offensive players in this series play for Miami so the Bulls need to win the intangible battle. They did in Game 1 and until Haslem showed up last night, they were doing the same thing in Game 2. Steal one in Miami and the Bulls are back in the driver’s seat. I cannot wait. Go Bulls.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
What is Wrong With the Bulls??
There has been a significant amount of criticism thrown Derrick Rose’s way in this playoffs. Rose has defined “volume shooter.” And beyond occasional moments of offensive brilliance from Kyle Korver and Luol Deng, Rose has had no help offensively. The issue with Rose, however, is not the number of shots he has taken, but rather the quality of the shots.
Derrick Rose is Lebron James in a smaller package. The freak athleticism, the unnatural ability to finish at the rim in spite of contact. But Rose has the same offensive limitations as Lebron. He isn’t a great three point shooter. Like Lebron, he can become a volume three point shooter. The Hawks have goaded Rose into taking a total of 25 three through four games (he has made 8). I get it. The three is an important part of Rose’s arsenal. The threat of the three forces defenders to go over screens rather than under them. But when you are shooting 33% from three, you should not be taking over 6 of them per game.
Good things happen when Rose attacks the basket. He draws absurd amounts of help meaning that the Bulls bigs have opportunities for easy baskets off the dish or on weakside putbacks. Ultimately, the reason the Bulls and Hawks are tied at 2 right now is that Boozer and Kyle Korver are struggling. They are the two most important offensive players other than Rose on the roster because they are the only other players the Bulls can run offense through. Boozer was effective in Game 3. His effectiveness, however, was 12-18 feet from the basket. Boozer needs to be able to score on the block. Additionally, the only player besides Rose that the Bulls love to run offense through is Korver. The Bulls run Korver off screens constantly for open jump shots or for him to find a big slipping the screen for an easy basket at the rim. Korver’s problems against Atlanta are two fold: (1) he is just 9-30 this series. Korver needs to be a threat offensively for him to have any value whatsoever. (2) The Bulls cannot hide him defensively. Korver cannot guard Jamal Crawford or Joe Johnson. Jeff Teague has been extremely effective against Korver as well. The Bulls like to use Korver late in close games but he has to be able to score to be a net positive for the Bulls under that scenario (note that they will be able to hide Korver against Miami. Korver can “guard” Mike Bibby just fine).
At the end of the day, if Rose attacks the basket tonight, the Chicago home crowd will lift the Bulls to a Game 5 win and we will all feel a lot better about the Bulls chances of moving on to the Conference Finals.
Derrick Rose is Lebron James in a smaller package. The freak athleticism, the unnatural ability to finish at the rim in spite of contact. But Rose has the same offensive limitations as Lebron. He isn’t a great three point shooter. Like Lebron, he can become a volume three point shooter. The Hawks have goaded Rose into taking a total of 25 three through four games (he has made 8). I get it. The three is an important part of Rose’s arsenal. The threat of the three forces defenders to go over screens rather than under them. But when you are shooting 33% from three, you should not be taking over 6 of them per game.
Good things happen when Rose attacks the basket. He draws absurd amounts of help meaning that the Bulls bigs have opportunities for easy baskets off the dish or on weakside putbacks. Ultimately, the reason the Bulls and Hawks are tied at 2 right now is that Boozer and Kyle Korver are struggling. They are the two most important offensive players other than Rose on the roster because they are the only other players the Bulls can run offense through. Boozer was effective in Game 3. His effectiveness, however, was 12-18 feet from the basket. Boozer needs to be able to score on the block. Additionally, the only player besides Rose that the Bulls love to run offense through is Korver. The Bulls run Korver off screens constantly for open jump shots or for him to find a big slipping the screen for an easy basket at the rim. Korver’s problems against Atlanta are two fold: (1) he is just 9-30 this series. Korver needs to be a threat offensively for him to have any value whatsoever. (2) The Bulls cannot hide him defensively. Korver cannot guard Jamal Crawford or Joe Johnson. Jeff Teague has been extremely effective against Korver as well. The Bulls like to use Korver late in close games but he has to be able to score to be a net positive for the Bulls under that scenario (note that they will be able to hide Korver against Miami. Korver can “guard” Mike Bibby just fine).
At the end of the day, if Rose attacks the basket tonight, the Chicago home crowd will lift the Bulls to a Game 5 win and we will all feel a lot better about the Bulls chances of moving on to the Conference Finals.
Monday, May 2, 2011
NBA Playoffs: Previewing the Second Round
The NBA playoffs have reached the Conference Semifinals (a fancy term for the 2nd round) and some very interesting storylines remain. In fact, I could make a very persuasive argument that, even as a Bulls fan, the Bulls-Hawks series is the most blase of the 2nd round matchups (that won’t stop me from devoting lots of words to that series). Without further ado:
(3) Dallas v. (2) LA
This has been repeated ad nauseum, but it really is a fascinating stat that bears repeating here: Dirk and Kobe have never faced off in the playoffs. That is incredible. Over the past decade, four teams have been relevant in the West and each team had a long time superstar associated with them. You had the Duncan Spurs, the Nash Suns, the Dirk Mavericks and the Kobe Lakers. To have two of those superstars never meet in the playoffs is fascinating.
Anyway, this should be a great series. Dallas outplayed Portland in 5 of the 6 games in the first round. Dirk was an assassin late, Jason Kidd looked about 10 years younger than he actually is. Shawn Marion looked like he cared. If Dallas is more than just the Dirk show, they could give the Lakers problems. Ultimately though, this is a fairly good matchup for the Lakers. Kidd cannot penetrate like he once did so he won’t expose the Lakers’ glaring weakness defensively (inability to guard point guards). And Dallas does not have a great defensive matchup for Kobe. I see the Lakers winning this one in 6.
(8) Memphis v. (4) Oklahoma City
Memphis has been outstanding in the playoffs. Zach Randolph has played exactly like Carlos Boozer should play. He is a little unorthodox for a big man, falls in love with his jumper a little too frequently, but when his head is on straight, he is a pretty reliable 20-10 power forward. Plus, he pulls Kendrick Perkins or Serge Ibaka away from the basket where both are not that comfortable defensively. With Marc Gasol and Randolph playing inspired basketball, Memphis is winning the war in the trenches and that was the difference in Game 1.
Russell Westbrook is the Achilles Heel for OKC right now. All the talent in the world, but he is not efficient offensively (settling for jumpers far too often late). And in crunch time, he is taking the ball out of Kevin Durant’s hands. If Westbrook embraces his role as the Robin to Durant’s Batman, OKC should be ok. Perkins veteran experience added to the fact that Kevin Durant is the best player in the series will get OKC through a surprisingly tough 7 games.
(3) Boston v. (2) Miami
This is a very, very interesting series. It is worth noting that Boston pretty clearly made the Kendrick Perkins for Jeff Green trade with this series in mind thinking that Green would be another perimeter defender to throw at Wade and Lebron. With that being said, the two keys to the series are Rajon Rondo and Chris Bosh. Wade is going to get his points. Lebron is going to get his points (though I really think that each guy is, at best, 85% as effective as he would be without the other since they both need the ball to be effective and neither guy is an elite shooter). If Bosh can score against Garnett, the Heat will win in 5 or 6. If Boston is to win, Rondo needs to be a threat offensively. In Game 1, the Heat “guarded” Rondo by playing as far off of him as possible. Mike Bibby in his prime could not have stayed in front of Rondo, so if the Heat are forced to respect a jumpshot, the Celtics gain a huge edge. Ultimately, the Heat had to have Game 1 and need Game 2 as well to set the tone for the series. They cannot go to Boston at 1-1. But Miami has the two best players in this series and I don’t think Rondo will make an impact. Miami in 6.
(5) Atlanta v. (1) Chicago
Not a lot of storylines in this matchup. There isn’t a whole lot of bad blood (Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford are former Bulls, but neither really left on bad terms). This is an ideal matchup for the Bulls. Hinrich is a scrappy, underrated defender, but he isn’t 100% and does not have the elite athleticism to challenge Rose in the air. Atlanta lacks an elite shot blocker to give Rose problems and lacks anyone that can score with Rose on a consistent basis (Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson both have their moments, but neither have showcased the ability to carry Atlanta night in and night out). The key for the Bulls in this series is getting Carlos Boozer going. Boozer was terrible against Indiana. The Bulls will need a healthy, effective Boozer to make it out of the East and this series is the ideal time for Boozer to get going. The Bulls win in 5.
(3) Dallas v. (2) LA
This has been repeated ad nauseum, but it really is a fascinating stat that bears repeating here: Dirk and Kobe have never faced off in the playoffs. That is incredible. Over the past decade, four teams have been relevant in the West and each team had a long time superstar associated with them. You had the Duncan Spurs, the Nash Suns, the Dirk Mavericks and the Kobe Lakers. To have two of those superstars never meet in the playoffs is fascinating.
Anyway, this should be a great series. Dallas outplayed Portland in 5 of the 6 games in the first round. Dirk was an assassin late, Jason Kidd looked about 10 years younger than he actually is. Shawn Marion looked like he cared. If Dallas is more than just the Dirk show, they could give the Lakers problems. Ultimately though, this is a fairly good matchup for the Lakers. Kidd cannot penetrate like he once did so he won’t expose the Lakers’ glaring weakness defensively (inability to guard point guards). And Dallas does not have a great defensive matchup for Kobe. I see the Lakers winning this one in 6.
(8) Memphis v. (4) Oklahoma City
Memphis has been outstanding in the playoffs. Zach Randolph has played exactly like Carlos Boozer should play. He is a little unorthodox for a big man, falls in love with his jumper a little too frequently, but when his head is on straight, he is a pretty reliable 20-10 power forward. Plus, he pulls Kendrick Perkins or Serge Ibaka away from the basket where both are not that comfortable defensively. With Marc Gasol and Randolph playing inspired basketball, Memphis is winning the war in the trenches and that was the difference in Game 1.
Russell Westbrook is the Achilles Heel for OKC right now. All the talent in the world, but he is not efficient offensively (settling for jumpers far too often late). And in crunch time, he is taking the ball out of Kevin Durant’s hands. If Westbrook embraces his role as the Robin to Durant’s Batman, OKC should be ok. Perkins veteran experience added to the fact that Kevin Durant is the best player in the series will get OKC through a surprisingly tough 7 games.
(3) Boston v. (2) Miami
This is a very, very interesting series. It is worth noting that Boston pretty clearly made the Kendrick Perkins for Jeff Green trade with this series in mind thinking that Green would be another perimeter defender to throw at Wade and Lebron. With that being said, the two keys to the series are Rajon Rondo and Chris Bosh. Wade is going to get his points. Lebron is going to get his points (though I really think that each guy is, at best, 85% as effective as he would be without the other since they both need the ball to be effective and neither guy is an elite shooter). If Bosh can score against Garnett, the Heat will win in 5 or 6. If Boston is to win, Rondo needs to be a threat offensively. In Game 1, the Heat “guarded” Rondo by playing as far off of him as possible. Mike Bibby in his prime could not have stayed in front of Rondo, so if the Heat are forced to respect a jumpshot, the Celtics gain a huge edge. Ultimately, the Heat had to have Game 1 and need Game 2 as well to set the tone for the series. They cannot go to Boston at 1-1. But Miami has the two best players in this series and I don’t think Rondo will make an impact. Miami in 6.
(5) Atlanta v. (1) Chicago
Not a lot of storylines in this matchup. There isn’t a whole lot of bad blood (Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford are former Bulls, but neither really left on bad terms). This is an ideal matchup for the Bulls. Hinrich is a scrappy, underrated defender, but he isn’t 100% and does not have the elite athleticism to challenge Rose in the air. Atlanta lacks an elite shot blocker to give Rose problems and lacks anyone that can score with Rose on a consistent basis (Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson both have their moments, but neither have showcased the ability to carry Atlanta night in and night out). The key for the Bulls in this series is getting Carlos Boozer going. Boozer was terrible against Indiana. The Bulls will need a healthy, effective Boozer to make it out of the East and this series is the ideal time for Boozer to get going. The Bulls win in 5.
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